Exploiting the Matchups: The Return of Super Cam

Since I began playing fantasy football, there has not been a worse football season for my rooting interests. My birthday is this weekend and my favorite teams have never collectively had fewer wins at this point of a season. Notre Dame football is enduring a lost season amidst what has been at times mindboggling coaching moves and dreadful on-field execution. The Packers, from its players to its coaches to its front office, seem to be a franchise that's unraveling and wasting what is left of the prime of a generational talent. And my beloved Spiderpigs have yet to hit on all cylinders, while suffering some of the worst luck since the team's inception in 2008. All three have precisely four wins. FOUR.

Sometimes it's just not your year. That can definitely be said for my Irish. They lost a ton of talent to the league -- I see you C.J. Prosise and your 153 yards on New England. Their head coach presumably succumbed to some form of brain wash or hypnosis or that scene at the end of Beetlejuice with the shrinking head and was tricked into playing two quarterbacks despite possessing one that will be starting on Sundays next year and one that pro teams wouldn't let hold on an extra point. From there things snowballed a bit.

In Green Bay's case, they simply don't have the depth anymore to overcome massive injury numbers. That's on the front office. And their coaches are not doing much to help them overcome it. Consequently, the players have been put in tough positions and pressing a bit, trying to be perfect when sometimes they just need to stop thinking and play fast. But theirs is not a lost season yet. Aaron Rodgers has a healthy and deep group of wideouts. Reinforcements could be arriving just in time to save a decimated backfield. The defense is a lost cause, but hey, somebody's gotta win a shootout. So why not the Pack? Rodgers will duel with Kirk Cousins in primetime on my birthday and there's only one thing on my wish list this year (the many fantasy points the game will provide will be a nice bonus).

Which leads me to my Pigs. My favorite league. My favorite fantasy team. Headlined (surprise, surprise) by my favorite quarterback. If he can just throw three scores to Davante Adams already, all will be right with the world. Allen Robinson and Lamar Miller doing what they were supposed to this year wouldn't hurt either, of course. Like my Cheeseheads, my Pigs can still make a playoff push if the cards fall just a teensy bit better.

But of course no one cares about my woes (except fellow Irish and Packer fans I suppose). Hopefully the players discussed below can help other weary fantasy owners stack the deck and make a playoff push of their own. With a ton of talent on bye between Atlanta, San Diego and Denver (sorry, Jets fans, you're in a worse boat than I am), finding the right value plays can make or break a season. The upgrades section this week is here to alleviate those byes, but more than any other week, I wouldn't recommend replacing many of the downgraded talent with these options. Matchups never lose their importance, but your best players are such for a reason. Start them confidently unless the matchup is an extreme detriment.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are guys you wouldn't roll out every week while downgrades are generally lineup mainstays but for whom you may want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE:

Quarterback

Cam Newton, CAR vs. NO

A shell of his MVP self, Newton has thrown just five touchdowns in his last six games and has only two outings this year with multiple scores through the air. One of those happens to be against this porous Saints defense, which also happened to mark the last time he reached 300 yards passing. With his Panthers backed up against a wall, Newton will take full advantage of a soft matchup and likely shootout with Drew Brees to post a fantasy performance reminiscent of his monstrous 2015 campaign.

Blake Bortles, JAC at DET

The king of garbage time is back. Bortles has certainly had his struggles this season, but fantasy owners who drafted him early should note his recent improvements. In the last three games Bortles has at least 250 yards and two touchdowns in each, with only two interceptions over that span and nearly 90 yards rushing as a bonus. Detroit is a quality offense, coming off a bye week and playing at home. The Lions almost surely will play with a lead in the second half, and against a defense sporting a league-worst 20:4 TD-to-INT ratio, Bortles will be on the job picking up that sweet, sweet fantasy trash.

