Beating the Book: Giants Handle Lions, 49ers Roll in Mexico City + Full Week 11 ATS Picks and Predictions

I'll say it: Week 10 was not a great week for us here at Beating the Book – no two ways about it. It was the type of week that makes you question everything. Going in, I felt like we had a good gameplan, a solid week of practice, and the guys competed their tails off. We just didn't make enough plays to get the job done.

Despite a horrific, 5-9 ATS week, we're still holding steady at .500 for the season. It's not where we want to be – this column isn't called Tying the Book, after all – but there's still plenty of football to be played. In terms of best bets, I'm not sure where we go from here. We rode the Pats to a much-needed win in Week 9, but the Cowboys blowing a 14-point second-half lead to Green Bay was a major gut punch.

As has been the theme all season, Week 10 was another big one for underdogs, who are covering at a 58 percent clip (!!) this season:

After firing our offensive coordinator and promoting a young, hotshot assistant to call plays, it's time to refocus and get back on track in Week 11. I can already feel this is going to be one of those weeks where I kiss the fiancé goodbye and sleep on a couch at the facility. With four more teams on bye, we're presented with another 14-game slate that kicks off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Titans and Packers at Lambeau Field.

As of Wednesday, only one of those games (Panthers-Ravens) features a double-digit spread, though four more teams are currently favored by at least a touchdown. Three of those four teams – Philadelphia, Kansas City and San Francisco – are road favorites, while Buffalo (-8.0 vs. CLE) continues to get respect from the oddsmakers, despite two consecutive letdowns.

Before we dig in on Week 11, let's take our customary look back at the best and worst calls from my Week 10 picks.

Last week: 5-9 ATS; 7-7 straight up; best bet lost (Cowboys -5.0 at Packers)

On the season: 73-73-4 ATS; 94-55-1 straight up; 3-7 best bets

Best calls of Week 10: 

• This line has moved a full 2.0 points in favor of Houston, so that does give me some pause. But coming out of the bye, I like the Giants to cover and win their seventh one-score game of the season.
• The Rams are a sinking ship with seemingly no way out. Give me the Cardinals to pull the minor upset on the road.

Worst calls of Week 10:

• I don't think they do it in overly convincing fashion, but I'll take Las Vegas to win by a touchdown and get the narrow cover.
• I'm well aware that we've been burned in this situation before – most recently by the Bills – but I like Philadelphia to bounce back from a semi-lackluster showing in Houston and win this game by two scores.

NFL Week 11 Picks: Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. My best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

All odds this week via BetMGM, as of Wednesday at Noon ET. If you don't have a BetMGM account yet, you can use the BetMGM promo code for a generous welcome bonus.

Thursday Night Football

Tennessee Titans (+3.0) at Green Bay Packers

Following an overtime loss to Kansas City in Week 9, the Titans got back to what they do best last week: suffocate opponents on defense and do just enough on offense to win a close game. In an interesting twist, Tennessee wasn't really able to run the ball on Denver's defense (63 total rushing yards), but Ryan Tannehill erupted for two (2) touchdown passes in his return from an ankle injury.

Although Tennessee is yet to score more than 24 points in a game this season – they've scored exactly 17 in three straight – the Titans sit at 6-3 with a commanding lead in the AFC South. We can't completely throw out a 41-7 shellacking at the hands of the Bills in Week 2, but their other two losses have come by a combined four points.

With the Packers seemingly finding some answers on offense against Dallas last week, this is suddenly an incredibly interesting game. Aaron Rodgers tossed three touchdowns to Christian Watson, and Green Bay ran all over one of the best units in the league. Comparatively, the Titans have a worse pass defense than Dallas, though Tennessee is a top-five team against the rush.

While Green Bay is the more talented side, I'm not fully convinced that the Packers, who are still incredibly banged up, are suddenly back because they pulled out a win in a do-or-die game at home. Tennessee has been the more bankable team this season, and I think their style will travel well to Lambeau on a cold night. 

