Exploiting the Matchups: Week 16 Start/Sit

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Updated on December 23, 2021 2:54PM EST

This isn't what any of us hoped for or imagined, but it's the hand we've been dealt and we don't have much choice but to play it. There's a decent chance at least one of the guys I write about below will land on the reserve/COVID-19 list before his game, and there's a better-than-decent chance that additional cases across the league late in the week will lead to other upgrades and downgrades in matchups, depending on whether a player's own team or the opponent is affected.

For now, our matchup analysis is based on the state of things Thursday morning, with the stipulation that everything is subject to change (more so than usual). The coronavirus-related absences are obviously a massive factor this week, but we'll also make sure to touch on some of the stuff that's more solid, as it's hard to know at this stage which players will and won't be removed from the reserve/COVID-19 list before Sunday, apart from the cases where we have confirmation the player is unvaccinated (e.g. Cole Beasley, Aaron Rodgers). Most of the time we don't really know, and even if we do know that someone is vaccinated it doesn't necessarily mean they'll be able to test negative on back-to-back days before the game.

Good luck to everyone (besides my opponents) this week. We'll probably need it.

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

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Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow (vs. BAL)

37% started

Burrow already dismantled the Ravens in Baltimore (Week 7) and now gets to face an even thinner version of their injury-riddled secondary in this AFC North rematch. Three of the Ravens' Week 1 starters in the defensive backfield are out for the season, with the other two on the reserve/COVID-19 list (S Chuck Clark) or in concussion protocol (slot corner Tavon Young). Even if Clark and Young play, the Ravens likely will be missing other starters, both in the secondary and front seven.

Ravens currently have 24 defensive players on the 53-man roster
🏈13 practiced Wednesday
🏈2 did not practice
🏈9 are on reserve/COVID-19 list
Baltimore (8-6) plays at Cincinnati (8-6) with first place on the line Sunday.
— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) December 22, 2021

Honorable Mentions: Justin Herbert, LAC at HOU; Matt Ryan, ATL vs. DET

Running Backs

Justin Jackson (vs. HOU)

6% started

Jackson rightfully became a popular waiver add after Austin Ekeler hit the COVID-19 list Wednesday, but there's appeal for the upcoming matchup even if Ekeler plays. For starters, Ek was already dealing with an ankle injury, which is why Jackson took 54 percent of the snaps last week against Kansas City, finishing with season highs for carries (13), rushing yards (86) and total yards (99). That keeps Jackson in FLEX/RB3 territory if Ekeler suits up, with the Chargers favored by 10 over a Houston team that's allowed the sixth most points to RBs. (Make sure to start Jackson if Ekeler is out, unless it means benching a certified RB1.)

Tony Pollard (vs. WAS)

27% started

As far as backup running backs with torn plantar fascia go, Pollard is undoubtedly best in class. Of course, he might also just be the best backup RB in the league, averaging 5.7 YPC and 7.3 YPT en route to 948 total yards over 13 games. That includes 15 touches for 87 yards last week against the Giants, after missing the previous game with the aforementioned foot injury. Assuming no setbacks during the week, this could be another easy win where Pollard picks up some extra work, though Ezekiel Elliott's dominance of the goal-line carries figures to remain a source of frustration for TP's managers.

Honorable Mentions: Cordarrelle Patterson & Mike Davis, ATL vs. DET; James Robinson, JAX at NYJ; Jordan Howard, PHI vs. NYG; Jamaal Williams, DET at ATL

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman (vs. ARZ)

52% started

Pittman had a stretch of mediocre games, followed by a bye week and then an early ejection from a brutal matchup against the Patriots. All in all, it's been nearly two months since he put up a big stat line, even though the Colts are playing well and Pittman remains miles ahead of their other receivers in terms of volume. He won't have the benefit of facing a soft defense this week, but it should be a good matchup for volume in a likely close game, and the Cardinals haven't been nearly as good in the second half of the season. Pittman should get back to at least a handful of catches this week.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (at ATL)

30% started

St. Brown's promotion from slot specialist to every-down player preceded his recent outburst, and while the extra snaps/routes have obviously been a big help, he still gets more than half his playing time in the slot, which means he should mostly avoid A.J. Terrell, who is heads and shoulders above the other Atlanta corners. Between the matchup, his recent form and playing in a dome, there's a lot working in favor of St. Brown continuing his hot streak. On the other hand, we'll still need to drop him down quite a bit if Jared Goff (reserve/COVID-19) doesn't end up playing. (Goff is vaccinated and was placed on the list Monday, so he does have a real chance to return by Sunday.)

