DraftKings NFL: Week 14 DFS Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 14 slate includes 10 games and none has a total higher than 50 points or really jump off the page in terms of stacking appeal. 

What does stand out is all the value at running back. Besides an underpriced Alvin Kamara, Isaac Guerendo and Braelon Allen are popping in projections with the news that Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason and Breece Hall are out. Kenneth Walker's status is up in the air as well, which could lead to Zach Charbonnet tossed in the mix. And that's without mentioning others just above them who project well. Wide receiver is rather loaded in the mid-range too. Put it together and there isn't as much of a reason to punt at the other positions. 

Leverage might be easier to find than most weeks as all this value will mean quite a bit of obvious chalk. This article highlights some of the top options for cash games and few of my favorite picks for tournaments. Good luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EST on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Alvin Kamara at NYG ($8,000)

The Saints were already shorthanded and now they'll be without Taysom Hill (knee) for Sunday's prime matchup against the Giants. Kamara had 27 touches for 118 yards against the Rams last week and looks set for that type of volume again. He's considerably underpriced for that role and  likely will be the most popular RB as a result. That makes him essentially a lock for cash games and a strong option for tournaments too. 

• WR Jauan Jennings vs. CHI ($5,200)

Forget about San Francisco's last two games. One was played in a blizzard and the other with Brandon Allen under center. Prior to that, Jennings had back-to-back 11 target games and seemed to have taken ownership of the No. 1 WR role in the absence of Brandon Aiyuk. Either way, he's underpriced so long as the 49ers are without McCaffrey and Aiyuk. I think Jennings will come in as the most popular WR, and that alone makes him a virtual lock for cash games considering the bargain price tag. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Baker Mayfield vs. LV ($6,400)

QB Sam Darnold vs. ATL ($6,100)

QB Kyler Murray vs. SEA ($6,000)

QB Will Levis vs. JAX ($5,000)

RB Alvin Kamara at NYG ($8,000)

RB Bijan Robinson at MIN ($7,500)

RB Bucky Irving vs. LV ($6,600)

RB Najee Harris vs. CLE ($6,000)

RB D'Andre Swift at SF ($5,700)

RB Isaac Guerendo vs. CHI ($5,400)

RB Braelon Allen at MIA ($5,000)

RB Zach Charbonnet at ARI ($4,800), if Kenneth Walker is out

WR Mike Evans vs. LV ($7,200)

WR Davante Adams at MIA ($6,700)

WR Drake London at MIN ($6,400)

WR Jerry Jeudy at PIT ($5,700)

WR Calvin Ridley vs. JAX ($5,700)

WR Jakobi Meyers at TB ($5,600)

WR Jauan Jennings vs. CHI ($5,200)

TE Brock Bowers at TB ($6,500)

TE Trey McBride vs. SEA ($6,100)

TE Evan Engram at TEN ($4,800)

TE Cade Otton vs. LV ($4,400)

TE T.J. Hockenson vs. ATL ($4,300)

TE Juwan Johnson at NYG ($3,400)

D/ST New Orleans Saints at NYG ($2,900)

D/ST Tennessee Titans vs. JAX ($2,800)

D/ST Jacksonville Jaguars at TEN ($2,600)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Las Vegas Raiders (20) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (26.5)

RAIDERS

Raiders games have been voluminous lately, averaging the most combined plays (131) in the league in their last four. The defense isn't stopping anybody either, allowing the third-highest rate of explosive plays and highest opponent neutral pass rate (66 percent) over the same span. Another nice thing about Las Vegas is its offense is so condensed that there are really only three players to consider. Aidan O'Connell ($4,800) is coming off one of the better games of his career against the Chiefs last week when he threw for 340 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. It gives me hope that he can succeed against Tampa Bay's pass funnel, the same way a similarly priced Bryce Young did last week. Brock Bowers ($6,500) had another huge game, catching 10 of 14 targets for 140 yards and a touchdown. It was the second time in his last three he's scored at least 33 fantasy points. It's incredible how fast he's established himself as the best TE in football. Jakobi Meyers ($5,600) caught six of 11 targets for 97 yards. He's drawn at least 11 targets in three of the last four and DraftKings hasn't adjusted his salary enough, so he projects among the top value at WR for what feels like the fifth week running.

