Beating the Book: Raiders End On High Note, Bills Win AFC East + Full NFL Week 18 ATS PIcks

Welcome to the Week 18 edition of Beating the Book!

We've made it to the final week of the regular season, which will unfold over the course of only two days. The schedule-makers hand us a pair of meaningful games on Saturday before we enter a 14-game Sunday slate that concludes with Bills-Dolphins in Miami with the AFC East crown on the line.

But before we get to Week 18, we need to discuss what was a frustrating Week 17. We finished just 6-9-1 ATS – our worst mark in a while – and fell to 11-6 on the year in best bets thanks to my irrational confidence in the Carolina Panthers, who went 1-of-13 on third downs and finished with just 124 total yards of offense against the C.J. Beathard-led Jaguars.

That game was a major miss, but we also sided with Miami to cover against Baltimore (dumb), the Eagles to cruise against Arizona (even dumber) and Tampa Bay to not lay an egg versus New Orleans (don't want to talk about it). The one big miss I don't feel bad about is taking Minnesota to win outright against Green Bay. At the time we made the pick, we thought Nick Mullens would be under center. In hindsight, the Packers probably win that game either way, but forcing Jaren Hall into the lineup was an obvious, critical mistake by Kevin O'Connell.

Alright, that's enough whining. Let's get to Week 18. 

As usual, the final week of the regular season brings us a healthy mix of extremely meaningful and extremely meaningless matchups. Understanding what's at stake for each team, and how that may shape the status of key players, is an especially crucial factor. There's a reason Pittsburgh is a 4.0-point favorite in Baltimore and the Chargers are 3.5-point favorites over Kansas City.

You can find my thoughts on those games, as well as the entire Week 18 slate, below. As is the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Last week: 6-9-1 ATS; 11-5 SU; best bet lost (CAR +7.0)

On the season: 122-126-8 ATS, 164-92 SU; 11-6 best bet

Best calls of Week 17:

• The Texans' defense and offensive live have started to slip over the second half of the season, so this won't be a walk in the park for Houston, but it's tough to overstate how much of an upgrade Stroud brings to this offense. If the Texans found a way to win by three in Nashville two weeks ago without Stroud, we have to like their chances to win and cover this game.
• The Bears' defense should be able to slow down the Falcons' rushing attack, which racked up over 175 yards against the Colts last week. As we know, the Falcons are a much different team on the road, and conditions on Sunday should certainly favor the Bears.

Worst calls of Week 17:

• Ultimately, I see this being a very close game between the NFL's most explosive offense and the league's best defense. I lean toward Baltimore to grind out a narrow win at home, but give me Miami to make it a field-goal game and secure the cover.
• It may not be pretty – Eagles games rarely are these days – but I like this as a confidence-building spot for the Eagles, who desperately need to find their mojo before the postseason.

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Saturday Games

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+4.0)

What's on the line:

• Baltimore is locked into the No. 1 seed in the AFC
• Pittsburgh can clinch a Wild Card spot with a win + a Buffalo loss OR Jacksonville loss (or HOU-IND tie). Steelers can also make playoffs with a loss + Jacksonville loss + Denver win + HOU-IND non-tie.

As noted above, the Steelers are still very much alive in the AFC playoff picture, but they'll need some help from a variety of other teams. Baltimore has the No. 1 seed locked up, and it's widely expected that they'll rest several key players, including Lamar Jackson. That means we're looking at a Mason Rudolph vs. Tyler Huntley showdown. 

In a matchup between two division rivals, we shouldn't expect the Ravens to completely lay down – and keep in mind, teams can only rest so many players, so a good chunk of Baltimore's starters will have to play at least part of the game. The Ravens have enough depth on defense to make things difficult for the Steelers, but in a gotta-have-it spot for Pittsburgh, I think they find a way to win. The Ravens can cover with the hook, however.

The pick: Steelers 23 – Ravens 20

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+1.0)

What's on the line:

• Both teams clinch a playoff spot with a win
• Both teams clinch the AFC South with a win + Jacksonville loss

There are some other wild tiebreakers in play here, but the bottom line is this is essentially a win-and-you're-in game for both teams, regardless of what happens in the Jacksonville-Tennessee game. 

Over the last 24 hours, the line has flipped from Indy -1.0 to +1.0, indicating some support for the Texans, who are coming off of a beatdown against Tennessee last week in C.J. Stroud's return from a two-game absence. The Colts are certainly capable of winning this game, but with Stroud back in the mix, I lean toward the Texans – especially now that they've discovered a consistent-by-their-standards run game led by Devin Singletary.

