DFS Football 101: Important Tips for New Players, Round 9

DFS Football 101: Important Tips for New Players, Round 9

This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.

I'm really loving writing another article in this series that is focused on helping new players improve their DFS game. It has become my favorite piece of the week and I could write 10 of these if RotoWire needed them!

The last three weeks I have written about the quarterback position, running backs, and wide receivers in how to approach them in GPPs. For the next three weeks, I will repeat this process but instead looking at "cash" games. Cash games are defined as "contests in which 50% of the field win".

For this series of articles, the site I am focusing on is DraftKings. DraftKings is a full-point PPR site, with a FLEX, no kickers, and +3 point bonuses for 300 passing yards and 100 rushing/receiving yards. The salary cap is $50,000 and the average cash game score in most weeks is around 150 points. The reason that is important is we need to determine what "multiplier" or "value" is required to hit. A "multiplier" is calculated by taking the players' score, dividing by his salary, and multiplying by 1000. For example, Sammie Coates was $3600 in Week 5 and scored 34.9 points. The multiplier calculation would be: (34.9/$3600)*1000=9.7x value.

So if we know that 150 points is the target and $50,000 is the salary cap, the target for any projection on a player needs to be at least 3x. The challenge in this is finding the most consistent players from week to week that will hit 3x value.

I'm really loving writing another article in this series that is focused on helping new players improve their DFS game. It has become my favorite piece of the week and I could write 10 of these if RotoWire needed them!

The last three weeks I have written about the quarterback position, running backs, and wide receivers in how to approach them in GPPs. For the next three weeks, I will repeat this process but instead looking at "cash" games. Cash games are defined as "contests in which 50% of the field win".

For this series of articles, the site I am focusing on is DraftKings. DraftKings is a full-point PPR site, with a FLEX, no kickers, and +3 point bonuses for 300 passing yards and 100 rushing/receiving yards. The salary cap is $50,000 and the average cash game score in most weeks is around 150 points. The reason that is important is we need to determine what "multiplier" or "value" is required to hit. A "multiplier" is calculated by taking the players' score, dividing by his salary, and multiplying by 1000. For example, Sammie Coates was $3600 in Week 5 and scored 34.9 points. The multiplier calculation would be: (34.9/$3600)*1000=9.7x value.

So if we know that 150 points is the target and $50,000 is the salary cap, the target for any projection on a player needs to be at least 3x. The challenge in this is finding the most consistent players from week to week that will hit 3x value. It is a balance between which positions to pay up for versus where you decide to take value. Often times, the matchups and/or pricing will dictate your weekly strategy.

Let's look at the running back position and build a system to cash game targets.

RB Stats (553 total through Sunday Week 9)
Average Score: 10.86
Average Salary: $4436
Average Value: 2.42

RB (Hit at least 3x – through Sunday Week 9)
Average Score: 20.32
Average Salary: $4621
Average Value: 4.46
Average Pct Hit Value: 177/553 = 32%

Salary Breakdown (# of times hit 3x or greater/total number of players)
$3000: 27/101 (27%)
$3100 - $3900: 39/163 (24%)
$4000 - $4900: 50/125 (40%)
$5000 - $5900: 25/67 (37%)
$6000 - $6900: 21/55 (38%)
$7000 - $8000: 14/41 (34%)

Week – (# of players to hit 3x or greater)
Week 1: 20
Week 2: 14
Week 3: 25
Week 4: 25
Week 5: 21
Week 6: 17
Week 7: 23
Week 8: 19
Week 9: 12

Average per week – 19.5

As you can see there are 18-23 running backs each week that hit 3x, so building a system to allow yourself a great shot at hitting them is key. What I found interesting is that it does not pay to go with the lower priced backs on DraftKings in cash games. The range of $4000-$6900 produced the highest percentage of cash game running backs versus the average. Note that the weekly average was much lower when several teams were on a bye.

Benchmarks:

Salary

Attempts

Rush Yards

Rush TD

Rec.

