DraftKings NFL: Week 17 Picks

Oh, Week 17. Most fantasy leagues complete their seasons in Week 16 because of the unpredictable nature of the final week of the NFL season. But in DFS, we get one more week of action and can just avoid the star players on the teams who are not playing for anything in week 17. Teams like the Steelers, Giants or Cowboys who have locked up playoff berths and cannot move up or down in seeding are very likely to shut their star players down early in games (or not play them at all) and I usually just fade those teams altogether unless there is a high-upside backup who could fall into a lot of work if a starter is deemed inactive on Sunday morning. Guessing on exactly how long each coach will play his starters in each situation is too much of a headache to mess with, especially in such a large slate.

Without a Thursday or Monday night game, this is the only week all season where the whole schedule of 16 NFL games is eligible on the main DraftKings slate. In terms of projected totals, the Falcons hosting the Saints sticks out in a major way with a total of 56.5 points, a full touchdown higher than the next highest game, the Packers at Lions. Make sure to check on the Sunday morning inactives and read quotes form coaches this week to get a feel on playing time. There will also be instances this week where teams out of the playoffs will shut down a banged up veteran a week early. As always, with the late season slates, check those weather reports Sunday morning to see if there are any extreme situations. Good luck to everyone on the last week of the season, it has gone by rapidly and I am certainly going to miss it!

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, DET vs. GB ($6,000) – Stafford is a nice combination of game situation and price this week as the Lions are at home in a game that will determine the winner of the NFC North and could also be a win-or-go-home game based on what the Redskins do earlier in the day. The Packers will likely score plenty of points and Stafford is going to have to throw to keep the Lions in the game. In the first matchup against the Packers in Week 3, Stafford posted a huge game with 385 yards passing and three scores. Stafford can be frustrating, but in a must-win home game where he is priced 13th-highest among quarterbacks, I love the value this week.

Other strong options: Aaron Rodgers, GB at DET ($7,700); Drew Brees, NO at ATL ($7,600); Matt Ryan, ATL vs. NO ($7,400)

Cheapie Stab:

There is no one under Stafford that I am strongly considering since Stafford is priced fairly low as it is. If I had to grab somewhere from the cheaper range, it would either be Sam Bradford at home against the Bears at $5,200 or Tom Savage at the Titans for $5,400.

Running Back

David Johnson is insanely dominant right now. NFFC founder Greg Ambrosius tweeted Wednesday morning that David Johnson has an incredible 100 more points in PPR scoring than the leading running back (Devonta Freeman) last year, just an insane stat. I am going to look at a few other running backs this week since writing up matchup-proof David Johnson is boring.

Jordan Howard, CHI at MIN ($6,800) – I am going back to the well on Howard getting a game indoors against a Vikings defense that is a shell of what it was early in the season. Howard has been amazingly consistent, rushing for at least 77 yards in all of his last eight games and topping 100 in four of those games. He continues to be very efficient with his carries as he is tied for second among starting running backs with 5.1 yards per carry. Jordan thrashed Minnesota to the tune of 153 yards and a score while also catching four balls during their first meeting this season. His price has stayed reasonable and I love his chance to be a great value in the final game of his rookie season.

Mark Ingram, NO at ATL ($5,600) – After a couple of weeks where Ingram's snap counts suffered, he has been heavily involved the last two weeks and out-snapped Tim Hightower 48-15 in Week 16 against the Buccaneers. Ingram took advantage of his work last week to post 90 yards rushing and two scores. While his price jumped up from the $4,400 it was in Week 16, Ingram is still very affordable at $5,600 and I love getting a piece of this game with its massive 56.5 projected total. Ingram had a nice game against Atlanta in Week 3 with 107 combined yards and a touchdown.

Other strong options: LeSean McCoy, BUF at NYJ ($8,900); Devonta Freeman, ATL vs. NO ($7,000); Frank Gore, IND vs. JAX ($4,700); Ty Montgomery, GB at DET ($5,700); Jerick McKinnon, MIN vs. CHI ($4,000), Isaiah Crowell, CLE at PIT ($4,400), Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL vs. CAR ($4,900).

Cheapie Stab:

Darren Sproles, PHI vs. DAL ($4,000) – Sproles should see a lot of work against the Cowboys with Ryan Mathews (back) being placed on the IR. He will catch a number of balls out of the backfield as well and will likely face a Dallas defense that will be resting starters as the game goes on. Cheap running back is a stacked spot this week as in addition to Sproles, I like Gore, Crowell, Quizz Rodgers and McKinnon all under $5,000. This could be a nice week to play a cheap running back at the flex spot on DraftKings.