In all likelihood, this will be a wild game that swings back and forth multiple times, but give me the Texans to win and punch their ticket to the postseason.

The pick: Texans 30 – Colts 27

Sunday Early Games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+5.0)

What's on the line:

• Tampa Bay clinches the NFC South win a win
• Carolina has clinched the worst record in the NFL and will send the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to Chicago

The Bucs blew a golden opportunity to clinch the division in Week 17, but they'll have another chance to do so this week against the worst team in the NFL. Hand up: I thought the Panthers had a chance to win in Jacksonville last week, and instead they played arguably their worst offensive game of the season against a shaky Jags defense. Based on what we saw last week, it's tough in envision the Panthers picking themselves up off the mat, but this is their final chance to play spoiler and salvage something out of what's been an abject disaster of a season on multiple fronts.

Last week, the Bucs reminded us that they are, in fact, an NFC South team and therefore cannot be trusted, but it's difficult to envision them getting tripped up in this spot – even if these teams played a three-point game back in Week 13. Cautiously, we'll take the Bucs to win and cover on the road.

The pick: Buccaneers 24 – Panthers 13

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.0)

What's on the line:

• Cleveland is locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC
• Cincinnati is eliminated from playoff contention and currently holds the 16th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft

As expected, the Browns have already confirmed that Joe Flacco will get the week off, and it's likely that several other key players will follow suit. A Jeff Driskel start means this should be a very winnable game for Cincinnati, though it remains to be seen if the Bengals will opt to take it easy with any of their stars in what's ultimately a meaningless game. 

If Cincinnati opts to play the likes of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, I like the Bengals to finish out the Jake Browning Era on a high note. But if the Bengals do pull back and start looking ahead to 2024, this becomes a completely unpredictable game that the Browns could cover. Without having much clarity on the Cincinnati side, we'll take the Bengals to win by a touchdown at home.

The pick: Bengals 24 – Browns 17

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3.0)

What's on the line:

• Detroit has clinched at least the No. 3 seed in the NFC. The Lions could move up to the 2-seed with a win + Dallas loss + Philly loss
• Minnesota can clinch a Wild Card berth with a win + Green Bay loss + Seattle loss + Tampa Bay loss; OR a win + a Green Bay loss + Seattle loss + New Orleans loss

Long story short: the Vikings need a lot of help. The decision to roll out Jaren Hall over Nick Mullens last week was a questionable one at the time and looks even worse in retrospect. Would the Vikings have won had they started Mullens? Maybe. Probably not, but going with Hall played into the hands of what had been an extremely exploitable Green Bay defense. Now, the Packers are the team that controls its own destiny, while the Vikings need a road win, plus a series of relatively unlikely events, to have a chance to sneak in as a Wild Card.

Detroit is in an interesting spot, as well, with the No. 2 seed still in play despite last week's loss to the Cowboys. But even with a win, the Lions would need both Dallas and Philly to trip up against the Commanders and Giants, respectively, which is… unlikely. However, Dallas and Philly both play in the late window, so the Lions won't know if their fate is sealed until after their game concludes.

As of mid-week, Dan Campbell appears to be leaning toward playing his regulars (frankly, he doesn't strike me as a man who'd believe in rest), but it's possible Campbell could pull back in the second half if the Lions build a sizable lead. Again, it's possible the Lions would prefer to face the Rams/Packers in Round 1 – although the Eagles may be an equally appealing matchup right now – so anything is on the table.

For now, we'll take Campbell at his word and expect Detroit to push for its first 12-win season since 1991.

The pick: Lions 27 – Vikings 21

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-1.5)

What's on the line:

• Both teams are eliminated from the postseason. New England loss would clinch at least the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Here is a wildly detailed breakdown of how Week 18 could impact the Pats' final landing spot in the 2024 Draft.
• New York is currently slotted at No. 8 in the 2024 NFL Draft order. Jets could climb as high as the No. 5 pick with a loss + wins by NYG, LAC and TEN.

Buckle up, kids. While draft positioning is on the line, this is perhaps our most meaningless game on the slate. With a total of 30.5, Vegas is expecting no shortage of fireworks. In all likelihood, this will be the swan song for both Bailey Zappe and Trevor Siemian, as the Pats will look to the Draft for a franchise quarterback, while the Jets will look forward to the return of Aaron Rodgers in 2024.