The Packers finally gained some momentum last week and could absolutely keep it rolling, but the value is on the Titans here in what feels like an overcorrection from last week's inflated Dallas line. I'll roll the dice with the Packers to win, but Tennessee covers a close game.

The pick: Packers 21 – Titans 20

Sunday Early Games

Chicago Bears (+3.0) at Atlanta Falcons

This is the first of several Spiderman Meme games in Week 11. Both teams are coming off of crushing losses in Week 10, but I feel worse about the Falcons. Over the course of two matchups in three weeks against Carolina, the Falcons surrendered over 400 rushing yards to one of the NFL's most limited and predictable offenses.

The Panthers' defense has flown under the radar all season, but last week felt like a big step back for Marcus Mariota, who took five sacks, tossed a pick and made several questionable decisions in the second half. For a few weeks, it felt like the Falcons were riding some sort of mysterious wait, can we actually win the NFC South? energy, but with the Bucs (possibly) back on track, that's all but evaporated. 

Meanwhile, the Bears have lost three in a row and six out of seven, so they don't exactly come in on a heater either. But despite the skid, there's a palpable sense of optimism around this team – and particularly Justin Fields. With another monster effort against Detroit, Fields now has 555 rushing yards and 14 total touchdowns over the last five games. 

As dangerous as Fields has become, he's still prone to killer mistakes. For instance, a horrendously ill-advised pick-six that helped the Lions erase a two-score deficit.

With that in mind, and the Bears' defense getting worse by the week, I think Chicago finds itself in another high-scoring, back-and-forth game. Unsurprisingly, this game currently holds the highest total of the week (50.0).

It almost goes without saying that neither of these defenses can be trusted in the slightest. Atlanta is down to 31st in EPA – ahead of only Detroit – while Chicago ranks 27th. The Falcons are also dead-last in pressure rate and have allowed the most total yards of any defense this season.

Points and yards should be widely available, so this game comes down to quarterback play. Right now, I have much more faith in Fields than Mariota. Give me the Bears to win outright at the TJ Duckett Dome in a homecoming game for Fields.

The pick: Bears 30 – Falcons 26

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Carolina Panthers (+11.0) at Baltimore Ravens

The Panthers have been a difficult team to pin down since PJ Walker took over. Over the last four weeks, they've beaten the Bucs outright as 13.0-point dogs, lost in overtime to Atlanta on a questionable penalty, trailed 35-0 at halftime in Cincinnati, and then avenged that lost to the Falcons.

While there's little evidence to suggest the Panthers are truly a good team, they've been a significantly friskier team with Walker under center. The issue is that Walker will not, in fact, be the starting quarterback this week after suffering a high-ankle sprain on Thursday Night. That means Carolina is pivoting back to Baker Mayfield and his league-low (by a mile) 17.6 QBR this season. To Mayfield's credit, he did look decent when he came on in relief of Walker in the Cincinnati game, but that was a zero-pressure situation against a defense that had already finished its work for the day.

Baltimore comes into this game running hot after back-to-back wins over Cleveland and Tampa Bay, despite missing several key pieces. Early indications are that Mark Andrews will likely return in Week 11, which is extremely bad news for the Panthers' 24th-ranked pass defense.

Betting double-digit spreads has been an adventure this season – underdogs are 9-4 ATS – but it's tough to shy away from the Ravens in this spot. Baltimore is 3-1 ATS in its last four games as a double-digit home favorite.

I'll take the Ravens to win and cover with relative ease.

The pick: Ravens 27 – Panthers 13

Cleveland Browns (+8.0) at Buffalo Bills

Coming off of major letdowns in back-to-back weeks, I'm starting to truly question the Bills for the first time this season. When they're rolling, they're still the best team in the league, but Josh Allen's decision-making has almost single-handedly cost Buffalo the last two games (as well as the cover against Green Bay, not that I'm holding a grudge or anything). Suddenly, Allen has fallen back in the MVP race and leads the league with 10 interceptions – four of which have come in the red zone in the last two weeks alone.

Red zone issues aside, the good news for Allen is he seems to have escaped any sort of real injury. His right elbow was a major concern going into Week 10, but Allen did not appear bothered in the slightest. After the game, Sean McDermott confirmed that Allen was not facing any limitations. 

