This article is part of our Best Ball Strategy series.
Now that DraftKings has opened NFL best ball contests, it's time for the initial 2024 iteration of one of my favorite articles. I wouldn't necessarily say this is the most interesting read, but it might be the most useful if you draft best ball teams on multiple sites (or at least are considering it).
Below you'll see a big chart with 219 players sorted by the average of their ADPs (AADP?) between Underdog, DraftKings and Drafters (as of May 10). After that, you'll see a column with the ADP from Underdog only, followed by a column that shows the difference between overall ADP and the numbers from Underdog only . This is labeled UDΔ, and it's simply calculated as: Avg. ADP - UD ADP. You'll then see the same columns for DraftKings and Drafters. Note that the table can be re-sorted by any column; this is quite useful if you want a quick glance at which guys are relatively cheapest/most expensive on a specific site.
The idea, quite simply, is to figure out which players tend to be cheaper/pricier on which site. If a guy is typically a third-round pick on Underdog but a fourth-rounder on DraftKings, you're better off getting most of your shares on DK.
I know some people don't really care about this stuff; they just have names they like and want to draft those guys a lot, with team stacks being the other dominant consideration. Personally, I care a lot about this kind of stuff. Not only does it help with making money; there's a certain fun/challenge to figuring out the most efficient way to build a best ball portfolio.
After the chart, you'll find my analysis on some of the more interesting discrepancies. Before we get started, there are a few things worth keeping in mind when looking at the ADP numbers below. These are general rules we see each year, and looking through the early results they also hold true so far in 2024.
1. The scoring systems aren't identical.
- Underdog = half PPR
- Drafters = full PPR
- DraftKings = full PPR with three-point bonuses at 100 rushing or 300 passing yards
The ADP differences you might expect based on this don't necessarily hold true, i.e., don't assume Derrick Henry will go earlier on UD than he does on the full-PPR sites. This is something we can and should use to our advantage. When I discuss ADP differences between sites at the bottom of this article, I'll ignore minor gaps that can be explained by the differences in settings (and follow the logic, rather than opposing it).
2. Drafters doesn't use playoffs. DraftKings and Underdog do.
- Drafters determines tournament winners by accumulation of points Weeks 1-17
- DraftKings and Underdog use a playoff format Weeks 15-17.
Note: On Drafters, you need to build a team that's dominant from start to finish, which means hitting multiple home runs in the later rounds. On DK and UD, you can get away with simply being pretty good for most of the year; you just need your team to be healthy and peaking late in the season.
On UD and DK, finishing second out of 12 in your league during Weeks 1-14 gets you into the playoffs, at which point anything can happen. A similar team on Drafters will min-cash, with no shot at anything more. This has huge, underrated implications for draft strategy, which I'll dive into more in a future article. Many of these implications also impact ADP, e.g., the heightened importance of late-season production on DK/UD means guys coming back from major injuries tend to go a little bit earlier than on Drafters, where it's a bigger deal if your player doesn't do much during the first part of the season.
3. DraftKings' ADP numbers are impacted considerably by three/six-player drafts.
- In these smaller drafts, top players at the onesies positions (QB/TE) are far more valuable than normal. DraftKings includes the results of those drafts in ADP, whereas Underdog and Drafters either chose not to do so or run so few of the small drafts that it doesn't matter (it's the former, I believe, but I'm only about 90 percent sure).
- There's a positive feedback effect, whereby people in 12-man drafts see QBs and TEs with earlier-than-normal ADPs and figure they need to pick them around those spots or else they'll be gone. You'll rarely see TE Sam LaPorta go in the second round on Underdog or Drafters, but it happens pretty regularly on DK.
The obvious response is to take all the WR value on DK in the early rounds, especially because it's full PPR. Just be careful once you get past the first 5-6 rounds. If you aren't eventually willing to draft QBs and TEs earlier than their ADPs from other sites, you might be left with absolute trash at the position. It's worth "reaching" a bit to avoid that.
4. ADPs on Underdog and Drafters tend to be very similar. DraftKings is the black sheep.
- This is partially, but not entirely, because of the QB/TE inflation mentioned previously. I think it also has to do with DK attracting softer competition. I've always made more money on DK than on the other sites, and there always seem to be glaring ADP inefficiencies in the later rounds.
