Exploiting the Matchups: Super Bowl LVIII Edtion

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs - 6:30 ET

Betting Odds 📈

Over/Under: 47.5  / Line: 49ers -2

The line has been hovering around these same numbers since end of the conference championship games. I've seen a bunch of stuff about money coming on on the Chiefs ML, but that's likely from casual gamblers, not sharks. I like the Chiefs if it's a close game, while I consider the 49ers more likely to win in a blowout (for reasons discussed in the last version of this article).

I think others have caught on to the same idea, though perhaps for different reasons, e.g. perceived refereeing favoritism for the Chiefs at the end of close games. I don't really buy that, but I do think the team with the better QB and better kicker has an advantage there. In terms of the over/under and point spread... the numbers look about right to me. I won't be betting on the Super Bowl; my fantasy/gambling focus has already shifted to 2024 best ball drafts instead.

Implied Totals: 49ers - 24.75 / Chiefs - 22.75

This game features one team with a superstar-laden, high-powered offense facing another with a dominant defense and a QB who did a nice job managing games to keep his team alive. It's a rematch of the Super Bowl from four seasons ago, only this time the script* has flipped, with San Francisco fielding the better offense and Kansas City the superior defense. The Chiefs finished the regular season 15th in points scored and second in points allowed, while the 49ers were third in both categories. 

A closer look unsurprisingly shows that there weren't actually 14 offenses better than Kansas City's, with the Chiefs ranking 10th in yards per play (5.5), eighth in yards per drive (33.3) and 10th in points per drive (2.01). They were mediocre on fourth downs and in the red zone, but that's happened a couple times before in the Mahomes era and never previously stopped them from having an elite offense.

The big difference in 2024 was a lack of big pass plays, with Mahomes recording career lows for yards per completion (10.4) and average target depth (6.5). The latter number actually has dropped with each passing season, while the former mostly held steady north of 12.0 (apart from dipping to 11.1 in 2021). Nothing has changed there in the playoffs, for what it's worth, with Mahomes averaging just 10.3 yards per completion (but completing 68.0 percent of throws while taking just two sacks and not turning the ball over even once).

Out of his six postseasons, the past two have featured Mahomes' lowest marks for yards per attempt and yards per completion... and yet the Chiefs have gone 6-0. Basically, he can kill defenses by avoiding mistakes nearly as well as he once killed defenses by connecting with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce for big plays. More Rodgers, less Favre, if you will.

I'll also mention that San Francisco's defense hasn't been quite as good as the No. 3 ranking for points allowed suggests. Giving up 52 points through two playoff games is a strong hint, of course, but there were also plenty of signs beforehand. The Niners finished the regular season ranked first in opponent's average field position (26.2) but only 14th in yards allowed per drive (29.6) and ninth in points allowed per drive (1.71).

The Chiefs defense, meanwhile, finished sixth in yards per drive (27.4) and third in points (1.50), despite allowing 4.5 YPC and the 15th most rushing yards. An excellent pass defense led the way, ranking fourth in yards allowed and third in net yards per attempt (4.9). 

It's safe to assume the Niners won't make the same mistake the Ravens made and allow the KC run defense to go untested. San Francisco's offense ranked near the top of the league in a slew of statistics for both pass and run efficiency, including first in NY/A (8.4) and fourth in YPC (4.8). Many would even argue that the Niners should've passed more and run less, though the counter-argument is a legitimate one — that their spectacular efficiency throwing the ball partially stems from the immense amount of effort defenses have to put into stopping a high-volume, high-efficiency run game.

*not that script

Weather / Field Conditions 🏟⛅

The Super Bowl will be played in the Raiders' dome, with a grass surface. The same was true last year in Arizona, and there ended up being some issues with players slipping, which led to a bunch of Eagles switching cleats at halftime. George Toma, a.k.a. the "Sodfather", called it the "worst game-field I've ever seen before an NFL groundskeeper stepped on [it]."