With a healthy Allen, and a team desperate to bounce back from three straight lackluster performances, the Bills should be in a good spot here. Early on, Cleveland looked like a dangerous team, but the Browns have suddenly strung together five losses in six games. Though the Browns did blow the doors off of the Bengals in Week 8, they came out of their Week 9 bye with a complete dud in Miami on Sunday.

More than anything, the weather in Buffalo could end up shaping the flow of this game. With the potential for massive snowfall and whiteout conditions, we could be looking at a redux of the infamous 2007 Snow Bowl between these two teams.

Cleveland is more than comfortable keeping the ball on the ground, and while Buffalo has a huge advantage at quarterback and is capable of doing the same, the conditions could limit the impact of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.

If the forecast holds – as an unbiased fan of football games played in adverse conditions, I'm praying it does -- give me the Browns to cover the 8.0 points in a low-scoring game. I'd also hit the under on that 43.5 total, which could certainly plummet as Sunday approaches.

The pick: Bills 20 – Browns 13

Washington Commanders (-3.0) at Houston Texans

Ultimately, I don't know that these teams are separated by all that much, but the Commanders made a serious statement Monday night, controlling the clock and forcing some huge turnovers to put an end to the Eagles' dreams of a perfect season. Washington has now won four of its last five and seems to be picking up steam behind Taylor Heinicke. 

Carson Wentz is eligible to return this week, but even if he's healthy, it's tough to imagine Washington going away from Heinicke after a signature win on the road. Either way, I don't expect the Commanders to run away with this game. Their wins over Chicago, Green Bay and Indy came by a combined eight points, while Monday night's upset was heavily influenced by two massive fumbles by Philadelphia. Washington also tacked on a last-second touchdown on a desperation lateral play by the Eagles.

I'll take the Commanders to get the job done on the road, but it won't be easy. Houston is 4-4-1 ATS on the year, though all four covers came in games in which the Texans were at least touchdown dogs.

The pick: Commanders 21 – Texans 17

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Around this exact time last week, the Colts were the laughing stock of the league, but the tune has changed in Indy following a Week 10 win over the Raiders. Going back to Matt Ryan – particularly against that Raiders defense – looks like a genius move by Jeff Saturday in retrospect. And speaking of geniuses, Jim Irsay took a well-deserved victory lap following Sunday's win:

At this stage, we have to consider the possibility that Saturday is the greatest coach in NFL history. He's literally never lost a game. The numbers say he's unbeatable.

Focusing on this matchup against Philly, there's been significant line movement in the last few days. The number was up to Eagles -10.5 before the Colts pulled off their win in Vegas and the Eagles fumbled their way to a loss against Washington. It sat at 7.5 as of Tuesday morning but has now shifted another full point in favor of the Colts – perhaps in light of the news that Dallas Goedert will miss multiple weeks with a shoulder injury. 

Despite the slip-up against Washington, I do lean toward Philly with this line sitting at 6.5. While the defense had its first letdown of the season, the Eagles played well enough to win, had it not been for a couple of flukey turnovers and some massively favorable calls that went the Commanders' way. You could tell postgame that the Eagles were disappointed that the dream of an undefeated season is dashed, but I don't think this is the kind of team that will stumble after a tough loss. 

We also have to take into account the elephant in the room: the post-Raiders bump. At this point, we know without a doubt that Vegas is a terrible team. But these last few weeks we've been collectively suckered into artificially boosting teams coming off of a win over the Raiders. The Saints have no-showed back-to-back weeks following their 24-0 decimation of Vegas, while the Jags – who beat the Raiders in Week 9 – became the first team all season to lose a game in which they were plus-3 or better on the turnover margin. 

This is all a long-winded way of saying that, while Indy feels like it may have figured something out last week, that's just what teams do when they play the Raiders. I'm not buying it. 

The Colts can hang in this game at home, but I'll take the Eagles to regroup and cover on the road.