It goes without saying that picking this game is a complete crapshoot. Neither team should really want to win – especially New England – but with Bill Belichick's future clouded, it may not be in his best interest to ensure a loss and deliver the chance at a franchise quarterback. That aside, Belichick isn't the type to lay down in a spot like this.

On the other side, Robert Saleh needs every win he can get to convince the Jets he's still The Guy to lead this team going forward. It's difficult to fault Saleh for the cards he's been dealt at quarterback, but few coaches still get the benefit of the doubt after winning 34% of their games over three years.

I want to be very clear: I have no idea how this game will play out, and I will not be betting it. But as we know by now, it is my professional duty to make a pick. Give me the Jets to win outright. Robert Kraft may glue himself to the field before he allows the Pats to win this game.

The pick: Jets 13 – Patriots 10

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3.0)

What's on the line:

• New Orleans clinches the NFC South with a win + Tampa Bay loss. Saints clinch a playoff berth with a win + Seattle loss + Green Bay loss
• Atlanta clinches the NFC South with a win + Tampa Bay loss

Somehow, someway, the Atlanta Falcons can not only make the postseason but can clinch the division in Week 18. Such is life in the NFC South, I suppose. The Falcons have fallen flat in three of the last four weeks, which has included losses to Tampa Bay and Chicago, as well as a catastrophic, 9-7 loss to the Panthers in Week 15. 

While a Bucs loss to Carolina this week may be relatively unlikely, it's by no means out of the question, so both teams should at least begin this game playing as hard as possible. If Tampa were to build a big lead, it's possible Atlanta could pull back, but regardless of the Bucs-Panthers result, the Saints would still be alive with a victory heading into the late window, when both Seattle and Green Bay play.

As has been the case all season, picking NFC South games is a complete minefield. Neither of these teams has proven trustworthy, but the Saints do have the higher week-to-week floor, at least in my mind. With the slight motivational edge, plus home field, plus the possibility that Atlanta has to start Desmond Ridder, we'll roll with the Saints to win and cover.

The pick: Saints 23 – Falcons 17

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (+5.5)

What's on the line:

• Jacksonville clinches the AFC South with a win. Regardless of result against Tennessee, Jaguars clinch a playoff berth with a Pittsburgh loss + Denver loss + IND-HOU non-tie.
• Tennessee is eliminated from postseason contention and currently holds the No. 7 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Here we go. The Jaguars' entire season – as well as my mental health for the next nine months – hinges entirely on Week 18 for the second straight season. And for the second year in a row, it's again the Tennessee Titans who stand between Jacksonville and a playoff berth.

The Jags finally stopped the bleeding last week with a 26-0 win over the Panthers. It was a dominant defensive performance, with Josh Allen perhaps staking his claim to an All-Pro spot, but it's tough to take much away from a game quarterbacked by C.J. Beathard, who, to this credit, did exactly what he was asked.

The hope is that the Jags will get Trevor Lawrence back this week, but a final announcement on his status may not come until the weekend. Meanwhile, the Jags opened the 21-day practice window for Christian Kirk, and there's a chance the wideout could play in Week 18.

Tennessee has quarterback questions of its own after Will Levis was forced out of last week's blowout loss to Houston with a foot injury. The Titans haven't ruled Levis out, but as of mid-week a Ryan Tannehill cameo seems like the most likely scenario.

For the fifth straight week, we're picking a Jags game without important QB context. Lawrence might return, he might not. This would still be a winnable game for Jacksonville with Beathard at quarterback, but it would become a whole lot dicier. Either way, the Jags should be able to lean on their defense to get after Tannehill/Levis – they've combined to take 19 sacks over the last three games – and keep the Titans' offense in check. 

I like Jacksonville to win this game outright regardless of whether it's Lawrence or Beathard. If Lawrence wins, they cover. If it's Beathard, the Titans can keep it close.

The pick: Jaguars 20 – Titans 17 (with Beathard); Jaguars 27 – Titans 17 (with Lawrence)

Sunday Afternoon Games

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)

What's on the line:

• Seattle clinches Wild Card spot with win + Green Bay loss
• Arizona is eliminated from postseason contention and currently holds the No.4 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft

By virtue of slipping up at home against Mason Rudolph last week, the Seahawks no longer control their own destiny and now need a Green Bay loss, on top of a win over Arizona, in order to make the playoffs (we're not getting into all of the "if multiple teams tie" scenarios). With both games happening concurrently, we have to assume the Seahawks will play at full capacity. The Cardinals, meanwhile, could risk moving down the draft board with a win, but clearly that was not a concern last week in Philly.