Tyrod Taylor, BUF at CIN

Taylor is coming off his bye week and arguably the best game of his career. He doesn't have Sammy Watkins back yet, but this pure playmaker has still been quietly productive lately with a rushing touchdown in three straight and multiple scores in four of his last five. Now he gets to toy with a Bengals defense that's given up multiple touchdowns to every non-Browns or Dolphins quarterback it's faced this year. And that list includes Ryan Fitzpatrick, FYI.

Colin Kaepernick, SF vs. NE

Two weeks ago Kaepernick threw for 398 yards in a shootout. Last week he topped 200 in the air, 50 on the ground and scored once each way in a slugfest. He's getting better in Chip Kelly's offense and should keep things rolling against a Patriots defense that just traded Jamie Collins, a.k.a. the exact type of defender capable of derailing Kaepernick's athletic advantage.

Running Back

Lamar Miller, HOU at OAK (in Mexico City)

Sure, you were most likely playing Miller anyway. After all, he's getting the football and is a proven talent. But this week, for a change, you don't have to hold your nose when you set that lineup. Despite one of the heaviest workloads in the league at running back, Miller has just two 100-yard rushing games and three touchdowns in nine games. The Raiders can fix those issues, however. Oakland allows 4.7 yards per carry to running backs (only the epically bad 49ers are more generous) and has given up one touchdown per game to the position.

Rob Kelley, WAS vs. GB

Don't be scared off by the Green Bay's ranking against the run. Despite giving up 123 yards on the ground to DeMarco Murray, the Packers are still the fourth-best run defense, allowing only 85.3 yards per game. They've softened, however, during their three-game losing skid and have actually allowed No. 1 tailbacks to produce two touchdowns in four of their last five games. Kelley has received 21 and 22 carries in his two starts and run for at least 87 in each. With him well fed, and a Packers secondary that will allow a prolific passing team like Washington plenty of scoring opportunities, Kelley is set up nicely for a big game.

C.J. Prosise, SEA vs. PHI

In two of the last three games, Prosise has topped 100 scrimmage yards, with 259 combined in those two outings. His 24 touches versus New England signified the passing of the baton from Christine Michael to the dynamic rookie, and portended the veteran's release this week. Sure, Thomas Rawls looks poised to return and the Eagles possess one of the better front sevens in football, but this ex-wide receiver is a matchup nightmare the way Seattle moves him around the formation. Until Rawls is a few games into his return, Prosise should still dominate touches and create chunk yardage in the passing game. Ignore the matchup; trust in the Pete Carroll vision.

James Starks, GB at WAS

The Packers need a ground game. They so very, very desperately need a ground game. Green Bay is the only team in the league that has yet to score a rushing touchdown by a running back. Eddie Lacy has missed four games and yet he still leads the team in rushing by more than 100 yards, followed next by Aaron Rodgers and wide receiver Ty Montgomery. Fortunately, the Redskins will help their cause. Washington has allowed 4.6 YPC to running backs and given up the fourth-most rushing yards. Starks, who showed some bounce in his step last week when he averaged 4.7 YPC and scored as a receiver, will get the Packers backfield on track this Sunday as he defends his starting job from the newly acquired Christine Michael.

Wide Receiver

Allen Robinson, JAC at DET

For all the frustration Robinson caused owners over the Jaguars' first six games, he's finally paying off for those who were patient. In his last three, the 2015 Pro Bowler has at least 12 targets and 70 yards in each. Fresh off his first 100-yard effort of the season, the best player in a Jacksonville uniform figures to stay hot facing a Lions defense that has been dreadful defending the pass.

Tyreek Hill, KC vs. TB

In his last four games, Hill has 299 yards from scrimmage (63 rushing) and two TDs. In the last two games that Alex Smith played in, he topped 100 scrimmage yards in each. Jeremy Maclin missed last week with a groin injury and has been held to under 50 yards in the last three games he did finish. Hill may not have taken over as the clear No. 1 wideout in KC, but he's the team's best playmaker and with a Bucs defense that's allowed the second-most fantasy points to receivers, there will be plays to be made this week.