ADP Comparison Chart (as of May 10)
| Avg ADP | UD ADP | UDΔ | DK ADP | DKΔ | DR ADP | DRΔ | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB | Christian McCaffrey | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 | -0.1 |
| 2 | WR | CeeDee Lamb | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 2.3 | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | WR | Tyreek Hill | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 3.3 | -0.1 |
| 4 | WR | Ja'Marr Chase | 4.3 | 4.1 | 0.2 | 4.8 | -0.5 | 4.0 | 0.3 |
| 5 | WR | Justin Jefferson | 5.6 | 5.2 | 0.4 | 6.3 | -0.7 | 5.2 | 0.4 |
| 6 | WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 5.9 | 6.6 | -0.7 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 5.9 | 0.0 |
| 7 | RB | Bijan Robinson | 7.3 | 6.6 | 0.7 | 8.0 | -0.6 | 7.4 | -0.1 |
| 8 | RB | Breece Hall | 7.8 | 7.7 | 0.1 | 7.4 | 0.4 | 8.2 | -0.4 |
| 9 | WR | Puka Nacua | 9.7 | 9.4 | 0.3 | 11.0 | -1.3 | 8.7 | 1.0 |
| 10 | WR | A.J. Brown | 10.3 | 10.2 | 0.1 | 10.6 | -0.2 | 10.2 | 0.1 |
| 11 | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 11.5 | 12.1 | -0.6 | 9.9 | 1.7 | 12.6 | -1.1 |
| 12 | WR | Garrett Wilson | 12.1 | 11.1 | 1.0 | 14.4 | -2.3 | 10.8 | 1.3 |
| 13 | WR | Marvin Harrison | 14.8 | 13.4 | 1.4 | 17.9 | -3.1 | 13.2 | 1.6 |
| 14 | RB | Saquon Barkley | 15.3 | 14.9 | 0.4 | 12.2 | 3.1 | 18.7 | -3.4 |
| 15 | RB | Jonathan Taylor | 15.4 | 15.5 | -0.1 | 15.1 | 0.3 | 15.6 | -0.2 |
| 16 | RB | Kyren Williams | 19.4 | 20.6 | -1.2 | 16.4 | 3.0 | 21.3 | -1.9 |
| 17 | WR | Davante Adams | 19.8 | 18.9 | 0.9 | 23.2 | -3.4 | 17.2 | 2.6 |
| 18 | WR | Drake London | 20.6 | 15.8 | 4.8 | 31.9 | -11.3 | 14.2 | 6.4 |
| 19 | RB | De'Von Achane | 22.4 | 22.4 | 0.0 | 20.9 | 1.5 | 23.9 | -1.5 |
| 20 | WR | Chris Olave | 22.4 | 18.3 | 4.1 | 32.8 | -10.4 | 16.1 | 6.3 |
| 21 | WR | Brandon Aiyuk | 22.6 | 17.7 | 4.9 | 31.1 | -8.6 | 18.9 | 3.7 |
| 22 | WR | Nico Collins | 22.9 | 22.9 | 0.0 | 25.3 | -2.4 | 20.5 | 2.4 |
| 23 | TE | Sam LaPorta | 24.8 | 28.8 | -4.0 | 16.4 | 8.4 | 29.1 | -4.3 |
| 24 | WR | Stefon Diggs | 25.6 | 24.9 | 0.7 | 27.3 | -1.7 | 24.6 | 1.0 |
| 25 | WR | Mike Evans | 27.1 | 24.8 | 2.3 | 34.6 | -7.5 | 21.8 | 5.3 |
| 26 | QB | Josh Allen | 28.6 | 32.9 | -4.3 | 19.6 | 9.0 | 33.4 | -4.8 |
| 27 | WR | Deebo Samuel | 29.8 | 22.5 | 7.3 | 41.9 | -12.2 | 24.9 | 4.9 |
| 28 | TE | Travis Kelce | 29.8 | 38.4 | -8.6 | 17.7 | 12.1 | 33.3 | -3.5 |
| 29 | WR | DJ Moore | 32.1 | 27.1 | 5.0 | 39.8 | -7.7 | 29.5 | 2.6 |
| 30 | WR | Michael Pittman | 32.5 | 30.4 | 2.1 | 40.7 | -8.2 | 26.5 | 6.0 |
| 31 | RB | Josh Jacobs | 32.8 | 34.2 | -1.4 | 25.9 | 6.9 | 38.3 | -5.5 |
| 32 | WR | Jaylen Waddle | 33.0 | 27.6 | 5.4 | 44.7 | -11.7 | 26.8 | 6.2 |
| 33 | RB | Derrick Henry | 33.4 | 32.2 | 1.2 | 29.0 | 4.3 | 38.9 | -5.5 |
| 34 | QB | Jalen Hurts | 33.7 | 37.6 | -3.9 | 22.9 | 10.8 | 40.5 | -6.8 |
| 35 | WR | Cooper Kupp | 34.6 | 35.3 | -0.7 | 37.0 | -2.4 | 31.5 | 3.1 |
| 36 | WR | Malik Nabers | 35.5 | 28.2 | 7.3 | 50.2 | -14.7 | 28.0 | 7.5 |
| 37 | RB | Travis Etienne | 35.5 | 37.6 | -2.1 | 26.5 | 9.0 | 42.4 | -6.9 |
| 38 | WR | DeVonta Smith | 36.9 | 33.6 | 3.3 | 46.7 | -9.8 | 30.4 | 6.5 |
| 39 | WR | DK Metcalf | 38.3 | 33.2 | 5.1 | 48.8 | -10.4 | 33.0 | 5.3 |
| 40 | QB | Lamar Jackson | 39.3 | 42.3 | -3.0 | 31.0 | 8.3 | 44.6 | -5.3 |
| 41 | TE | Trey McBride | 40.5 | 44.8 | -4.3 | 35.3 | 5.2 | 41.4 | -0.9 |
| 42 | QB | Patrick Mahomes | 41.0 | 44.2 | -3.2 | 29.2 | 11.8 | 49.5 | -8.5 |
| 43 | QB | C.J. Stroud | 43.5 | 48.6 | -5.1 | 27.8 | 15.7 | 54.2 | -10.7 |
| 44 | WR | Zay Flowers | 44.4 | 40.0 | 4.4 | 55.9 | -11.5 | 37.2 | 7.2 |