BUCCANEERS

Tampa Bay games have been great for stacking all season. They average the second-most combined plays and third-most combined points. Opponents also throw against Tampa Bay at the highest neutral rate (64 percent). It's a good recipe for fantasy points. The Bucs' offense has also become condensed since losing Chris Godwin. Baker Mayfield ($6,400) has topped 23 fantasy points in six of 12 games and a matchup against the Raiders below-average defense presents a nice opportunity to do it again. Mike Evans ($7,200) is back healthy and coming off his best performance of the season against the Panthers last week when he caught eight of 12 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown. It was the fourth time in eight games he's scored at least 23 fantasy points. Cade Otton ($4,500) has taken a back seat since the return of Evans, but his salary is down and he remains viable as Mayfield's second option. Star rookie Bucky Irving ($6,600) has emerged as a premier dual-threat back. He's coming off a massive 28 touches for 183 yards yards last week and back-to-back games of 27-plus fantasy points. He's a little banged up, though, which means that a much cheaper Rachaad White ($5,300) can still be considered for large-field GPPs. 

• Favorite Raiders Stack: QB O'Connell + RB Irving +/- WR Evans + WR Meyers and/or TE Bowers
• Favorite Bucs Stack: QB Mayfield + WR Evans + TE Bowers or WR Meyers 

Chicago Bears (20) at San Francisco 49ers (20)

BEARS

None of the 10 games jump off the page as ones to stack, so I chose this one because it features two pass-first offenses and multiple strong options on the San Francisco side. I wouldn't necessarily recommend stacking Chicago's offense, but it's been a bit better since firing OC Shane Waldron and has picked up the pace some under interim HC Thomas Brown. At least the salaries are affordable and any of the skill players would offer leverage in tournaments. Caleb Williams ($5,600) is coming off consecutive games of at least 26 fantasy points. He's thrown for 596 yards, five TDs and no INTs in that span while rushing for 72 yards. DJ Moore ($6,100) has had back-to-back games of 24 and 30 fantasy points and just drew 16 targets against the Lions last week. He missed practice Thursday with a quad injury, so that will be something to monitor. Keenan Allen ($5,600) has had two good games in a row as well. He caught two TDs last week and nine of 15 targets the week before that, topping 23 fantasy points both times. The success of Moore and Allen has come at the expense of rookie Rome Odunze ($5,000). Nonetheless, Odunze has drawn at least six targets in each of the last six games and remains viable for large-field GPPs at almost no ownership. D'Andre Swift ($5,700) projects as stellar value with Roschon Johnson (concussion) out. He'll be less popular than otherwise given that Guerendo and Allen project just as well for cheaper. 

49ERS

San Francisco lost Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason to injury last week, leaving it especially thin at running back. The 49ers will rely on rookie Isaac Guerendo ($5,400) and players signed off the practice squad to fill the void. Guerendo is priced too cheaply, and I highlighted him below in the "Smash Spot" section, but the lack of a normal running game might put more of the onus on Brock Purdy ($6,200). I wouldn't be surprised to see Kyle Shanahan employ a more pass-first approach and Purdy is certainly capable of handling that. Jauan Jennings ($5,200) projects among the top value at WR and will be one of the most popular players on the board. Deebo Samuel ($5,900), despite being priced cheaper than all season, will go overlooked given how loaded the mid-range is. Same goes for George Kittle ($5,800), who will get overshadowed by Bowers and McBride above him as well Njoku and Engram below. The 49ers have some of the best chalk in Guerendo and Jennings as well as some of the best leverage for tournaments in Purdy, Samuel and Kittle. 