Rec. Yards

Rec. TD

Average

15

73

0.76

3.3

30

0.22

$3,000

8.7

44

0.4

2.5

23.3

0.15

$3100 - $3900

10.8

53

0.54

3.5

32.3

0.1

$4000 - $4900

15

77

0.92

3

29

0.26

$5000 - $5900

18

82

0.72

3.8

35

0.5

$6000 - $6900

22

104

1.3

3.3

27

0.24

$7000 - $8000

24

112

0.78

4.6

33

0.86


Additional Statistics:
  • The production needed from a back to hit value changes at the $4000 mark with a significant increase in carries, yards, and rushing touchdowns.
  • There was very little difference in receptions and yards needed as you go up the salary tiers.
  • Once you hit $6000, hitting the three-point bonus for 100 yards is key.
  • The following teams have allowed the most running backs to hit 3x value:
    • 49ers (10), Falcons (9), Browns (8), Saints (8), Chiefs (8), Bengals (7), Broncos (7), Texans (7), Colts (7)

Running Backs (Week 1-9 before MNF)

For cash games, you want running backs with the combined highest average points per game and lowest standard deviation.

Player

 Avg Score

 Avg Value

 Std Dev

 Avg Salary

David Johnson

                       23.49

                          3.07

                     7.46

 $                    7,657

DeMarco Murray

                       22.59

                          3.41

                     4.62

 $                    6,800

Ezekiel Elliott

                       21.70

                          3.06

                     6.89

 $                    7,163

Melvin Gordon

                       21.56

                          3.71

                  10.05

 $                    5,810

Le'Veon Bell

                       21.38

                          2.78

                     5.43

 $                    7,720

LeSean McCoy

                       20.21

                          3.06

                  11.63

 $                    6,743

Matt Forte

                       18.88

                          3.13

                  11.05

 $                    6,300

Jay Ajayi

                       18.06

                          4.36

                  12.71

 $                    4,171

Theo Riddick

                       17.43

                          3.76

                     9.11

 $                    4,743

Spencer Ware

                       17.20

                          3.29

                  11.16

 $                    5,700

Carlos Hyde

                       17.08

                          3.58

                     9.51

 $                    4,867

Latavius Murray

                       16.94

                          3.60

                     9.83

 $                    4,971

LeGarrette Blount

                       16.50

                          3.59

                     7.90

 $                    4,738

Tevin Coleman

                       16.34

                          3.71

                  10.36

 $                    4,500

Jordan Howard

                       16.17

                          3.70

                  11.48

 $                    4,586

Devonta Freeman

                       16.11

                          2.76

                     8.66

 $                    6,000

Christine Michael

                       15.83

                          2.84

                     7.87

 $                    5,729

Frank Gore

                       15.69

                          3.16

                     4.03

 $                    5,056

Mark Ingram

                       15.43

                          3.17

                  10.90

 $                    5,725

Lamar Miller

                       15.26

                          2.26

                     9.42

 $                    6,700

C.J. Anderson

                       14.58

                          2.24

                     7.78

 $                    6,750

Isaiah Crowell

                       14.04

                          3.32

                     7.57

 $                    4,300

Giovani Bernard

                       13.58

                          2.98

                     7.26

 $                    4,625

Danny Woodhead

                       13.55

                          2.70

                  13.36

 $                    5,100

Ameer Abdullah

                       13.40

                          2.75

                  13.58

 $                    4,900

Todd Gurley

                       13.31

                          2.01

                     5.22

 $                    6,800

DeAngelo Williams

                       13.12

                          1.88

                  14.78

 $                    6,183

Jacquizz Rodgers

                       12.64

                          3.34

                     8.59

 $                    3,820

Jeremy Hill

                       12.20

                          3.01

                     9.54

 $                    4,175

Peyton Barber

                       11.95

                          4.00

                     3.46

 $                    3,000

Charles Sims

                       11.95

                          2.53

                     9.12

 $                    4,825

Matt Jones

                       11.90

                          2.80

                     8.90

 $                    4,329

Jonathan Stewart

                       11.74

                          2.34

                     9.73

 $                    5,140

 


 

Want to Read More?
Subscribe to RotoWire to see the full article.

We reserve some of our best content for our paid subscribers. Plus, if you choose to subscribe you can discuss this article with the author and the rest of the RotoWire community.

Get Instant Access To This Article Get Access To This Article
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only NFL Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire NFL fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
Wide Receivers vs. Cornerbacks: Week 10 Matchups
Wide Receivers vs. Cornerbacks: Week 10 Matchups
NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 10 Sunday Baller
NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 10 Sunday Baller
Jeff on VSiN:  Week 10 Spreads
Jeff on VSiN: Week 10 Spreads
Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Bengals vs. Ravens
Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Bengals vs. Ravens