| 45 | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 44.7 | 46.4 | -1.7 | 39.9 | 4.8 | 47.9 | -3.2 |
| 46 | TE | Dalton Kincaid | 45.2 | 50.2 | -5.0 | 38.2 | 6.9 | 47.1 | -1.9 |
| 47 | WR | Tank Dell | 46.1 | 43.1 | 3.0 | 55.2 | -9.1 | 40.0 | 6.1 |
| 48 | WR | Tee Higgins | 47.9 | 42.2 | 5.7 | 59.3 | -11.5 | 42.1 | 5.8 |
| 49 | TE | Mark Andrews | 48.0 | 53.4 | -5.4 | 39.2 | 8.8 | 51.3 | -3.3 |
| 50 | RB | James Cook | 50.7 | 50.6 | 0.1 | 44.8 | 5.9 | 56.6 | -5.9 |
| 51 | RB | Rachaad White | 50.9 | 53.6 | -2.7 | 39.1 | 11.8 | 59.9 | -9.0 |
| 52 | WR | Keenan Allen | 51.1 | 52.5 | -1.4 | 57.0 | -5.9 | 43.7 | 7.4 |
| 53 | WR | George Pickens | 52.3 | 47.3 | 5.0 | 61.4 | -9.1 | 48.1 | 4.2 |
| 54 | QB | Anthony Richardson | 53.7 | 56.3 | -2.6 | 44.0 | 9.7 | 60.8 | -7.1 |
| 55 | RB | Joe Mixon | 54.6 | 55.4 | -0.8 | 48.7 | 5.9 | 59.8 | -5.2 |
| 56 | WR | Amari Cooper | 55.1 | 51.2 | 3.9 | 65.2 | -10.0 | 49.0 | 6.1 |
| 57 | TE | Kyle Pitts | 55.2 | 60.8 | -5.6 | 48.2 | 7.0 | 56.5 | -1.3 |
| 58 | WR | Christian Kirk | 58.2 | 55.0 | 3.2 | 73.7 | -15.5 | 45.9 | 12.3 |
| 59 | WR | Xavier Worthy | 59.6 | 57.3 | 2.3 | 64.7 | -5.1 | 56.7 | 2.9 |
| 60 | RB | Alvin Kamara | 61.3 | 65.7 | -4.4 | 51.3 | 10.0 | 67.0 | -5.7 |
| 61 | RB | Kenneth Walker | 62.1 | 62.0 | 0.1 | 53.8 | 8.3 | 70.5 | -8.4 |
| 62 | TE | George Kittle | 62.6 | 66.8 | -4.2 | 53.7 | 8.9 | 67.4 | -4.8 |
| 63 | WR | Jayden Reed | 63.4 | 58.7 | 4.7 | 74.9 | -11.5 | 56.5 | 6.9 |
| 64 | WR | Terry McLaurin | 63.8 | 58.6 | 5.2 | 80.2 | -16.4 | 52.6 | 11.2 |
| 65 | WR | Marquise Brown | 64.4 | 61.9 | 2.5 | 69.5 | -5.2 | 61.7 | 2.7 |
| 66 | WR | Rome Odunze | 67.4 | 66.3 | 1.1 | 67.6 | -0.2 | 68.2 | -0.8 |
| 67 | RB | Aaron Jones | 68.3 | 71.5 | -3.2 | 60.3 | 8.0 | 73.2 | -4.9 |
| 68 | TE | Evan Engram | 68.9 | 75.9 | -7.0 | 64.6 | 4.3 | 66.1 | 2.8 |
| 69 | QB | Joe Burrow | 70.0 | 71.9 | -1.9 | 51.5 | 18.5 | 86.6 | -16.6 |
| 70 | WR | Calvin Ridley | 72.2 | 67.4 | 4.8 | 86.8 | -14.6 | 62.5 | 9.7 |
| 71 | RB | David Montgomery | 72.5 | 73.3 | -0.8 | 62.1 | 10.5 | 82.2 | -9.7 |
| 72 | QB | Kyler Murray | 73.0 | 79.0 | -6.0 | 65.2 | 7.9 | 74.9 | -1.9 |
| 73 | WR | Rashee Rice | 73.8 | 76.3 | -2.5 | 76.8 | -3.0 | 68.2 | 5.6 |
| 74 | RB | Rhamondre Stevenson | 76.5 | 77.1 | -0.6 | 72.8 | 3.7 | 79.7 | -3.2 |
| 75 | QB | Dak Prescott | 77.2 | 84.9 | -7.7 | 57.3 | 19.9 | 89.4 | -12.2 |
| 76 | WR | Jordan Addison | 77.4 | 69.4 | 8.0 | 87.0 | -9.7 | 75.7 | 1.7 |
| 77 | WR | Brian Thomas | 77.6 | 74.1 | 3.5 | 83.7 | -6.2 | 74.9 | 2.7 |
| 78 | QB | Jordan Love | 77.7 | 89.1 | -11.4 | 54.7 | 23.0 | 89.3 | -11.6 |
| 79 | RB | Zamir White | 78.9 | 80.3 | -1.4 | 74.8 | 4.1 | 81.6 | -2.7 |
| 80 | WR | Keon Coleman | 79.2 | 73.9 | 5.3 | 88.8 | -9.6 | 74.9 | 4.3 |
| 81 | TE | Jake Ferguson | 79.8 | 88.1 | -8.3 | 73.0 | 6.8 | 78.4 | 1.4 |
| 82 | WR | Ladd McConkey | 79.9 | 69.6 | 10.3 | 99.4 | -19.5 | 70.7 | 9.2 |
| 83 | WR | Chris Godwin | 80.1 | 76.7 | 3.4 | 96.7 | -16.6 | 66.9 | 13.2 |
| 84 | RB | D'Andre Swift | 80.7 | 83.3 | -2.6 | 72.7 | 8.0 | 86.1 | -5.4 |
| 85 | RB | Raheem Mostert | 82.3 | 92.8 | -10.5 | 58.2 | 24.1 | 95.8 | -13.5 |
| 86 | TE | David Njoku | 83.9 | 99.3 | -15.4 | 63.6 | 20.3 | 88.8 | -4.9 |
| 87 | WR | Diontae Johnson | 84.5 | 82.4 | 2.1 | 99.2 | -14.8 | 71.8 | 12.7 |
| 88 | WR | Christian Watson | 85.7 | 86.1 | -0.4 | 90.1 | -4.5 | 80.8 | 4.9 |
| 89 | WR | DeAndre Hopkins | 88.2 | 84.5 | 3.7 | 101.7 | -13.5 | 78.3 | 9.9 |
| 90 | TE | Brock Bowers | 89.1 | 98.5 | -9.4 | 71.5 | 17.6 | 97.3 | -8.2 |
| 91 | RB | Najee Harris | 89.2 | 87.3 | 1.9 | 87.7 | 1.6 | 92.7 | -3.5 |
| 92 | RB | James Conner | 89.4 | 91.7 | -2.3 | 81.0 | 8.3 | 95.4 | -6.0 |