The pick: Eagles 28 – Colts 21

New York Jets (+3.0) at New England Patriots

These teams squared off in Week 8 and things went about as expected for Zach Wilson against Bill Belichick and the Pats' defense. At the time, New England was coming off of a blowout loss to the Bears, while the Jets were riding a four-game winning streak. Since then, the Pats tacked on a dominant, 26-3 win over Indianapolis while the Jets pulled off a 20-17 upset over the Bills in Buffalo.

With both teams coming off of a bye, there's no significant advantage here other than Wilson having an extra week to practice running 15 yards behind the line of scrimmage to attempt to avoid a sack. Frankly, it's hard not to envision a similar script playing out for New York – especially with this rematch taking place in Foxborough. New England has won 13 in a row over the Jets straight up, going 9-4 ATS in that span. 

As was the case a few weeks ago, I like the Jets to hang around, but I'm not picking against Belichick with 13 days to prepare.

The pick: Patriots 21 – Jets 17

Los Angeles Rams (+4.0) at New Orleans Saints

Goodness gracious. What a matchup. I know the schedule is released months before the season begins, but this is one of those games that feels like it's being played while both teams are at their lowest points. Colts-Raiders was in that zone last week. Raiders-Broncos is also in that zone this week. Basically, any Raiders game has at least a 50 percent chance of meeting the criteria.

Anyway, the Rams are down bad right now. Really, really bad. They've dropped four of five after falling to the Cardinals at home last week. Matthew Stafford remains in concussion protocol. And worst of all, Cooper Kupp might be done for the season. For the most part, the Rams' defense has held its own, but the offense has been an unmitigated disaster. With no Kupp for at least the next four weeks, there's almost no hope of getting this offense back to any level of respectability.

If there's any hope for the Rams this week, it's that they're catching an equally down-bad team in the Saints. New Orleans has also dropped four of its last five, with the only win in that stretch coming against the Division III Las Vegas Raiders. Since blanking the Raiders 24-0 in Week 8, the Saints have no-showed back-to-back games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Few opponents are more appealing than the Rams right now, so if ever there was an opportunity for the Saints to vault themselves back into the NFC South race, this is it. The Rams' defense is probably the best individual unit in this matchup, so I'll put some trust in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey to make this a game on the road.

Give me the Rams to cover but the Saints to win on a last-second field goal in what's universally recognized as the ugliest/saddest game of the week (I'll say it: even sadder than Raiders-Broncos).

The pick: Saints 20 – Rams 17

Detroit Lions (+3.0) at New York Giants

As readers of this column are well aware, I've been hesitant to buy in on the Giants all season. But save for a hiccup against the Seahawks before the bye, all this team does is bleed out opponents and win close games. They're essentially the same team as the Titans, so it almost makes too much sense that they played a one-point game in Week 1.

While I may still have some reservations about the Giants, they've been the far steadier team compared to Detroit. But the Lions have risen from the ashes the last two weeks, pulling out highly improbable victories over the Packers and Bears. Last Sunday, Detroit trailed by 14 in the fourth quarter before scoring two touchdowns in 68 seconds to storm back into the game. 

The Lions' offense still doesn't look as potent as it did early in the season, but Amon-Ra St. Brown is back at full strength and D'Andre Swift is getting healthier. Detroit should be able to move the ball on the Giants, but Daniel Jones and Co. can do the same against the league's worst defense.

The Lions are particularly vulnerable against the run – 32nd in EPA, 31st in yards allowed – so that pushes me in favor of the Giants, who also have a decided coaching edge.

I can't believe we've reached this point, but not only am I taking the Giants to win — I'm locking them up.

The pick: Giants 24 – Lions 20

Sunday Late Games

Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) at Denver Broncos

Well, here we are. The Raiders managed to do the unthinkable and become the first team in NFL history to lose to a coach who's never coached before. In a season defined by a series of disappointments, it truly feels like Las Vegas can't sink any lower.