If we assume the Cardinals play all of their healthy starters, this could certainly be a dangerous spot for the Seahawks. As far as 4-12 teams go, the Cardinals are about as frisky as it gets, and that's been the case for most of the season. All four of Arizona's wins have come over teams that are either in the playoffs (DAL, PHI) or still alive for a berth (ATL, PIT). Playing spoiler to a division rival would be the cherry on top of what's been a frustrating but also encouraging season for one of the NFL's least-talented rosters. 

We're not even going to mess around with the number here. Give me the Cardinals to win outright at home and put Seattle out of its misery regardless of the Packers' result.

The pick: Cardinals 28 – Seahawks 27

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-3.0)

What's on the line:

• Green Bay clinches a Wild Card spot with a win. Packers also clinch with a Vikings loss + Seahawks loss + Buccaneers loss OR Vikings loss + Seahawks loss + Saints loss
• Chicago is eliminated from playoff contention and currently holds the No. 10 and No. 1 (via CAR) picks in the 2024 NFL Draft

Green Bay is yet another team that could technically get in with multiple tie scenarios, but their true path is very simple: win and they're in. You may recall the Packers landing in a similar situation last season and falling flat at home against the Lions in Week 18. 

The Bears are looking for a similar, momentum-building win as they look ahead to 2024 having already locked up the No. 1 pick by way of Carolina. While there's a case to be made that losing would be the best thing for the Bears' own draft pick, I'm not sure there's a single player, coach, front office member or fan in the greater Chicago area who wouldn't trade dropping a draft spot or two for a chance to knock the Packers out of the postseason. 

Green Bay breezed past the Bears in Chicago in Week 1, but this is a much different Bears team that's strung together one of its best stretches of play in several years. Chicago comes into Week 18 having won four of its last five, forcing 14 turnovers in that span and decidedly out-gaining its opponents in all four victories. Justin Fields continues to pick up steam and will use this game as his final audition before the Bears have to make one of the biggest decisions in franchise history.

On the other side, Jordan Love has done all he can to solidify himself as the Packers' quarterback of the future, and a win here would cement that. Love played exceptionally well last week against Minnesota, but this will be easily the toughest, highest-pressure test of his young career.

Quarterbacks aside, the biggest question is whether the Packers' defense can hold up against an offense that's put up 852 yards of combined offense over the last two weeks. Green Bay's D showed up last week in Minneapolis, but the Vikings threw Joe Barry a bone by starting Jaren Hall. This week will present a much, much tougher test.

As much as I want to take Green Bay at home, the Packers' defense has shown us all year that it's one of the least-trustworthy units in the NFL. Give me the Bears to exploit that and pull out a narrow, hard-fought victory. 

The pick: Bears 27 – Packers 26

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)

What's on the line:

• Kansas City is locked into the No. 3 seed in the AFC.
• Los Angeles is eliminated from playoff contention and currently holds the No. 6 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

This is one of only a handful of games with no seeding implications, so we'll make it quick. As expected, the Chiefs will rest Patrick Mahomes, and the same could be true for veterans like Travis Kelce, Chris Jones and L'Jarius Sneed. 

The Chargers have been playing out the string on a lost season for a few weeks now and will ride out one last game with Easton Stick filling in at quarterback. Keep an eye on Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer, who could each be held out of what's ultimately a meaningless game. It also wouldn't be a surprise if both teams limit the strain on their starting running backs.

In what ultimately feels like an anything could happen game, I'll lean on Blaine Gabbert – an ex-Jaguar, keep in mind – to provide the Chiefs with a relatively high floor. I'm not sure they win the game, but we'll take Kansas City to cover the 3.5 on the road.

The pick: Chargers 17 – Chiefs 16

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)

What's on the line:

• Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. Las Vegas currently holds the 11th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, while Denver holds the 14th pick.

This is another meaningless game in the late window, and one that will feature Jarrett Stidham going up against his former team. Stidham looked fairly unremarkable last week against the Chargers but was without two of his top three receivers. As of publication, it's unclear if Denver will get either of Courtland Sutton or Marvin Mims back this week.

On the other side, the Raiders fell short last week against the Colts but continue to play above their talent level on defense since Antonio Pierce took over. Pierce clearly has the locker room's attention and may need to win this game to solidify himself as the favorite to take over as the full-time head coach in 2024. I don't love playing the motivational trope game, but I expect the Raiders to go all-out in hopes of retaining Pierce next season.

