DraftKings NFL: Week 17 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's slate features 13 games and only two have a total above 45. Consequently, the Bears-Lions and Vikings-Packers matchups will be popular targets for game stacks. Looking at the entire slate, there's cheap value at every position but nothing that really stands out as overwhelming chalk. With many similar options and few elite ones, it's easier to stomach fading some of players who will be relatively popular. Finding leverage in the right spots is the key to winning GPPs. More so than most, this is a week to take some chances as there's less opportunity cost than usual across the board. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. These players, combined with passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• RB Miles Sanders vs. NO ($5,900)

After back-to-back subpar fantasy performances, this is the first time Sanders has been priced less than $6K since Week 4. The Eagles have a favorable matchup at home against the Saints, who've really struggled stopping the run recently. Jalen Hurts is out again, which means he won't be there to vulture the short-yardage rushing TDs. Sanders had 22 touches last week and should see at least 20 again as you'd expect the Eagles to take the onus off Gardner Minshew. If you're not sold on Sanders, consider Travis Etienne ($6,400). He has an ideal matchup against the Texans, but there are questions about the Jaguars motivation to play their starters the full game considering they aren't really playing for anything. 

• WR Garrett Wilson at SEA ($5,500)

The important news for Wilson and the Jets is the return of Mike White, who missed the last two games with fractured ribs. With White at the helm, Wilson had posted back-to-back games of at least 25 fantasy points and saw his salary rise to $6K as a result. Now he's $500 cheaper for a favorable matchup against the struggling Seahawks. I'm pretty confident he'll be the most popular WR in cash games this week. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800) will be the popular option up top. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Jared Goff vs. CHI ($5,600)

RB Saquon Barkley vs. IND ($8,000)

RB James Conner at ATL ($7,200)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson vs. MIA ($6,800)

RB Travis Etienne at HOU ($6,400)

RB Miles Sanders vs. NO ($5,900)

RB Tyler Allgeier vs. ARI ($5,300)

RB D'Andre Swift vs. CHI ($5,300)

RB Brian Robinson vs. CLE ($5,200)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. CHI ($7,800)

WR Garrett Wilson at SEA ($5,500)

WR Allen Lazard vs. MIN ($5,400)

WR Zay Jones at HOU ($5,000)

WR Brandin Cooks vs. JAX ($4,800)

WR Curtis Samuel vs. CLE ($4,400)

WR Elijah Moore at SEA ($3,500)

WR Greg Dortch at ATL ($3,000)

TE Evan Engram at HOU ($4,400)

TE Jelani Woods at NYG ($2,800)

D/ST San Francisco 49ers at LV ($2,900)

D/ST Atlanta Falcons vs. ARI ($2,700)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Chicago Bears (23) at Detroit Lions (29)

BEARS

This is an obvious spot for game stacks as it's the only matchup with a total higher than 50 and will be played indoors at Ford Field where we've seen big scores all season. The teams combined for 61 points when they met in Chicago in Week 10. Justin Fields ($7,900) put up 43 fantasy points in that game as he rushed for 147 yards and two scores. He's 196 yards away from breaking the single-season rushing record by a quarterback. We just saw the Panthers run for a whopping 320 yards against this Lions defense. Chicago's top-three WRs are questionable. The one I'd have interest in is Chase Claypool ($4,500), who caught five of six targets in his last start and seems the most likely of the bunch to hit a ceiling. Cole Kmet ($4,500) is probably a better option to pair with Fields. He's drawing consistent targets and already has two multi-score games this season, one of which came against the Lions. It's hard to have interest in David Montgomery ($6,900) now that his salary has reached as season-high. I might've been able to stomach it, but Khalil Herbert ($4,000) returned last week and saw six carries and three targets. The best argument I can make for Montgomery is that few will roster him and he still has multiple-TD upside in the right game script. 