| 93 | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 90.1 | 81.4 | 8.7 | 105.6 | -15.5 | 83.4 | 6.7 |
| 94 | RB | Tony Pollard | 92.2 | 91.7 | 0.5 | 91.1 | 1.1 | 93.9 | -1.7 |
| 95 | QB | Brock Purdy | 93.9 | 103.0 | -9.1 | 70.9 | 23.0 | 107.9 | -14.0 |
| 96 | QB | Caleb Williams | 94.0 | 94.8 | -0.8 | 88.0 | 6.0 | 99.2 | -5.2 |
| 97 | RB | Jaylen Warren | 94.1 | 92.8 | 1.3 | 101.2 | -7.1 | 88.3 | 5.8 |
| 98 | RB | Zack Moss | 94.8 | 94.4 | 0.4 | 94.1 | 0.7 | 95.9 | -1.1 |
| 99 | RB | Jonathon Brooks | 95.2 | 92.7 | 2.5 | 91.5 | 3.7 | 101.4 | -6.2 |
| 100 | RB | Nick Chubb | 100.2 | 104.4 | -4.2 | 68.2 | 32.0 | 128.0 | -27.8 |
| 101 | WR | Jameson Williams | 100.7 | 99.9 | 0.8 | 108.8 | -8.1 | 93.5 | 7.2 |
| 102 | RB | Austin Ekeler | 100.8 | 108.8 | -8.0 | 78.7 | 22.1 | 115.0 | -14.2 |
| 103 | RB | Trey Benson | 101.2 | 101.8 | -0.6 | 95.7 | 5.5 | 106.2 | -5.0 |
| 104 | RB | Javonte Williams | 102.2 | 104.6 | -2.4 | 99.6 | 2.5 | 102.3 | -0.1 |
| 105 | WR | Curtis Samuel | 102.2 | 99.9 | 2.3 | 114.2 | -11.9 | 92.6 | 9.6 |
| 106 | QB | Tua Tagovailoa | 104.3 | 111.7 | -7.4 | 77.0 | 27.3 | 124.1 | -19.8 |
| 107 | TE | Dallas Goedert | 106.8 | 113.2 | -6.4 | 98.2 | 8.7 | 109.1 | -2.3 |
| 108 | QB | Jayden Daniels | 107.7 | 106.3 | 1.4 | 108.7 | -1.0 | 108.1 | -0.4 |
| 109 | WR | Mike Williams | 108.2 | 105.5 | 2.7 | 113.4 | -5.2 | 105.6 | 2.6 |
| 110 | QB | Jared Goff | 109.5 | 120.6 | -11.1 | 86.1 | 23.4 | 121.7 | -12.2 |
| 111 | WR | Romeo Doubs | 110.3 | 115.7 | -5.4 | 111.3 | -1.0 | 104.0 | 6.3 |
| 112 | TE | T.J. Hockenson | 110.6 | 114.8 | -4.2 | 91.6 | 19.0 | 125.4 | -14.8 |
| 113 | WR | Courtland Sutton | 111.8 | 106.2 | 5.6 | 120.6 | -8.8 | 108.7 | 3.1 |
| 114 | WR | Tyler Lockett | 112.7 | 109.7 | 3.0 | 128.4 | -15.7 | 100.0 | 12.7 |
| 115 | RB | Brian Robinson | 112.9 | 111.2 | 1.7 | 111.2 | 1.7 | 116.2 | -3.3 |
| 116 | RB | Devin Singletary | 112.9 | 114.0 | -1.1 | 116.7 | -3.8 | 108.0 | 4.9 |
| 117 | QB | Trevor Lawrence | 114.0 | 117.7 | -3.7 | 108.5 | 5.5 | 115.9 | -1.9 |
| 118 | TE | Dalton Schultz | 114.3 | 125.8 | -11.5 | 98.7 | 15.6 | 118.4 | -4.1 |
| 119 | WR | Khalil Shakir | 114.9 | 115.7 | -0.8 | 123.1 | -8.3 | 105.8 | 9.1 |
| 120 | QB | Justin Herbert | 116.2 | 122.8 | -6.6 | 99.0 | 17.2 | 126.9 | -10.7 |
| 121 | WR | Adonai Mitchell | 118.1 | 113.3 | 4.8 | 119.4 | -1.3 | 121.6 | -3.5 |
| 122 | RB | Gus Edwards | 118.6 | 117.4 | 1.2 | 114.8 | 3.8 | 123.6 | -5.0 |
| 123 | RB | Tyjae Spears | 119.1 | 123.6 | -4.5 | 113.9 | 5.2 | 119.8 | -0.7 |
| 124 | RB | Chase Brown | 120.1 | 119.6 | 0.5 | 127.6 | -7.5 | 113.0 | 7.1 |
| 125 | WR | Jakobi Meyers | 120.4 | 121.7 | -1.3 | 124.6 | -4.2 | 114.9 | 5.5 |
| 126 | QB | Kirk Cousins | 122.8 | 133.6 | -10.8 | 99.0 | 23.8 | 135.8 | -13.0 |
| 127 | WR | Rashid Shaheed | 123.9 | 122.5 | 1.4 | 132.1 | -8.1 | 117.2 | 6.7 |
| 128 | WR | Joshua Palmer | 125.1 | 126.0 | -0.9 | 133.8 | -8.7 | 115.5 | 9.6 |
| 129 | RB | Blake Corum | 127.5 | 130.3 | -2.8 | 121.9 | 5.7 | 130.4 | -2.9 |
| 130 | TE | Cole Kmet | 130.0 | 135.1 | -5.1 | 113.9 | 16.1 | 141.0 | -11.0 |
| 131 | RB | Ezekiel Elliott | 131.0 | 128.1 | 2.9 | 132.2 | -1.3 | 132.6 | -1.6 |
| 132 | RB | Jerome Ford | 131.9 | 136.8 | -4.9 | 131.8 | 0.1 | 127.0 | 4.9 |
| 133 | WR | Gabe Davis | 132.2 | 129.6 | 2.6 | 140.5 | -8.3 | 126.5 | 5.7 |
| 134 | TE | Pat Freiermuth | 133.8 | 141.7 | -7.9 | 117.6 | 16.2 | 142.2 | -8.4 |
| 135 | WR | Brandin Cooks | 135.0 | 134.6 | 0.4 | 140.8 | -5.8 | 129.7 | 5.3 |
| 136 | WR | Jerry Jeudy | 135.9 | 131.7 | 4.2 | 146.1 | -10.3 | 129.8 | 6.1 |
| 137 | RB | Zach Charbonnet | 137.0 | 136.0 | 1.0 | 137.7 | -0.8 | 137.2 | -0.2 |
| 138 | WR | Josh Downs | 137.6 | 137.7 | -0.1 | 142.3 | -4.7 | 132.8 | 4.8 |