Honorable Mentions: Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins & Tyler Boyd, CIN vs. BAL; Russell Gage, ATL vs. DET; Mike Williams, LAC at HOU; Van Jefferson & Odell Beckham, LAR at MIN; Josh Reynolds, DET at ATL

Tight Ends

Jared Cook (at HOU)

55% started

Cook didn't really pick up extra playing last week with No. 2 TE Donald Parham exiting early due to a concussion, but the veteran did match a season high with seven targets, and there's now some opportunity to boost the snap/route share with No. 3 WR Jalen Guyton and No. 5 WR Andre Roberts both on the reserve/COVID-19 list. It comes at the perfect time, with Houston allowing the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends on the 10th fewest targets (8.2 YPT, 27th).

Honorable Mentions: Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. NYG; Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. DET; C.J. Uzomah, CIN vs. BAL

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Quarterbacks

Tom Brady (at CAR)

86% started

The problem isn't Brady's performance last week; it's that he lost three of his top five playmakers during the game. And while Antonio Brown's return helps soften the blow, it's unclear if A.B. will be at his best (or ready for a full workload) after missing more than two months between an ankle injury and a suspension. Brady should still be started over the QB2 types, of course, but this is the time to bench him if you've got someone like Matthew Stafford or Jalen Hurts on the bench. Note that Carolina has allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to QBs this season, including just two 20-point performances over the past eight games.

Honorable Mentions: Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at NO; Cam Newton, CAR vs. TB; Taylor Heinicke, WAS at DAL

Running Backs

James Conner (vs. IND)

77% started

Game script worked against him last week with the Cards surprisingly playing from behind, and while the upcoming game figures to be more competitive, Conner now has a slew of other issues working against him, including a heel injury that kept him out of practice Wednesday. You might remember he missed practice with an ankle injury last week, while Chase Edmonds came back from his own ankle injury and played nearly as many snaps as Conner (44% to 39%) in the loss to Detroit. This week, Conner will have to contend not only with his backfield mate but also an Indianapolis defense that ranks fourth in fantasy points allowed to RBs and third in run-defense DVOA.

Devonta Freeman (at BAL)

51% started

Latavius Murray returning to a sizable role last week is probably the bigger concern, but it's also suboptimal for Freeman to be on the road against a good defense, especially with the Ravens dealing with so many issues between Lamar Jackson's ankle and a COVID outbreak on the defensive side. Murray saw seven carries and three targets on 41 percent of snaps in the loss to Green Bay on Sunday, while Freeman got six carries and only one target on 56 percent. Freeman should still be started over his teammate, but he's more RB3 than RB2 with the workload in question again.

Honorable Mentions: Antonio Gibson (toe) or Jaret Patterson, WAS at DAL; Myles Gaskin & Duke Johnson, MIA at NO; Chuba Hubbard, CAR vs. TEN; Dontrell Hilliard, TEN vs. SF

Wide Receivers

Chase Claypool (at KC)

47% started

If your season reminds me of a Chingy song, it better be Holidae In. Unfortunately, that's not the case, because every time I try to leave Chase Claypool keeps pulling me back. Now, I'm finally standing up and saying, "Chase, I don't need you in my life."

After all, he hasn't scored a TD since Week 5, hasn't played even two-thirds of snaps since Week 12 and didn't catch a single pass in Week 15. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have played excellent defense in the second half of the season, and they've given up the eighth fewest points to WRs on the year.

Honorable Mentions: Terry McLaurin, WAS at DAL; Christian Kirk, ARZ vs. IND; Darnell Mooney, CHI at SEA

Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki (at NO)

50% started

It's hard to bench a tight end who has 19 targets over his past two games, but it hasn't led to much production (7-46-0, 5-43-0) as Gesicki continues to struggle in the second half of the season. He has five straight games with 50 yards or less, and now will go up against a defense that's allowed the ninth fewest points to tight ends while ranking sixth in DVOA against the pass. There's also some risk of a modest dip in playing time, as the Dolphins have been more willing to use three-wide formations instead of two-TE looks when both Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker are available (which should be the case this week with Waddle off the COVID list and Parker ducking the injury report).