LIONS

Lions home games have averaged 60.5 points and 131 combined plays this season. The combination of their relatively fast offense and bad defense has been great for fantasy. Only one game at Ford Field has failed to reach 53 points. These two defenses rank bottom of the league in points allowed and yards allowed on a per-play basis. Jared Goff ($5,600) is a different player at home, where he's thrown 20 TDs and just three INTs. The Lions average more than 32 points in those games. He's much too cheap this week and will be a popular option in all formats as a result. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800) has averaged 11 targets per game since the debut of Jameson Williams ($3,400) in Week 13. I'd been slightly worried about St. Brown's target share now that all their WRs are healthy, but not anymore. He's one of the best options on the board this week from a point-per-dollar standpoint. DJ Chark ($4,300) has topped 94 yards in three of his last four. He's caught passes of at least 40 yards in all three of those games, highlighting his ability as a deep threat. I like the idea of pairing Goff with a WR and D'Andre Swift ($5,300). Swift is averaging more than six targets per game in his last five and just saw his most playing time since Week 1. Jamaal Williams ($5,000) would make more sense opposite Fields. Williams still leads the league in rushing TDs despite not scoring in his last three games. He has multiple-TD upside in this spot against a bad Chicago run defense. 

• Favorite Bears Stack: QB Fields + WR St. Brown + TE Kmet +/- RB Swift
• Favorite Lions Stack: QB Goff + WR St. Brown + TE Kmet + RB Swift or WR Chark

Minnesota Vikings (22.25) at Green Bay (25.75)

VIKINGS

Vikings games have averaged the most combined plays in the league this season and rank fourth in total points. The Vikings play fast, pass often and are sixth in no-huddle rate. There isn't a lot to like this week in terms of matchups that look good for game stacks. The 48-point total in this one is the second highest on the slate by three points. Kirk Cousins ($6,400) has scored at least 22 fantasy points in four of his last five games and has 13 TD passes in that span. Justin Jefferson ($9,500) has been on a tear, topping 32 fantasy points in four of his last five. He had his best game of the season against the Packers in Week 1 when he caught nine for 184 yards and two scores. He has a legitimate chance to break the single-season receiving yards record. If you're looking for some leverage, neither Adam Thielen ($5,200) or K.J. Osborn ($4,600) will be popular and both have shown recently that they're capable of paying off those salaries. T.J. Hockenson ($5,400) is coming off a huge effort of 13 catches for 109 yards and two scores. He looks like one of the best TE options on the board this week. Dalvin Cook ($7,000) continues to see his salary drop despite seeing a heavier workload in recent weeks. The Packers run defense has been shaky, especially lately, and I'd expect the Vikings to lean on Cook as much as possible. 

PACKERS

Green Bay has won three straight and must win here to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Vikings defense is a pass funnel as they rank second against the run and 20th in pass coverage. They've allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to QBs this season. Those numbers suggest it's a good spot for Aaron Rodgers ($6,000) and the passing game, especially considering that Aaron Jones ($7,100) is still dealing with multiple lower body injuries. Rodgers has underwhelmed all season but if he's ever going to show up with a big game, it's here. Keep an eye on the status of Christian Watson ($5,900), who's yet to practice after exiting last week's game with a hip injury. If he plays, he's the Packers most dynamic WR, evidenced by his eight TDs since Week 10. If he sits, Allen Lazard ($5,400) and Romeo Doubs ($4,700) would be expected to pick up the slack. All are worthy options regardless of Watson's injury status. They're all cheap and plenty capable of 100-plus yards and a TD. I'll avoid the aforementioned Jones based on his injuries and the tough matchup. AJ Dillon ($5,800), on the other hand, would be a fine option. He has five TDs in his last four games as the Packers continue to feature him in goal-line situations.

• Favorite Stack: QB Rodgers + WR Lazard + WR Watson/WR Doubs + RB Cook or WR Jefferson

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Patrick Mahomes + TE Travis Kelce + WR Courtland Sutton or WR Jerry Jeudy

QB Justin Herbert + WR Keenan Allen + RB Cam Akers or TE Tyler Higbee

QB Kirk Cousins + WR Justin Jefferson + WR Allen Lazard/WR Christian Watson + TE T.J. Hockenson

QB Trevor Lawrence + WR Zay Jones or WR Christian Kirk + WR Brandin Cooks + TE Evan Engram

QB Daniel Jones + WR Isaiah Hodgins or WR Richie James + TE Jelani Woods

QB Gardner Minshew + RB Alvin Kamara + WR DeVonta Smith +/- TE Dallas Goedert

QB Mike White + WR Tyler Lockett + WR Garrett Wilson +/- WR Elijah Moore

QB Teddy Bridgewater + RB Rhamondre Stevenson + WR Tyreek Hill or WR Jaylen Waddle