Sterling Shepard, NYG vs. CHI

Victor Cruz is hurt and the Bears have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers in the league. And guess what, the Giants can't run the ball. Despite rumbling for 122 yards last week they're still 31st in rushing offense. Shepard caught the game-winner versus Cincinnati and has found paydirt in two straight. Chicago will help him make it three.

Eli Rogers, PIT at CLE

No defense has allowed more touchdowns to wide receivers than the 15 the Browns have given up, including three to an unspectacular Baltimore group of wideouts just last week. Rogers, who has hit 100 yards or found the end zone in the last two games, has emerged as the No. 2 wide receiver to Antonio Brown in a banged up group of targets for Ben Roethlisberger. Translation: expect the slippery slot receiver to stay hot in a likely dissection of Cleveland.

Pierre Garcon, WAS vs. GB

Very quietly, Garcon has caught exactly six passes in three of his last four contests for no less than 67 yards. He hasn't found the end zone, but that consistency gives him a safe weekly floor. The Packers horrendous secondary -- one that let Rishard Matthews, Kendall Wright and Tajae Sharpe all score last week -- will help Garcon reach his ceiling in this primetime meeting.

Tight End

Julius Thomas, JAC at DET

Thomas has been great in the red zone in recent weeks with a short score in three of the last four games. The yards have not come, however, as he's failed to produce better than 28 yards since Week 2. That should change though with the Lions on tap. Thomas is coming off a 10-target outing and now gets to face a Detroit D that's been highly generous to tight ends, including a league-high nine scores allowed to the position.

Ladarius Green, PIT at CLE

Sure, it's a risk to start a tight end in just his second game of the season playing with a quarterback who, until three weeks ago, he couldn't even practice with. But there are always exceptions to be made, and this is one. Green is a freak athlete at tight end (4.5-speed) and snagged three passes for 30 yards in his Steelers debut. With the receiving corps banged up he has the potential to triple that yardage against a Browns defense that has given up the most catches, yards and receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

DOWNGRADE:

Quarterback

Carson Palmer, AZ at MIN

Palmer threw just one touchdown to two interceptions against the lowly 49ers defense in his own house. How do you think he's going to fare visiting a Minnesota defense that's very much got it's back against the wall after losing four straight? Yeah, I think so too.

Jameis Winston, TB at KC

Winston has thrown for multiple scores in four straight games, but that train stops in Arrowhead. With the sticky coverage of Marcus Peters, sideline-to-sideline range of Eric Berry and ferocious edge rushing of Dee Ford (8.5 sacks in the last five games), Winston will see some of the tightest throwing windows he's dealt with all season with little time to get the ball out. Only Drew Brees has really torched the Chiefs this year, and well, he's Drew Brees. Don't expect déjà vu of Winston's Week 2 implosion at Arizona, but don't expect his recent hot play either.

Matthew Stafford, DET vs. JAC

The Jaguars have excellent athletes in their back seven, and with that coverage speed they've been deceptively stingy against the pass. Their 2-7 record would make one believe they struggle in all facets defensively, but Jacksonville has limited six of the last seven quarterbacks they've faced to 6.2 yards per attempt or worse, and that includes the likes of Andrew Luck and Derek Carr. Moreover, in those seven games they've only allowed seven passing scores. Stafford may have plenty of weapons, home field advantage and the benefit of a bye week of rest, but that may not be enough for a passer who hasn't topped 300 yards since September or thrown for multiple touchdowns during regulation in over a month (he got a second score in OT to beat the Vikings).

Running Back

David Johnson, AZ at MIN

Since no one else is going to knock Johnson, arguably the No. 1 player in all of fantasy, I will. Fact is, something is not right with the Arizona offense as a whole and it's finally impacting Johnson's play. Sure, he has at least 100 scrimmage yards in every game. And yes, barring injury he's getting the ball a ton (21.5 touches per game average). But if you were not convinced of the problems with this offense before last week, perhaps scoring only 23 points with Johnson averaging 2.9 YPC and tallying 101 total yards on 24 touches against THE FORTYNINERS sealed it for you. He salvaged the day -- by his standards -- with two touchdowns, but he won't always do that. In his last three contests, Johnson has averaged a lowly 3.1 YPC on 62 attempts. A combination of an inconsistent passing game and poor offensive line play are essentially relegating him to Todd Gurley with better receiving numbers. Now he faces a Vikings defense that's allowed just four TDs to RBs this year.