Toma, who has been somehow involved with maintaining the field for every single Super Bowl, said that the grounds crew failed to heed his warning and wheeled the grass inside shortly after it was watered Wednesday (rather than leaving the grass out in the sun for the rest of the day to dry). The 95-year-old will miss a Super Bowl for the first time this year, but he said he's confident the lesson has been learned and this year's field will be the "best ever".

Unfortunately, Toma also said the practice fields were a disaster last year... and that's now become a main storyline for Super Bowl LVIII thanks to issues with the 49ers' setup at UNLV. Coach Kyle Shanahan did say the field improves with each passing day, but the 49ers (and the NFLPA) nonetheless seem displeased. Do I think this matters for Sunday? Not at all, unless the Niners suffer an injury in practice because of the field (which doesn't seem to have happened so far).

Injuries 🤕

49ers Injuries

Questionable - DT Kalia Davis (ankle)

TE George Kittle (toe), DT Arik Armstead (knee/foot), LB Oren Burks (shoulder) and Ambry Thomas (ankle) all have missed some practice time leading up to the Super Bowl, but San Francisco's injury report at the end of last week revealed that Davis would've been the only guy with a game designation if the team had played Feb. 4.

Davis is a third-string DT who played 54 defensive snaps in three games this year, briefly helping the 49ers when they dealt with other injuries at the position in early-to-mid December. His presence (or lack thereof) shouldn't really matter now that their main DTs are healthy.

San Francisco is quite healthy for a team that has played 19 games, with S Talanoa Hufanga (knee) and DE Clelin Ferrell (knee) being the only starters missing. Hufanga's ACL tear in November was a huge loss, while Ferrell they can probably live without, even if Chase Young's inconsistent effort hasn't exactly won fans over. Ferrell had 3.5 sacks and 13 QB hits as a 17-game starter in the regular season, before a Week 18 knee injury sent him to injured reserve in January. 

Chiefs Injuries

Questionable - RB Jerick McKinnon (sports hernia)

OUT - G Joe Thuney (pectoral) 

The Chiefs have three key guys shut down for the season on injured reserve — S Bryan Cook (ankle), DT Derrick Nnadi (tricep) and DE Charles Omenihu (ACL). While the latter technically wasn't a starter, he recorded eight sacks and 12 QB hits between 14 appearances in the regular season and playoffs before tearing an ACL in the win over Baltimore. Nnadi was less impactful as a 17-game starter, with 29 tackles, one sack and poor marks from PFF.  Cook was the team's biggest loss in-season, starting all 12 games prior to a season-ending ankle injury Week 13.

In terms of the guys that haven't been shut down, Thuney and McKinnon are the only ones with game designations. Andy Reid was pessimistic about both when he spoke to the media Tuesday, but it now seems McKinnon has a shot to return from sports hernia surgery following limited practices Wednesday through Friday.

Thuney, on the other hand, has been ruled out. He's one of the best guards around, but the Chiefs got by just fine without him two weeks ago at Baltimore, subbing in experienced backup Nick Allegretti (who has been with the team since 2019, making 13 starts in the regular season and four in the playoffs).

You might've noticed that I don't list  WR Skyy Moore (knee) above). He was removed from injured reserve Wednesday and has been a full practice participant this week. That doesn't mean he'll play, but everything suggests he's healthy enough to do so. The same goes for WR Kadarius Toney, which means the division of WR snaps behind Rashee Rice will be a matter of strategy rather than health.

Strengths/Weaknesses 💪👎🏻

49ers Greatest Strength: Playmakers on Offense

49ers Greatest Weakness: Average Secondary / Interior O-Line

TE George Kittle would get 130-plus targets per season in a lot of NFL offenses. It even happened once in San Francisco, back in 2018 when he shared the field with Kendrick Bourne, Marquise Goodwin and Matt Breida rather than Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey. The current group is probably the league's best compilation of skill-position talent, and the guy who plays the fifth most snaps (FB Kyle Juszczyk) is also quite good. No. 3 WR Jauan Jennings is the relative weak link, but he doesn't really tend to matter apart from the rare instances when game context forces San Francisco to abandon the run.