The pick: Raiders 21 – Broncos 13

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+5.5)

What's on the line:

• Philadelphia clinches the NFC East with a win + Dallas loss. Eagles have already clinched at least a Wild Card spot and the No. 5 seed in the NFC. 
• New York is eliminated from playoff contention and currently holds the No. 5 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The NFC East crown could be on the line for the Eagles, but more importantly the sanity of Eagles fans is also on the line. Following last week's stunning loss to Arizona, the Eagles have now dropped four of their last five games after jumping out to a 10-1 start. Philly's defense has allowed at least 100 yards rushing in each of the last seven – including 221 yards to Arizona – after holding opponents under 100 yards in eight of its first nine games. 

Facing the Tyrod Taylor-led Giants, who nearly upset the Rams last week, is a dangerous spot for this version of the Eagles, though they did just pile up 465 yards of offense on New York two weeks ago. It's clear at this point that Philly has major issues that could prevent another Super Bowl run, but after last week's wake-up call I like the Eagles to refocus and take care of business heading into the postseason. Scoreboard-watching, should the Dallas game get out of hand, will be a concern in the second half, but the Eagles' primary focus should be on cleaning up its mistakes.

The pick: Eagles 30 – Giants 23

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-4.0)

What's on the line:

• Los Angeles has clinched a Wild Card spot. A Rams win locks them into the 6 seed. A Rams loss + Packers win would make the Rams the 7 seed. 
• San Francisco has locked up the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

This isn't a completely meaningless game, with seeding still on the line for the Rams, but the fact that they'll rest Matthew Stafford – and perhaps some other veterans – is an indication that they don't have a strong preference between facing Dallas, Detroit or Philly in Round 1.

The Niners locked up the No. 1 seed last week with their win over Washington + the Eagles' loss to Arizona. They'll likely limit the workload of several key players this week, including Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey, who've already been ruled out.

When you think about it, a Sam Darnold vs. Carson Wentz showdown really embodies the spirit of a Week 18 game. The NBA version of this would be watching Jahlil Okafor play Marvin Bagley 1-on-1. Two guys who at one point represented the hopes of an entire franchise now getting some late-season cardio in.

With neither team likely to go too hard, we'll lean on the 49ers' depth on both sides of the ball, as well as the belief that Darnold is a better option than Carson Wentz.

The pick: 49ers 25 – Rams 20

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders (+13.0)

What's on the line:

• Dallas has clinched at least a Wild Card spot and can lock up the NFC East with a win OR a Philadelphia loss. A win would also lock Dallas into the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
• Washington is eliminated from postseason contention and currently holds the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The Cowboys have plenty on the line and should do everything they can to win this game, while the Commanders – who desperately need a franchise quarterback – should have zero interest in losing their spot in the top-three.

I like Dallas to do what most expect and jump out to an early lead – the question is whether they call off the dogs at some point and allow the back door to open up for a Washington cover. It's a distinct possibility, but we'll side with the Cowboys to keep their foot on the gas just long enough to win by two scores and comfortably lock up the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

The pick: Cowboys 33 – 17

Sunday Night Football

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+3.0)

What's on the line:

• Both teams clinch the AFC East, and the 2 seed in the AFC, with a win.
• Miami has already clinched at least a Wild Card spot.
• Buffalo clinches a Wild Card spot with a tie. Regardless of the result against Miami, the Bills would clinch a playoff berth with a Pittsburgh loss (or tie) OR Jacksonville loss (or tie) OR Texans-Colts tie.

No matter what, this game will decide the winner of the AFC East, but the Bills could already have a playoff spot locked up by kickoff depending on the results of Steelers-Ravens, Jaguars-Titans and/or Texans-Colts. If the Steelers and Jags win, and Texans-Colts doesn't end in a tie, then it becomes a win-or-go-home scenario for Buffalo.

The Bills will head to Miami as 3.0-point favorites, a sharp turn from this past Sunday when the line sat at Dolphins -1.5. Certainly, the Bills could have a motivational edge – especially if they need to win this game – but they'll also be healthier than the Dolphins, who are dealing with injuries to De'Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in addition to losing both of their starting edge rushers, as well as Xavien Howard, who's "unlikely" to play in Week 18.

All of those injuries, plus a demoralizing loss to Baltimore last week, make this a tough spot for Miami. I'm not fully convinced that the Bills are back to Super-Bowl-contending form, but I like them to avoid a letdown here and somehow finish this extremely strange regular season as the 2-seed in the AFC.

The pick: Bills 27 – Dolphins 23