This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
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Two of the more exciting offenses in the AFC go head to head in this first-ever meeting between star quarterbacks Josh Allen and C.J. Stroud.
Each squad enters at 3-1 and profiles as a clear AFC contender entering this clash, although each team's lone loss was by a humbling margin.
Let's examine top bets and a game prediction for Sunday's Bills-Texans showdown.
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans Betting Odds for Week 5
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Bills +100 (ESPN BET) / Texans -110 (BetMGM)
Point spread: Bills +1 (Fanatics) / Texans -1 (-105 BetMGM)
Totals: Under 47.5 points (-115 ESPN BET)/ Over 47.0 points (BetRivers)
The spread for this game has seen some interesting movement throughout the last few days, a testament to the close matchup between these teams. However, the number ultimately returned to where it's started at most sportsbooks. The Texans were a 1.0-point home favorite prior to Week 4 action, but early this week, the line crossed over to Bills -1.5. However, that set off some volatility, as the spread swung back to Texans -1, reverted to Bills -1 and then went back to Texans -1 over the course of the week.
In comparison, the total has enjoyed much more stability. It sat at 47.0 points prior to Week 4 action, bumped down to 46.5 early this week, and then rose to 47.5 by midweek. It subsequently bounced between that number and 47.0 as of Friday afternoon.
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Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans Betting Picks This Week
The new-look Bills exceeded expectations over the first three games of the season, rattling off a trio of victories. But they got a splash of cold water Sunday night in Baltimore. Not only did the Ravens thump Buffalo by a 35-10 score, they outgained the Bills by a 427-236 margin in total yardage, and 7.9 - 4.1 in yards per play.
To make matters worse, the Bills suffered two key injuries that will lead to Week 5 absences. Khalil Shakir, the No. 1 receiver this year following the offseason departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, sustained an ankle injury at some point in the contest. Meanwhile starting strong safety Taylor Rapp exited the game with a concussion and has yet to clear protocol.
Then, Von Miller, who recorded 3.0 sacks over the first four games, was handed a four-game suspension Tuesday for violation of the NFL's personal conduct policy stemming from a Nov. 2023 off-field incident. Further, star defensive tackle Ed Oliver popped up on the injury report Thursday with a hamstring issue that will now officially keep him out of Sunday's game and deplete both the Bills' pass-rushing and run-stopping efforts. Given the caliber of offense the Bills will face, Miller and Oliver's absences could prove especially impactful.
The collection of injuries and a suspension leaves the Bills notably short-handed for what would already serve as a challenging road matchup against a mostly healthy Texans squad. Houston will miss Joe Mixon again due to an ankle issue, but Dameon Pierce has a chance to return from his hamstring injury. Meanwhile, Tank Dell is off the injury report after missing the Week 4 win over the Jaguars due to a chest injury, giving Stroud a full arsenal of pass catchers to work with against a short-handed defense.
Even with Mixon out, the Texans have some serviceable replacements in Pierce if he suits up, as well as veteran Cam Akers and the versatile Dare Ogunbowale. Considering the Bills' defense just surrendered 271 rushing yards at 8.0 yards per carry to the Ravens and is now missing Miller, Oliver and Rapp – and could also remain without starting middle linebacker Terrel Bernard (pectoral) – Houston shouldn't have much trouble maintaining a balanced attack, especially if it gets a lead.
Losing Shakir on the other side of the ball also naturally makes the Bills' offense a bit less potent and easier for the Texans to defend. Assuming the Bills struggle to move the ball consistently, Stroud shouldn't be forced into a pass-heavy approach at any point. The second-year signal-caller finished the first three games of the season at 247, 259 and 227 passing + rushing yards combined. Therefore, I like individual bets that bank on the Under and on Stroud finishing with under 272.5 passing + rushing yards, and I don't mind a same-game parlay fueled by the same general idea.
Bills @ Texans Best Bets:
- Under 47.5 points (-105 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- C.J. Stroud Under 272.5 passing + rushing yards (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- SGP: Under 47.5 points and C.J. Stroud Under 260.5 passing yards (+168 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Bills @ Texans Prediction
Texans 24, Bills 20
As already mentioned, the Texans have actually shown a little less explosiveness on offense than popular perceptions. This matchup against a short-handed Bills team missing its No. 1 receiver shouldn't push them into an inordinate degree of aggression. Consequently, I see this as a middle-of-the-road game in terms of scoring and the healthier all-around team, which also happens to be the host, prevailing in a competitive game.