High-Priced Heroes

• RB Saquon Barkley vs. IND ($8,000)

The Giants have everything to play for and a great matchup at home against the Colts, who really struggled to move the ball last week with Nick Foles in at QB. I expect the Giants to win and have most of the possession, which would bode well for Barkley, who continues too see a ton of volume. He should get 20-plus carries in this spot, assuming the Giants are playing with the lead. If he does, he has the upside for at least 100 yards and multiple touchdowns.  

• WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. CHI ($7,800)

I was a bit worried that St. Brown's target share might take a hit now that all of their WRs are healthy. That hasn't been the case at all as he's averaged 11 the last four weeks. The matchup at home against the Bears looks like the best spot on the slate. St. Brown caught 10 for 119 yards when the two teams met in Week 10. If he finds the endzone, he should put up a big score. 

Honorable Mentions: QB Justin Fields ($7,900); WR Justin Jefferson ($9,500)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range

• RB Christian McCaffrey at LV ($9,000)

McCaffrey is expected to be more popular than I would've thought. I guess it makes sense considering that he's relatively easy to afford based on all the cheap value at the other positions. The 49ers don't have much to play for, though, and McCaffrey would need to hit a ceiling to pay off the $9K price tag. I'm just not convinced that he's going to get enough touches, especially as the 49ers are unlikely to be pushed by Jarrett Stidham and the Raiders. I'd rather spend that money on the likes of Justin Jefferson and Saquon Barkley. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Elijah Moore at SEA ($3,500)

I mentioned that Mike White will return for the Jets, which is great news for their WRs. Moore caught six of 10 targets for 60 yards the last time White started in Week 14. If he sees anywhere near that type of volume against the Seahawks, $3,500 is just way too cheap. Everyone will be on Garrett Wilson this week. Moore makes a ton of sense for $2,000 less.

Honorable Mentions: WR Greg Dortch ($3,000); RB Tyler Allgeier ($5,300); RB Brian Robinson ($5,200)

The Bargain Bin

QB Aaron Rodgers vs. MIN ($6,000)

QB Daniel Jones vs. IND ($5,700)

QB Jared Goff vs. CHI ($5,600)

QB Gardner Minshew vs. NO ($5,500)

QB Mike White at SEA ($5,400)

QB Teddy Bridgewater at NE ($5,000)

RB Leonard Fournette at CAR ($5,600)

RB Tyler Allgeier vs. ARI ($5,300)

RB D'Andre Swift vs. CHI ($5,300)

RB Brian Robinson vs. CLE ($5,200)

RB Zonovan Knight at SEA ($5,100)

WR Drake London vs. ARI ($4,900)

WR Brandin Cooks vs. JAX ($4,800)

WR Romeo Doubs vs. MIN ($4,700)

WR Jahan Dotson vs. CLE ($4,600)

WR Isaiah Hodgins vs. IND ($4,500)

WR Curtis Samuel vs. CLE ($4,400)

WR Richie James vs. IND ($4,300)

WR Rashid Shaheed at PHI ($4,000)

WR Tutu Atwell at LAC ($3,600)

WR Elijah Moore at SEA ($3,500)

WR Greg Dortch at ATL ($3,000)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Christian Watson vs. MIN

Watson appears to be a true game-time decision after sitting out the second half of last week's game with a hip injury. If he's active, I won't hesitate to roster him as this looks like a great spot for Packers WRs and Watson is the best of them. If he's ruled out, Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs would become even better options than they already are. 

• WR Chris Olave at PHI

If Olave is out, Rashid Shaheed ($4,000) would become the de facto No. 1 WR for the Saints. He's a decent option either way, but with the plethora of cheap value at WR, whether I roster Shaheen depends on the status of Olave. 

• DeAndre Hopkins at ATL 

I have no interest in spending up for Hopkins with David Blough slated to start at QB, but if he's out, Greg Dortch ($3,000) becomes an even better option for minimum salary.   

Weather

Nothing to worry about this week. A welcomed change from last week.