Samuel is one of the best YAC wide receivers ever, and probably the most powerful runner we've ever seen at the position. Aiyuk is more your classic wideout, with no obvious elite physical trait but also no weakness. He ran a 4.50 40 at 6-0, 205 pounds, and he's dropped only 18 passes in four seasons while developing into one of the smoothest route-runners in the league. Aiyuk's ability to track balls downfield is what sets him apart, as the Lions found out in rather painful fashion a couple weeks ago. He also seems to accelerate as quick or quicker than any receiver in the league, besides Tyreek Hill. 

Not many guys are capable of making Chiefs CBs L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie look foolish, but Aiyuk and Samuel are two of them, albeit in different ways. And then there's Christian McCaffrey, the 2023 OPOY and arguably the most natural pass catcher of any RB in league history (he's also good at running, as you may have heard of). With LT Trent Williams paving the way for those four, it's not even an insult when people call QB Brock Purdy the sixth-best player in his team's offense. There are a handful of QBs in the Hall of Fame who wouldn't be one of the five best players in this offense, even at the height of their powers (Hi, Eli!).

If you're looking for weaknesses, the 49ers' secondary is merely ordinary without Hufanga patrolling the middle. 33-year-old Tashaun Gipson and third-round rookie Ji'Ayir Brown have held up alright at safety, but they might be the slowest duo in the league at their position (which admittedly matters less when your team has Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw at linebacker).

Charvarius Ward is an excellent cornerback — graded No. 6 by PFF in back-to-back seasons — while running mates Deommodore Lenoir and Ambry Thomas are ordinary. The 49ers rarely shadow with Ward, but there's at least a slim chance it happens Sunday given the minuscule share of targets that's been going to Chiefs WRs not named Rashee Rice.

The 49ers' interior O-line is similarly average, with 2021 second-round pick Aaron Banks and 31-year-old Jon Feliciano flanking 31-year-old center Jake Brendel. Feliciano has by far the best PFF grade of the trio, but I wouldn't put too much stock in that (for a few different reasons, including the small sample and PFF grades not being super reliable). Playing for his fourth NFL team now, Feliciano opened the year as a backup before filling in for Banks and Spencer Burford when they were injured... and eventually replacing a now-healthy Burford as the starting right guard.

The Niners obviously have gotten by just fine using interior linemen that know how to excuse the scheme but aren't physically dominant; the question this week is whether they can neutralize Chiefs DL Chris Jones, who is probably the second- or third-best interior defensive lineman in the league (behind Aaron Donald). 

The obvious answer is to double-team Jones and leave the OTs one-on-one with Kansas City's mediocre edge defenders, but that's easier said than done against a defense with an excellent coordinator and the seventh-highest blitz rate* (32.9 percent) in the league. Jones inevitably will get some one-on-one opportunities, and a game-wrecking performance for him is arguably KC's best hope of throwing Brock Purdy off rhythm and keeping the ball away from Samuel/Aiyuk/Kittle.

*Per PFF, Purdy was blitzed at the third-highest rate in the league this year — 38.6 percent of dropbacks — and led the league in YPA (10.2), passing yards (1,762) and TD passes (15) against the blitz. Layman's logic demands blitzing him a lot, but that's mostly what teams tried and it didn't go so well. The Ravens notably shut Purdy down while blitzing on just one-fourth of his dropbacks, but I'm not sure there's really a takeaway there either, other than Baltimore having an awesome defense. Two of the interceptions in that game came on blitzes, and two came against four-man rushes. And Purdy still averaged 8.0 YPA...