Wide Receiver

Jordy Nelson, GB at DET ($8,100) – Nelson has been on fire lately, posting over 100 yards in three of his last four games while also scoring five times in that stretch. Nelson has been extremely involved in the offense lately with double digit targets in four of the last five and six of the last eight. The Packers are in a must-win spot and the game is indoors which quells any weather concerns that could affect the passing game. Nelson thrived in the first matchup against the Lions as he went off for 101 yards and two touchdowns. Nelson is my number one receiver on the board in Week 17.

T.Y. Hilton, IND vs. JAX ($7,600) – Donte Moncrief had an MRI on his shoulder earlier this week and in a game where Indy is not playing for anything, it is hard to imagine Moncrief takes the field Sunday. In the six games where Moncrief has not played, Hilton has seen a massive total of 60 targets. Hilton has been especially active lately with over 100 yards receiving in three of his last four games. The Colts are not playing for anything, but in a home game, they will likely toss it around a good amount, which could lead to a lot of work for Hilton. He is the sixth-highest priced receiver,t is still very workable at $7,600 and I anticipate a very active Sunday for Hilton.

DeSean Jackson, WAS vs. NYG ($5,600) – I really like the game situation, recent form and price when it comes to D-Jax. The Redskins control their own destiny and make the playoffs with a win (assuming the Lions and Packers don't tie) and face a Giants team that is locked into the fifth seed and will rest some starters for at least part of the game. Jackson has been fantastic lately with three consecutive 100-yard performances, but has only seen his price rise from $5,200 to $5,600 on DraftKings in that span. Jackson has 17 targets in the last two weeks and if he can see that volume again in a must win game, I really like his chances to hit a big play or two at a very affordable price against a bunch of second stringers.

Other strong options: Mike Evans, TB vs. CAR ($8,000); DeAndre Hopkins, HOU at TEN ($6,500); Brandin Cooks, NO at ATL (6,900); Adam Thielen, MIN vs. CHI ($5,600); Davante Adams, GB at DET ($5,600); Brandon LaFell, CIN vs. BAL ($4,500), Steve Smith, BAL at CIN ($4,900)

Cheapie stab:

Brandon Marshall, NYJ vs. BUF ($4,600) – Marshall has been brutal the last four weeks, not topping 50 yards or scoring at any point in that stretch. His price has crashed as a result, but he does get Ryan Fitzpatrick back at quarterback this week and that alone makes him worth a flyer at this bargain price. If you are over Marshall, Phillip Dorsett could be a nice option at $3,700, assuming Donte Moncrief (shoulder) does not play.

Tight End

Eric Ebron, DET vs. GB ($3,600) – This could be a cheapie stab at this low price, but I like Ebron enough to write him up as my main tight end. As I detailed in the Stafford comments above, Detroit is indoors at home in a must-win game where they are going to have to score to keep up with the Packers. Ebron saw a massive 12 targets last week, hauling in eight passes for 93 yards. He had a solid game in the first matchup against the Packers with five catches for 69 yards and should be plenty of action on Sunday night at a very low price. He presents a strong way to save money in Week 17 without giving up production.

Other strong options: Travis Kelce, KC vs. SD ($5,000); Martellus Bennett, NE at MIA ($3,900); Jimmy Graham, SEA at SF ($4,500)

Cheapie stab:

Antonio Gates, SD vs. KC ($3,800) – Gates has been a popular point of discussion this week as he needs two touchdowns to pass Tony Gonzalez for the all-time record for touchdowns by a tight end. There is some thought that the Chargers want to get him that record before the franchise could possibly move to Los Angeles in the off-season. Kansas City will need to win this game as they play at the same time as the Raiders so they will be playing hard, but Gates could pay off if the Chargers make a concerted effort to force him the ball, especially in the red zone.

Defense

Arizona, at LA ($3,000) – I was surprised by the Cardinals' price this week as they are only the 12th-highest priced defense. While the Cardinals defense has been a disappointment in both fantasy and real football, a matchup against Jared Goff and the Rams is just what the doctor ordered for the final week of the season. The Rams have surrendered 15 sacks over the last four weeks and the Cardinals D is off a six sack performance against the Seahawks. The Cardinals will likely be popular at this deflated price, but I am willing to take on the high-percentage play as I think they record a good number of sacks and also take advantage of a couple of Goff mistakes for turnovers.

Cheapie Stab:

Oakland, at DEN ($2,800) – The Broncos have indicated they will use both Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch this week and I am never a fan of swapping quarterbacks in and out in an NFL game. I like the Raiders chances for a couple of big plays on defense in a game they have to win to lock down a first week bye.