| 139 | WR | Jahan Dotson | 138.8 | 132.5 | 6.3 | 149.2 | -10.5 | 134.6 | 4.2 |
| 140 | QB | Matthew Stafford | 140.2 | 142.7 | -2.5 | 126.7 | 13.5 | 151.2 | -11.0 |
| 141 | WR | Xavier Legette | 140.9 | 139.5 | 1.4 | 144.4 | -3.6 | 138.7 | 2.2 |
| 142 | QB | Aaron Rodgers | 140.9 | 147.7 | -6.8 | 118.5 | 22.4 | 156.6 | -15.7 |
| 143 | RB | Rico Dowdle | 141.4 | 140.4 | 1.0 | 143.9 | -2.5 | 139.9 | 1.5 |
| 144 | TE | Luke Musgrave | 144.2 | 152.2 | -8.0 | 126.2 | 18.0 | 154.3 | -10.1 |
| 145 | RB | Jaylen Wright | 144.4 | 145.1 | -0.7 | 143.2 | 1.2 | 144.9 | -0.5 |
| 146 | WR | Ricky Pearsall | 147.5 | 144.4 | 3.1 | 152.0 | -4.5 | 146.0 | 1.5 |
| 147 | WR | Dontayvion Wicks | 148.0 | 145.4 | 2.6 | 157.8 | -9.8 | 140.9 | 7.1 |
| 148 | WR | Quentin Johnston | 152.9 | 148.9 | 4.0 | 161.3 | -8.5 | 148.4 | 4.5 |
| 149 | RB | Kendre Miller | 153.0 | 154.4 | -1.4 | 157.2 | -4.3 | 147.3 | 5.7 |
| 150 | WR | Troy Franklin | 153.3 | 153.4 | -0.1 | 155.8 | -2.5 | 150.7 | 2.6 |
| 151 | QB | Deshaun Watson | 154.0 | 161.4 | -7.4 | 136.2 | 17.8 | 164.4 | -10.4 |
| 152 | WR | Darnell Mooney | 154.3 | 150.5 | 3.8 | 168.1 | -13.8 | 144.4 | 9.9 |
| 153 | QB | Baker Mayfield | 154.8 | 156.9 | -2.1 | 141.5 | 13.3 | 165.9 | -11.1 |
| 154 | RB | J.K. Dobbins | 157.1 | 161.2 | -4.1 | 138.3 | 18.8 | 171.7 | -14.6 |
| 155 | RB | Ray Davis | 157.4 | 158.8 | -1.4 | 163.7 | -6.3 | 149.8 | 7.6 |
| 156 | RB | Ty Chandler | 159.0 | 152.4 | 6.6 | 174.2 | -15.2 | 150.4 | 8.6 |
| 157 | WR | Roman Wilson | 159.8 | 159.2 | 0.6 | 165.1 | -5.3 | 155.1 | 4.7 |
| 158 | TE | Hunter Henry | 160.0 | 161.7 | -1.7 | 157.6 | 2.4 | 160.7 | -0.7 |
| 159 | RB | Chuba Hubbard | 161.4 | 166.6 | -5.2 | 152.7 | 8.7 | 164.9 | -3.5 |
| 160 | RB | MarShawn Lloyd | 161.5 | 147.3 | 14.2 | 185.4 | -23.9 | 151.9 | 9.6 |
| 161 | TE | Cade Otton | 161.6 | 167.8 | -6.2 | 138.3 | 23.3 | 178.7 | -17.1 |
| 162 | WR | Michael Wilson | 162.4 | 157.5 | 4.9 | 177.4 | -15.0 | 152.3 | 10.1 |
| 163 | RB | Antonio Gibson | 163.2 | 170.8 | -7.6 | 162.9 | 0.3 | 155.8 | 7.4 |
| 164 | WR | Adam Thielen | 163.2 | 166.8 | -3.6 | 161.9 | 1.4 | 161.0 | 2.2 |
| 165 | WR | Ja'Lynn Polk | 164.6 | 155.7 | 8.9 | 180.1 | -15.5 | 158.1 | 6.5 |
| 166 | RB | Tyler Allgeier | 166.0 | 168.0 | -2.0 | 165.1 | 0.9 | 164.8 | 1.2 |
| 167 | QB | J.J. McCarthy | 167.6 | 177.6 | -10.0 | 127.6 | 40.0 | 197.6 | -30.0 |
| 168 | TE | Ben Sinnott | 168.7 | 152.4 | 16.3 | 184.1 | -15.4 | 169.6 | -0.9 |
| 169 | WR | Malachi Corley | 168.9 | 169.5 | -0.6 | 173.0 | -4.2 | 164.1 | 4.8 |
| 170 | WR | Jermaine Burton | 169.2 | 161.6 | 7.6 | 183.9 | -14.7 | 162.1 | 7.1 |
| 171 | TE | Juwan Johnson | 169.7 | 174.1 | -4.4 | 169.0 | 0.7 | 166.1 | 3.6 |
| 172 | QB | Geno Smith | 170.8 | 172.6 | -1.8 | 159.8 | 10.9 | 179.9 | -9.1 |
| 173 | QB | Will Levis | 172.6 | 177.1 | -4.5 | 156.3 | 16.3 | 184.3 | -11.7 |
| 174 | TE | Isaiah Likely | 172.6 | 178.1 | -5.5 | 158.3 | 14.3 | 181.4 | -8.8 |
| 175 | RB | Kimani Vidal | 172.9 | 163.1 | 9.8 | 192.1 | -19.2 | 163.5 | 9.4 |
| 176 | WR | Marvin Mims | 173.6 | 170.7 | 2.9 | 179.8 | -6.2 | 170.4 | 3.2 |
| 177 | TE | Tyler Conklin | 178.5 | 179.8 | -1.3 | 166.5 | 12.0 | 189.2 | -10.7 |
| 178 | TE | Taysom Hill | 178.9 | 216.0 | -37.1 | 144.0 | 34.9 | 176.7 | 2.2 |
| 179 | RB | Jaleel McLaughlin | 179.7 | 181.3 | -1.6 | 175.5 | 4.2 | 182.2 | -2.5 |
| 180 | RB | Bucky Irving | 179.8 | 173.5 | 6.3 | 196.7 | -16.9 | 169.3 | 10.5 |
| 181 | RB | Khalil Herbert | 183.1 | 182.1 | 1.0 | 190.4 | -7.3 | 176.7 | 6.4 |
| 182 | WR | Rashod Bateman | 184.0 | 183.1 | 0.9 | 190.6 | -6.5 | 178.4 | 5.6 |
| 183 | RB | Roschon Johnson | 184.5 | 182.4 | 2.1 | 184.2 | 0.3 | 186.8 | -2.3 |