Mark Ingram, NO at CAR

Sure, Ingram has rushed for 208 yards on 16 carries the last two weeks, and looked significantly better than Tim Hightower versus a tough Denver defense. But his season average of 4.8 YPC is buoyed greatly by the blasting he put on the 49ers. He's still in a timeshare and is on the road in a short week. Oh, and it doesn't help that the Panthers allow the second-fewest yards per carry at 3.4 per tote.

Carlos Hyde, SF vs. NE

The 49ers hung in with the Cardinals to the bitter end last week, and that afforded them the game flow scenarios to run the ball. Of course, the Arizona defense being what it is, they didn't do so effectively with their tailbacks. Hyde, in particular, was dreadful with 13 carries for 14 yards. After missing two games with a shoulder injury rust could have been a factor, but regardless, the powerful runner who began the year with six touchdowns through his first five contests never showed up. This week a Patriots offense that is going to obliterate a hapless San Francisco defense won't even give Hyde the chance to improve with a game flow that will take SF to the air early and often.

Todd Gurley, LA vs. MIA

Jared Goff will solve none of the problems for a Rams offense that Case Keenum couldn't. In all likelihood, he'll even create more as a rookie who struggles to read defenses. Gurley averaged 3.1 YPC with Keenum under center and topped 60 yards rushing just twice. Oh, and no defense has allowed fewer than the three touchdowns the Dolphins have given up to running backs. That's a problem too.

Wide Receiver

Jordan Matthews, PHI at SEA

Matthews has at least 73 yards or a touchdown in three straight games. Going to Seattle will put an end to that. The only time the Eagles faced a defense on par with the Seahawks (in Week 7 at home versus Minnesota), Matthews logged a pitiful 10 yards on three catches. To top it off, he's dealing with back pain stemming from a huge hit he took versus Atlanta.

Stefon Diggs, MIN vs. AZ

Diggs has at least 13 targets in three straight games and has logged a whopping 34 catches over that span, tallying 320 yards and a score. His best effort came last week versus Josh Norman and the Redskins when he ripped them for 13 grabs and 164 yards. Still, Patrick Peterson has allowed no more than six catches or 70 yards to each of Brandon Marshall, Doug Baldwin and Kelvin Benjamin in three of their last four games, so despite his recent explosion, expectations should be tempered for Diggs in this tough one-on-one matchup.

Marvin Jones, DET vs. JAC

Hoping Jones' recent slump was just the product of poor matchups? That the bye week would get him back on track? Stop. Jalen Ramsey has shut down every No. 1 wideout he's faced. So unless the Jaguars decide his efforts are better spent limiting the abundant playmaking skills of Golden Tate, you can count on Jones' struggles to continue.

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph, MIN vs. AZ

Rudolph is a red-zone guy. At 6-foot-6, 265, that's his biggest asset to fantasy owners (see his 1-1-1 statline from two weeks ago). But as tight ends go, he's been one of the most consistent this year. He's scored in five games and produced at least 55 yards or hit paydirt in all but two contests. He can't be started this week, however. The Cardinals have allowed 246 yards to tight ends this year. And ZERO scores. No defense has been stingier to the position, and it's not like they've played total nobodies, either. Within the last month they held Jimmy Graham and Greg Olsen to a combined 64 yards.

Zach Ertz, PHI at SEA

After tallying 14 catches for 152 yards in his last two games, it's safe to say that Ertz is someone who can be counted on the way many expected in preseason. This one week, however, is not when that theory should be put into practice. When not playing the Patriots, the Seahawks have held all other tight ends they've faced to 294 yards and one touchdown. Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett just hammered them for 158 yards, don't forget: Ertz is not at their level, and Carson Wentz is surely no Tom Brady.