DFS Football 101: Important Tips for New Players, Round 6

Last week I wrote about the quarterback position and how to approach it in GPPs. Now that we have six weeks in the book, I wanted to look back on the data and show you how to find those "GPP" or tournament plays that you need to finish in first place at the running back position.

For this series of articles, the site I am focusing on is DraftKings. DraftKings is a full-point PPR site, with a FLEX, no kickers, and +3 point bonuses for 300 passing yards and 100 rushing/receiving yards. The salary cap is $50,000 and the average 1st place score in most large field tournaments is around 200-250 points. The reason that is important is we need to determine what "multiplier" or "value" is required to hit. A "multiplier" is calculated by taking the player's score, dividing by his salary, and multiplying by 1,000. For example, Sammie Coates was $3,600 in Week 5 and scored 34.9 points. The multiplier calculation would be (34.9/3600)*1000=9.7x value.

So if we know that 200-250 points is the target and $50,000 is the salary cap, the target for any projection on a player needs to be at least 4x. The challenge in this is on the higher-priced players it is very hard to achieve 4x or greater because there is only so many points to be scored. On the flip side, take a $3,000 player. They only have to score 12-15 points to achieve 4-5x. In this case, is that enough to win a tournament? Often times it is not. So you really need to find a player who can hit for more value in the 6-8x range at that price. This would also allow you to take a 3x-4x player that has more of floor vs. ceiling.

Let's look at the running back position and build a system to identify tournament targets.

RB Stats (386 total through Sunday Week 6):

• Average Score – 10.77
• Average Salary - $4498
• Average Value – 2.36

• Average Score – 24.12
• Average Salary - $4538
• Average Value – 5.37

• $3000 – 7/62 (11%)
• $3100 - $3900 – 15/113 (13%)
• $4000 - $4900 – 20/88 (23%)
• $5000 - $5900 – 11/54 (20%)
• $6000 - $6900 – 7/40 (17%)
• $7000 - $7900 – 2/29 (7%)

Approximately 15 percent of running backs will hit at least 4x value each week. This is only looking at players that actually played.

Week – (# of players to hit 4x or greater):

• Week 1 – 11
• Week 2 – 6
• Week 3 – 14
• Week 4 – 9
• Week 5 – 12
• Week 6 – 10

As you can see, there are only 10 running backs each week that hit 4x, so building a system to allow yourself a great shot at hitting them is key. This is also noting that you must play two running backs and most often you are playing a running back in the FLEX position.

The following teams have allowed at least three running backs to hit 4x value:

• Saints
• 49ers – 5
• Colts
• Steelers
• Redskins – 4
• Broncos
• Raiders – 3

The following teams have NOT allowed a running back to hit 4x value:

• Bears
• Patriots
• Jets

One team has allowed over 100 total yards and least 2 touchdowns on three occasions: The 49ers.

The following running backs have at least two games of hitting 4x value:

• Carlos Hyde
• Bobby Rainey
• DeMarco Murray
• Devonta Freeman
• Fozzy Whittaker
• Isaiah Crowell
• Jalen Richard
• Jordan Howard
• LeGarrette Blount
• LeSean McCoy
• Matt Jones
• Melvin Gordon
• Spencer Ware
• Tevin Coleman
• Theo Riddick

Benchmarks:

• Running backs in the $3000-$3900 range need to get 85-100 total yards with a shot at a touchdown.

• When you go to the $4000-$4900 range the average touchdown scored jumps from 0.79 to 1.30 so there is a much greater emphasis on scoring.

• For running backs $5000 and greater, there is more emphasis on getting 20 carries and less emphasis on the receptions, but they do help.

• At $6000 and greater you need 20 – 25 carries, 100 yards rushing, 2 touchdowns, and some catches.
• 84% of the time the RB scored at least 1 touchdown
• 37% of the time the RB scored at least 2 touchdowns
• Out of the 10 RBs that did not score a touchdown, their salaries ranged from $3000-$4200
• 75% of the time the RB had at least 15 touches
• 63% of the time the RB had at least 100 total yards
• 60% of the time the RB had at least 15 rushing attempts
• 63% of the time the RB ran for at least 70 yards
• 66% of the time the RB had at least 3 receptions
• 4 running backs had at least 100 receiving yards
• Only 5 times did both RBs from the same team hit 4x value

• Carlos Hyde has hit at least 3.5x in 4 games
• DeMarco Murray has hit at least 3.8x in 4 games and 20 points or greater in 5 games
• LeSean McCoy has hit at least 3.2x in 4 games and 20 points in 4 straight games
• Ezekiel Elliott has hit at least 21 fantasy points in 4 straight games
• Christine Michael has hit at least 20 fantasy points in 3 straight games
• David Johnson has scored at least 15 fantasy points this year
• Jeremy Hill has just one game over 10 fantasy points this year
• Eddie Lacy has a 1.5x value over 6 games this year
• Todd Gurley has a 1.9x value over 6 games this year