| 184 | WR | Wan'Dale Robinson | 186.0 | 186.2 | -0.2 | 195.2 | -9.2 | 176.6 | 9.4 |
| 185 | TE | Jonnu Smith | 186.6 | 187.5 | -0.9 | 195.7 | -9.1 | 176.6 | 10.0 |
| 186 | RB | Keaton Mitchell | 187.3 | 190.6 | -3.3 | 178.1 | 9.2 | 193.3 | -6.0 |
| 187 | QB | Justin Fields | 187.4 | 194.5 | -7.1 | 159.3 | 28.1 | 208.5 | -21.1 |
| 188 | QB | Derek Carr | 188.0 | 199.4 | -11.4 | 170.4 | 17.6 | 194.3 | -6.3 |
| 189 | WR | Javon Baker | 188.3 | 184.0 | 4.3 | 201.4 | -13.2 | 179.4 | 8.9 |
| 190 | QB | Drake Maye | 189.7 | 193.4 | -3.7 | 183.2 | 6.5 | 192.6 | -2.9 |
| 191 | RB | Elijah Mitchell | 189.8 | 200.5 | -10.7 | 171.8 | 18.0 | 197.1 | -7.3 |
| 192 | WR | Demario Douglas | 190.0 | 190.6 | -0.6 | 192.9 | -2.8 | 186.6 | 3.4 |
| 193 | WR | Luke McCaffrey | 191.3 | 178.5 | 12.8 | 216.0 | -24.7 | 179.3 | 12.0 |
| 194 | QB | Bryce Young | 193.4 | 198.4 | -5.0 | 179.2 | 14.2 | 202.5 | -9.1 |
| 195 | RB | Tyrone Tracy | 193.5 | 185.5 | 8.0 | 214.0 | -20.5 | 181.0 | 12.5 |
| 196 | RB | Dameon Pierce | 194.1 | 193.4 | 0.7 | 186.6 | 7.5 | 202.4 | -8.3 |
| 197 | QB | Daniel Jones | 194.4 | 204.4 | -10.0 | 173.7 | 20.7 | 205.2 | -10.8 |
| 198 | TE | Noah Fant | 198.8 | 191.5 | 7.3 | 209.6 | -10.8 | 195.3 | 3.5 |
| 199 | WR | Demarcus Robinson | 198.9 | 194.6 | 4.3 | 216.0 | -17.1 | 186.2 | 12.7 |
| 200 | TE | Chigoziem Okonkwo | 199.5 | 197.4 | 2.1 | 185.2 | 14.4 | 216.0 | -16.5 |
| 201 | WR | Odell Beckham | 201.9 | 197.7 | 4.2 | 203.0 | -1.1 | 204.9 | -3.0 |
| 202 | RB | Audric Estime | 202.4 | 209.1 | -6.7 | 198.1 | 4.3 | 200.1 | 2.3 |
| 203 | QB | Bo Nix | 203.2 | 208.7 | -5.5 | 190.1 | 13.1 | 210.8 | -7.6 |
| 204 | QB | Russell Wilson | 203.8 | 211.2 | -7.4 | 184.2 | 19.6 | 216.0 | -12.2 |
| 205 | WR | Devontez Walker | 204.3 | 198.2 | 6.1 | 216.0 | -11.7 | 198.8 | 5.5 |
| 206 | TE | Ja'Tavion Sanders | 206.2 | 206.2 | 0.0 | 202.5 | 3.7 | 209.8 | -3.6 |
| 207 | WR | Malik Washington | 207.1 | 208.0 | -0.9 | 216.0 | -8.9 | 197.3 | 9.8 |
| 208 | RB | Will Shipley | 207.8 | 210.0 | -2.2 | 210.7 | -2.9 | 202.8 | 5.0 |
| 209 | TE | Mike Gesicki | 208.8 | 203.8 | 5.0 | 206.6 | 2.2 | 216.0 | -7.2 |
| 210 | WR | Jalen McMillan | 210.3 | 210.5 | -0.2 | 216.0 | -5.7 | 204.3 | 6.0 |
| 211 | WR | Tyler Boyd | 210.4 | 202.2 | 8.2 | 213.0 | -2.6 | 216.0 | -5.6 |
| 212 | WR | Jalin Hyatt | 210.6 | 211.0 | -0.4 | 205.5 | 5.0 | 215.2 | -4.6 |
| 213 | RB | Isaac Guerendo | 211.2 | 208.4 | 2.8 | 216.0 | -4.8 | 209.2 | 2.0 |
| 214 | TE | Tucker Kraft | 211.6 | 206.5 | 5.1 | 212.4 | -0.8 | 216.0 | -4.4 |
| 215 | RB | D'Onta Foreman | 213.0 | 216.0 | -3.0 | 212.9 | 0.1 | 210.1 | 2.9 |
| 216 | WR | Elijah Moore | 213.3 | 208.0 | 5.3 | 216.0 | -2.7 | 216.0 | -2.7 |
| 217 | WR | Kendrick Bourne | 213.4 | 216.0 | -2.6 | 210.8 | 2.6 | 213.3 | 0.1 |
| 218 | WR | DJ Chark | 213.7 | 209.0 | 4.7 | 216.0 | -2.3 | 216.0 | -2.3 |
| 219 | WR | Brenden Rice | 214.2 | 210.5 | 3.7 | 216.0 | -1.8 | 216.0 | -1.8 |
Underdog Breakdown 🐕
Later ADPs (Cheaper) on UD
RB Elijah Mitchell (UD: 200.5 / Avg: 189.8)
Mitchell is cheapest on the half-PPR site despite having 11.7 carries for every reception throughout this career. That ratio won't hold for the scenario we care about in which Christian McCaffrey is injured, but it's probably fair to say that Mitchell's production would still lean heavily toward rushing yards and TDs. I really like the price here, with the combination of McCaffrey's recent run of good health and San Francisco's addition of fourth-round pick Isaac Guerendo causing many fantasy players to forget that Mitchell is (probably) still just one injury away from a starting job in Kyle Shanahan's backfield.