Chiefs Greatest Strength: Mahomes/Reid/Kelce

Chiefs Greatest Weakness: Safeties / Edge Defenders

The Chiefs have three Hall of Famers that have now spent seven years working in the same kitchen...or six seasons if you don't count the one Patrick Mahomes spent as a chef's apprentice before Alex Smith was traded to a Carl's Jr.. The famous trio hiccupped this year with Kelce perhaps losing a half-step and the offense lacking a downfield threat in Year 2 without Tyreek Hill.

But they're here again all the same, playing in the Super Bowl for a fourth time in six years since Mahomes replaced Smith. Not only that; Kelce's performance in the playoffs suggests he might still be the same guy, after all, and the emergence of rookie WR Rashee Rice has given Mahomes a legitimate second target.  

The Chiefs defense seemingly has more holes from a personnel standpoint — which makes sense if you look at the team's spending breakdown — but opponents have nonetheless struggled to move the ball and put up points. We did see the Ravens produce three long gains on passes in the AFC Championship game, though in each case the main trailing in coverage was one of KC's standouts (Sneed, McDuffie, LB Nick Bolton) rather than the seemingly vulnerable safeties.

Those safeties, Justin Reid and Mike Edwards, are kind of like San Francisco's duo in that you might not notice them one way or another throughout an entire game. Reid has 4.4 speed, while Edwards (4.52) is more akin to the 49ers safeties.

Edge rushers George Karlaftis and Michael Danna are the other underwhelming part of Kansas City's stellar roster, though it might be unfair to call them a weakness after they combined for 17 sacks this year. Karlaftis, in particular, had ancillary pass-rush numbers somewhat less impressive than his sack total (10.5), recording 17 QB hits and ranking 25th among edge defenders in PFF's pressure percentage.

Those numbers aren't bad, of course, and it's probably fair to say that your defense is in good hands if guys like Danna, Reid and Edwards are the weak links. This Chiefs defense is vastly superior to the Green Bay and Detroit units that the Niners dispatched of in the NFC playoffs.

What We Know 🤓

1. The Niners won't abandon their run game like the Ravens did.
2. Kansas City will try to feed TE Travis Kelce, RB Isiah Pacheco and WR Rashee Rice.

What We Don't Know 🤔

1. If the Chiefs will go pass-happy or stick with a balanced offense
2. If DL Chris Jones can make Brock Purdy uncomfortable
3. Which of Samuel, Aiyuk, Kittle and McCaffrey will be left out of the passing game
4. How KC's WR snaps will be divided between Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, Richie James, Kadarius Toney, Mecole Hardman and Skyy Moore

Divisional Round Advanced Box Scores 📊

San Francisco 49ers (vs. DET)

Kansas City Chiefs (at BAL)

Best Values for DraftKings Showdowns 🎲

These are the best plays in terms of point-per-$ projection. How much that really matters in DK Showdowns with thousands of lineups... I'm not sure. I think Kittle will be in a huge number of lineups but not among the two or three most popular captain picks, and Pacheco is probably most likely to be underowned relative to the value.

MVS makes a lot of sense with Mahomes CPTN lineups, as it'll be hard for the QB to score a ton of points with the approach we've seen of late. If you do make a lineup that requires a lot of volume for Kansas City, e.g. using Mahomes/Pacheco/Kelce, then it makes sense to roster Aiyuk on the other side and hope San Francisco has some huge plays that help the Chiefs have more overall play volume. 

The contrarian approach there would be to stack volume on the 49ers side and hope for a long TD or two on Kansas City's side, e.g., using Pacheco or MVS on the other side of a Purdy/Samuel/Kittle/McCaffrey lineup. I'll be in Mexico and can't actually enter any contests, FWIW. Good luck!

 RB Isiah Pacheco ($8,000)

 WR Rashee Rice ($7,600)

 TE George Kittle ($6,400) - Jerry's CPTN Pick

 Chiefs D/ST ($3,400)

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,000)