FanDuel NFL: Week 1 DFS Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.

After a long wait, it's finally time to get back to regular-season NFL action. We had an interesting game Thursday, and hopefully the showdown contests went as planned. Now it's time to turn our attention to the main slate, which kicks off Sunday at 1 p.m. EDT. With only one Monday Night Football game this year, we have a 13-game schedule to work with. 

The Games

A lot of the focus of DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of the player pool.

• A few teams stand out above the rest when looking at implied total: Baltimore, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia, Seattle, Jacksonville, Cincinnati and Miami.
• A few games appear particularly stackable based on implied total: Cincinnati at Cleveland, Miami at Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville at Indianapolis and Los Angeles Rams at Seattle.

Value Options

This section will highlight players who project well on a point-per-dollar basis. DFS analysis will often focus on getting 3x return on a player's salary, or another similar mark. This is only a part of the analysis but can help identify potential salary savers or building blocks for lineups.

• J.K. Dobbins vs. HOU ($6,500)

Dobbins faced an uneven 2022 season, but he closed the year in excellent form by racking up 397 yards and one touchdown in his last four games. It appeared he may have another season of questionable health after he began training camp on the PUP list, though that may have had more to do with his contract than an actual injury. Regardless, he has had no reported health concerns since reporting to camp Aug. 14. This is also a good time to get into the difference between FanDuel and DraftKings. Dobbins hasn't shown much ability as a pass catcher in the league, but with 0.5 PPR scoring that deficiency is at least slightly covered up. Without yardage bonuses (also used in DK scoring), touchdowns are king. Rostering the top back from a team with the highest implied total is a good way to target trips to the end zone.

• Jayden Reed at CHI ($5,000)

Trusting a rookie in his debut is a risk, but Green Bay is running out of healthy and reliable pass-catchers. Both Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson are battling hamstring injuries, and Watson was ruled out Friday afternoon. That means Reed should get on the field plenty, with targets to go around. Reed should see a decent amount of Kyler Gordon as well, who struggled quite in coverage as a rookie.

Other Value Options

RB Dameon Pierce at BAL ($6,200)

RB Raheem Mostert at LAC ($5,900

WR Jahan Dotson vs. ARI ($6,100)

WR Treylon Burks at NO ($5,700)

WR Jordan Addison vs. TB ($5,500)

TE Gerald Everett vs. MIA ($5,500)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo at NO ($5,100)

TE Juwan Johnson vs. TEN ($5,100)

Stacks to Consider

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers  

This has the potential to be the game of the week. Both teams were inside the top seven in pass rate over expectation last season, and there's little reason to anticipate that changing. The Dolphins' coaching staff and offensive personnel have largely remained static since last season. In addition to the pass-heavy attack and great implied total, we also know targets will be extremely condensed between Tyreek Hill ($8,800) and Jaylen Waddle ($7,900). There's no tight end, running back or other wide receiver likely to demand much attention from Tua Tagovailoa ($7,700).

The story is a bit different for the Chargers, which makes them slightly less appealing despite being the favorite. To start positively, the addition of Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator should help the offense. He's promised to open the offense and take advantage of Justin Herbert's ($8,100) rocket arm, rather than limiting him to short areas of the field. Unlike Miami, targets could be allocated more evenly. Keenan Allen ($8,000) and Mike Williams ($7,100) will surely lead the way, and given the scoring system, I'd prefer Williams at his price. 

The split in snaps and targets is less clear between Joshua Palmer ($5,300) and Quentin Johnston ($5,100), with Palmer reportedly holding the edge for the time being. However, he was disappointing as the team's third receiver last season, and there isn't a particularly good reason to expect that to change just because the calendar flipped. Of course, Austin Ekeler ($9,000) will also be more involved as a pass catcher than most backs. He's an interesting stack option with Herbert, because traditional advice is to not stack the quarterback and running back on the same team. That's often sound logic, but Ekeler's involvement in the passing game makes him unique, and the duo would also make the roster build different in larger field tournaments. Finally, don't forget about Gerald Everett ($5,500). He won't project well but is another way to differentiate while hoping for a touchdown.