The guy who would need to suffer that injury, McCaffrey, is certainly well-suited to large workloads, but even for him there's no way to take 20 touches per game without carrying a lot of injury risk. Looking at the past half-decade, public perception of McCaffrey's "durability" is one of the funnier and more glaring examples of the strength of recency bias. Anyway, I love Mitchell as a 16th/17th-round pick on Underdog.
TE David Njoku (UD: 99.3 / Avg: 83.9)
Like many tight ends, Njoku has an inflated ADP on DraftKings (63.6). However, he's also going much earlier on Drafters (88.8) than Underdog (99.3), which isn't necessarily a product of differences in scoring system. Njoku scored six TDs last season, and over the years he's typically maintained above-average rates of yards and TDs per reception by TE standards, i.e., half PPR vs. full PPR shouldn't make much of a difference for his value (apart from half PPR slightly increasing the incentive to draft QBs or non-receiving RBs in the same range).
If anything, Njoku might be more reliant on TDs and big plays rather than volume this year. Last season's target total (123) topped his previous career high by 35, and the Browns improved their pass-catching depth this offseason with the trade for WR Jerry Jeudy. The ninth-round price on Underdog allows Njoku to lose a bunch of targets from last season and still be a good pick.
QB Derek Carr (UD: 199.4 / Avg: 188.0)- RB Jerome Ford (UD: 136.8 / Avg: 131.9)
WR Romeo Doubs (UD: 115.7 / Avg: 110.3)
TE Kyle Pitts (UD: 60.8 / Avg: 55.2)
TE Jake Ferguson (UD: 88.1 / Avg: 79.8)
TE Dalton Schultz (UD: 125.8 / Avg: 114.3)
Earlier ADPs (Expensive) on UD
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (UD: 81.4 / Avg: 90.1)
I'd expect JSN to be most expensive not on Underdog but instead on Drafters, where there's full-PPR scoring and maximized incentive to value ceiling over floor. Or maybe I've got it wrong and people are viewing him as more of a floor play, figuring he's definitely a good player but has limited target upside in an offense with DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett. I'm more confident about the second part than the first; for me, Smith-Njigba's downside scenarios carry more weight than the upside ones. I'm not sold on the player, and don't think he'll see that many targets even if he does take a huge step forward in real-life terms.
WR Jordan Addison (UD: 69.3 / Avg: 77.4)
In the interest of objectivity, I'm including a second-year WR that also qualifies for this list but who I personally have a lot more confidence in. Like JSN, the Vikings' No. 2 receiver is going earlier on UD than on the other two sites. That's less confusing in this case because Addison was a higher-aDOT, higher-TD guy during his rookie season, minimizing the value difference between half PPR and full. Still, there's better value to be had by taking him on Drafters or DK instead of Underdog.
WR Ja'Lynn Polk (UD: 155.7 / Avg: 164.6)
WR Tyler Boyd (UD: 202.2 / Avg: 210.4)
TE Ben Sinnott (UD: 152.4 / Avg: 168.7)
DraftKings Breakdown 👑
The trend of QBs and TEs going earlier on DK is so strong that it isn't worth mentioning specific examples for the most part. I might point out a couple of the more extreme cases, but really what's more helpful is to identify QBs/TEs that buck the trend (or at least come close to doing so).
Running backs also tend to go earlier on DraftKings, i.e., wide receivers tend to go much later. Again, I'm not going to point out every example of the trend but will indeed highlight some of the more extreme cases (plus exceptions to the general rule(s)).
Later ADPs (Cheaper) on DK
- QB Jayden Daniels (DK: 108.7 / Avg: 107.7)
Daniels is the only quarterback with a DraftKings ADP that's about the same as his ADP on the other two sites. You'll notice that two other Commanders are listed in this section, so there's massive overall value in stacking the Washington offense on DK (at least relative to other sites). Others might frame it as Washington stacks being a rip-off/overvalued on Underdog and Drafters.
- TE Ben Sinnott (DK: 184.1 / Avg: 168.7)
Rookies tend to go later on DraftKings compared to the other sites, and in this case it outweighs the impact of TE inflation. Sinnott was a good second-round pick for the TE-needy Commanders; personally, I'd grade him at something like an A- for measurables, B for college production and B+ for film. His gait/posture makes him look like a fullback, but he erased any concerns there when he ran a 4.68 40 at 6-4, 250. Sinnott was even better in the other combine drills, with his vertical jump (40 in.) and broad jump (126 in.) ranking well above average... by WR standards.