• Favorite Bears Stack: QB Williams + RB Guerendo + WR Allen + WR Jennings or WR Samuel
• Favorite 49ers Stack: QB Purdy + RB Swift (if Johnson is out) + WR Jennings and/or WR Samuel

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Josh Allen + WR Khalil Shakir or WR Amari Cooper + WR Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp

QB Jalen Hurts + WR A.J. Brown or WR DeVonta Smith + WR Xavier Legette

QB Sam Darnold + RB Bijan Robinson or WR Drake London + WR Justin Jefferson and/or TE T.J. Hockenson

QB Kyler Murray + WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba or WR DK Metcalf + TE Trey McBride

QB Geno Smith + WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba or WR DK Metcalf + TE Trey McBride

QB Russell Wilson + WR George Pickens + WR Jerry Jeudy or TE David Njoku

QB Jameis Winston + RB Najee Harris + WR Jerry Jeudy and/or TE David Njoku

QB Will Levis + WR Calvin Ridley + WR Brian Thomas or TE Evan Engram

QB Drew Lock + RB Alvin Kamara + WR Malik Nabers

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Justin Jefferson vs. ATL ($7,800)

A matchup indoors against Atlanta is great spot for any No. 1 WR as the Falcons' defense ranks last in sacks and completion percentage allowed. Jefferson hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 7 or topped 100 yards receiving since Week 9 but now his salary has dropped below $8K for the first time and he won't be overly popular due to all the mid-range value. He's due for some positive regression and would offer some leverage in the process.

• TE Brock Bowers at TB ($6,500)

It's wild that a rookie tight end playing for a bad team is leading the NFL in receptions through 13 games, but that's how good Bowers has been. He's truly a generational talent and is already proving it consistently. He's had two big ceiling games in his last three and Sunday's matchup against Tampa Bay's pass-funnel looks like another good spot for success. Aidan O'Connell has played surprisingly well and the Bucs have been involved in many a shootout this season. The steep salary and plethora of options below should keep his ownership in check too.  

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Saquon Barkley vs. CAR ($9,000)

I like Barkley as much as the next guy. He's been incredible and has a chance to break the single-season rushing record (albeit with an extra game). This just doesn't seem like the slate to spend $9,000 on a running back, or any player for that matter. The Eagles are also double-digit favorites and Barkley has shown that he doesn't mind sitting out the fourth quarter when the game is in hand. Twenty-five points likely wouldn't even be enough to pay off his salary. I'd rather save the money and get more exposure to Alvin Kamara and Bijan Robinson. Or even go cheaper and allocate more salary to TE, where multiple expensive options look good this week. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• RB Isaac Guerendo vs. CHI ($5,400)

The 49ers lost Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason on Monday night and that leaves Guerendo underpriced for his new role as the feature back. He's a talented rookie, one of the fastest and strongest players at the combine and has showcased some of that ability already. He had 14 carries for 85 yards a few weeks ago against the Cowboys and a memorable 76-yard run against the Seahawks in Week 6. The best way to attack the Bears' defense is on the ground where it allows five yards per carry, and Guerendo should benefit from a positive game script at home against a weaker opponent. It's a prime opportunity for 100-plus yards and a score. 

The Bargain Bin

QB Will Levis vs. JAX ($5,000)

QB Aidan O'Connell at TB ($4,800)

QB Drew Lock vs. NO ($4,700)

RB Tyrone Tracy vs. NO ($5,800)

RB D'Andre Swift at SF ($5,700)

RB Isaac Guerendo vs. CHI ($5,400)

RB Braelon Allen at MIA ($5,000)

RB Zach Charbonnet at ARI ($4,800), if Kenneth Walker is out

WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. NO ($4,800), if Malik Nabers is out

WR Elijah Moore at PIT ($4,800), if Cedric Tillman is out

WR Parker Washington at TEN ($4,400)

WR Darius Slayton vs. NO ($4,300), if Malik Nabers is out

TE Juwan Johnson at NYG ($3,400)

Injuries to Monitor 

• RB Kenneth Walker at ARI

Walker missed practice Thursday due to ankle and calf injuries. If he's out, Zach Charbonnet ($4,800) would become yet another source of cheap value at RB. Similar to Guerendo and Allen, he'd be viable in any format. 

Weather

• Not much to worry about this week, though it might be windy in Pittsburgh, with gusts up to 25 mph. Check the forecast Sunday if planning to roster Winston, Wilson, Jeudy, Njoku, Pickens, etc.