The downside of these stacks is the cost and projected popularity of the teams.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have the reputation of being an old-school offense that is hesitant to air the ball out. The numbers tell us a different story, as they were one of only nine teams with a positive pass rate over expectation last year. The addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,300) could diffuse targets a bit, but DK Metcalf ($7,700) and Tyler Lockett ($6,800) will be the keys to the offense — particularly early. The matchup is also exceptional as Ahkello Witherspoon and Derion Kendrick are arguably the worst starting cornerback duo in the league. There's some risk Geno Smith ($7,200) can't repeat his magical 2022 campaign, but any struggles should come in more difficult matchups.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns LOGO]

There's a good amount of risk in this matchup. Joe Burrow ($7,900) was sidelined by a calf injury all of training camp. While not the same situation as last season when he was recovering from an appendectomy, we did see that he got off to a slow start with limited practice. The concerns about Deshaun Watson ($7,400) are clear. He started to come around at the close of last season, but he certainly wasn't the electric playmaker we had previously seen.

As for the pass catchers, Ja'Marr Chase ($8,500) stands out above the rest and there's no explanation necessary as to his appeal. Amari Cooper ($6,700) was interestingly used as a big-play threat in preseason, and if that usage continues, he's a good fit on FD — particularly at the price. Tee Higgins ($7,400) is the final of the elite options.

The nice thing about this stack is that there are some peripheral options that are more appealing than in the other highlighted games. Elijah Moore ($5,700) should operate as the possession option among the Browns' receiving corps. That role makes him a better option on DK, but he should still have a significant role in the offense. Tyler Boyd ($5,400) was an afterthought when both Chase and Higgins were healthy last season, but he's likely to be ignored in large-field contests. Irv Smith ($4,900) also projects for a peripheral role, but if he finds his way to the end zone he's on his way to providing good value.

High-Priced Heroes

• Lamar Jackson vs. HOU ($8,900)

We highlighted Baltimore's offense once before, but Jackson should be a good building block at quarterback. He has revamped offensive weapons and is obviously a dual threat. Add in the matchup, and there is a recipe for a massive game. Jackson wasn't viewed in the same tier as the elite quarterbacks for much of draft season, but he popped FD scores of 42.62 and 40.42 in two of the first three weeks last season. That doesn't mean he'll surge again to begin 2023, but it serves as a reminder that he's capable of elite performances. It's also worth noting that neither Josh Allen nor Patrick Mahomes is on the main slate. Jalen Hurts ($9,000) draws the Patriots, so the matchup should be on Jackson's side.

• Chris Olave vs. TEN ($7,300)

Derek Carr isn't an elite quarterback, but unlike last year, there's at least an adult in the room at the position in New Orleans. Michael Thomas ($6,000) has to prove he's anything near the quality of player he used to be, and the other two primary Saints pass catchers project to be big play or red zone threats in Rashid Shaheed ($5,400) and Juwan Johnson ($5,100). That should Olave with all the targets he can handle in a matchup against a poor secondary.

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• Marvin Mims vs. LV ($4,700)

There's been some optimism about the status of Jerry Jeudy (hamstring), but, bluntly, I'm not buying it. If he is out (confirm that Sunday), Mims is in a spot to immediately step into a top-two role in Denver, alongside Courtland Sutton ($5,900). The Broncos offense still has questions, but the Vegas defense has more.

Salary-Saving Options

QB Anthony Richardson vs. JAX ($6,700)

QB Baker Mayfield at MIN ($6,300)

RB Tank Bigsby at IND ($5,000)

RB Zach Charbonnet vs LAR ($4,800)

WR Zay Flowers vs. HOU ($5,500)

WR Alec Pierce vs. JAX ($5,200)

WR Kendrick Bourne vs. PHI ($4,900)

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