- TE Jake Ferguson (DK: 73.0. / Avg: 79.8)
Ferguson is one of the few prominent players at QB or TE with a DraftKings ADP similar to his ADPs on Underdog and Drafters. This makes him an ideal candidate for the seventh round or late sixth when you go WR heavy early on while QBs/TEs fly off the board. It might feel like a slight reach still compared to his ADP on Underdog, in particular, but the slight reach is better than making an extreme reach earlier or ending up near-barren at tight end.
Other examples of QBs and TEs without the massive inflation on DK include Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye Evan Engram, Dallas Goedert Juwan Johnson, Noah Fant and Hunter Henry. Generally speaking, the effect is less pronounced in later rounds, and much less pronounced among rookies.
QB Trevor Lawrence (DK: 108.5 / Avg: 114.0)- RB MarShawn Lloyd (DK: 185.4 / Avg: 161.5)
RB Kimani Vidal (DK: 192.1 / Avg: 172.9)- RB Ty Chandler (DK: 174.2 / Avg: 159.0)
RB Jaylen Warren (DK: 101.2 / Avg: 94.1)
RB Chase Brown (DK: 127.5 / Avg: 120.1)- WR Ladd McConkey (DK: 99.4 / Avg: 79.9)
- WR Terry McLaurin (DK: 80.2 / Avg: 63.8)
WR Malik Nabers (DK: 50.2 / Avg: 35.5)- WR Drake London (DK: 31.9 / Avg: 20.6)
- WR Chris Olave (DK: 32.8 / Avg: 22.4)
- TE Noah Fant (DK 209.6 / Avg: 198.8)
- TE Juwan Johnson (DK: 169.0 / Avg: 169.7)
Earlier ADPs (Expensive) on DK
RB Raheem Mostert (DK: 58.2 / Avg.: 82.3)
The combination of full PPR and yardage bonuses relatively devalues touchdowns on DraftKings. Not to be dissuaded, drafters on DK are sometimes taking Mostert as early as the fifth or sixth round, though the value is infinitely better if you get him as an eight-round pick in Underdog's half-PPR format.
FWIW, there's a general trend here where RBs that are older and/or coming back from major injuries go earlier on DK than on the other sites. I don't disagree in every case (see: Ekeler), but mostly it seems to be inflation based on name recognition, furthering the thesis that DK has the softest competition.
RB Rachaad White (DK: 39.1 / Avg: 50.9)
White doesn't quite fit with the other RBs that have inflated prices on DraftKings, as he's entering his third season after a healthy second year. It does seem, however, that drafters on DK value put a bit of extra weight on previous-year production. In a lot of cases, that's probably a bad thing. In this case, I'm not so sure. White may only be average as a pure runner, but his combination of youth, size and receiving ability seems promising for continued production.
- QB J.J. McCarthy (DK: 127.6 / Avg: 167.6)
- QB Tua Tagovailoa (DK: 77.0 / Avg: 104.3)
- QB C.J. Stroud (DK: 27.8 / Avg: 43.5)
- RB Travis Etienne (DK: 26.5 / Avg: 35.5)
- RB Nick Chubb (DK: 68.2 / Avg: 100.2)
- RB Austin Ekeler (DK: 78.7 / Avg: 100.8)
- RB J.K. Dobbins (DK: 138.3 / Avg: 157.1)
RB David Montgomery (DK: 62.1 / Avg: 72.5)- RB Elijah Mitchell (DK: 171.8 / Avg: 189.8)
RB Keaton Mitchell (DK: 178.1 / Avg: 187.3)- TE David Njoku (DK: 63.6 / Avg: 83.9)
TE Brock Bowers (DK: 71.5 / Avg: 89.1)- TE Cade Otton (DK: 138.3 / Avg: 161.6)
Drafters Breakdown 🤓
Later ADPs (Cheaper) on Drafters
- QB J.J. McCarthy (DR: 197.6 / Avg: 167.6)
McCarthy is going at QB25 on Underdog, QB21 on DraftKings and QB27 on Drafters. We also generally see QBs going later on Drafters than the other sites, so it adds up to a fantastic value, even if there's logic that arguably backs waiting on the position in a setup with full-PPR scoring and no playoffs.
- RB Austin Ekeler (DR: 115.0 / Avg: 100.8)
One might assume Ekeler is most valuable on Drafters, the home of full-PPR scoring and no yardage bonuses. Other fantasy players apparently disagree, which might be because Ekeler is now viewed as a floor play rather than a ceiling option (and Drafters' total-points formats encourages shooting for the moon with every pick). I don't agree with that, as it's possible the decline we saw last season was less about aging and more about Ekeler's high-ankle sprain. He had 164 yards Week 1 before suffering the injury, and by the end of the year he was playing in a collapsed offense.
- QB Joe Burrow (DR: 86.6 / Avg: 70.0)
- QB Tua Tagovailoa (DR: 124.1 / Avg: 104.3)
- RB Travis Etienne (DR: 42.4 / Avg: 35.5)
- RB Rachaad White (DR: 59.9 / Avg. 50.9)
- RB Nick Chubb (DR: 128.0 / Avg: 104.4)
Earlier ADPs (Expensive) on Drafters
- WR Christian Kirk (DR: 45.9 / Avg: 58.2)
I'm surprised to see Kirk going nearly a full round earlier on Drafters than he is on DraftKings. He topped 13.0 yards per catch in both of his first two seasons with Jacksonville and has 11 scores on 141 catches for the Jags, so the difference between half PPR and full PPR shouldn't make a huge difference here. It is true that WRs tend to go earliest on Drafters, just not to this extent in most cases.
RB Ray Davis (DR: 149.8 / Avg: 157.4)- RB Chase Brown (DR: 113.0 / Avg: 120.1)
RB Khalil Herbert (DR: 176.7 / Avg: 183.1)- WR Terry McLaurin (DR: 52.6 / Avg: 63.8)
- WR Drake London (DR: 14.2 / Avg: 20.6)
- WR Tyler Lockett (DR: 100.0 / Avg: 112.7)
- WR Mike Evans (DR: 21.8 / Avg: 24.8)