With that being the case, what better time for the Raiders to head to Denver for a rematch against one of the two teams they've beaten this season. The Broncos are mired in an extended freefall of their own, most recently losing to the Titans despite holding Derrick Henry to just 53 yards on 19 carries. As has been the case all year, Denver's defense remains an elite unit, but it turns out the come-from-behind win over Jacksonville in London did not, in fact, solve any of the Broncos' offensive woes.

This is a big time lesser of two evils game for me, but with this line sitting at 2.5, I find myself siding with Denver relatively comfortably. The Broncos may be a disaster – we're 10 weeks into the season and they're yet to score more than 23 points – but they're not as much of a disaster as the Raiders. Ultimately, the only unit I truly trust in this game is the Denver defense. 

Broncos win and cover at home.

The pick: Broncos 20 – Raiders 17

BONUS CODE

Dallas Cowboys (-1.0) at Minnesota Vikings

This line feels like a heat check by the oddsmakers. It's a classic what do they know that I don't? situation, and I don't like it one bit. This is only the third time in NFL history that a team with an 8-1 (or better) record is a home underdog.

Despite having only one loss, the advanced numbers still peg Minnesota as a less-than-elite team, but at some point they have to get credit for ripping off seven straight one-score wins. Should they have lost in Buffalo last week? Absolutely. Without a doubt. But for a team that historically seems to find itself on the wrong end of games like that, this year's team has an aura of resilience to it.

You're never going to believe this, but I don't have a great read on how this game plays out. Clearly, the oddsmakers view Dallas as the significantly better team, though Minnesota should be able to move the ball on a bottom-10 Cowboys rush defense. If Kirk Cousins can avoid crushing mistakes – he made a couple last week but somehow didn't pay for them – I think Minnesota is the better value here at home.

This is a stay-away for me, but there's no such thing as a stay-away when it comes to Beating the Book. I'll take the Vikings to come through in yet another close game.

The pick: Vikings 28 – Cowboys 26

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Last week, Pittsburgh opened up as a home dog against the Saints, but the market quickly corrected itself and the Steelers cruised to a double-digit win that would've been more convincing had they not missed a pair of field goals. With Damontae Kazee and T.J. Watt back, the Steelers are a completely different defense -- and they could get Minkah Fitzpatrick back this week, as well. 

As was the case to an extreme degree in Week 1, I think the Steelers can give the Ja'Marr Chase-less Bengals some problems. They forced Joe Burrow into five turnovers in that game, but Cincinnati still had multiple chances to steal the victory. While Watt decimating the Bengals' offensive line is seared into my mind, the Bengals' tackles can't possibly be as bad as they were in Week 1, when Burrow was sacked seven times.

Cincy is also wearing its all-white uniforms, so we'll see if that ends up influencing the line at all.

The big question is whether Kenny Pickett can move the ball. For me, the answer is still a resounding eh, probably not. As such, I'll trust the Bengals to win here – partially because Pittsburgh is running it back with Matthew Wright at kicker – but it probably won't be pretty. With that in mind, I like the Steelers to get the cover at home.

The pick: Bengals 23 – Steelers 20

Sunday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

Kansas City opened as a 7.0-point favorite earlier in the week and the number is down slightly to a more-appealing 6.5. Still, I see the Chiefs as slightly overvalued in this spot, even if the Chargers have the least-impactful home field advantage in the NFL. 

We need to wait-and-see on the status of both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but if one or both of Justin Herbert's top targets are available for this game, I love the Chargers getting 6.5 points. Los Angeles' defense held up surprisingly well against the 49ers last week, and while the offense sputtered in the second half, that would change with Allen or Williams back. 

On the other side, the Chiefs could very well be without JuJu Smith-Schuster, as well as Mecole Hardman, who wasn't available last week against the Jags. Ultimately, I don't see KC losing this game, but much like their Week 2 meeting, I think the Chargers can hang in and make this a close game throughout. 

The pick: Chiefs 30 – Chargers 24

🇲🇽 Fútbol de Lunes por la Noche 🇲🇽

San Francisco 49ers (-8.0) at Arizona Cardinals

First off, thank you to Google for the translation. I took four years of high school Spanish and even got some free college credits out of it, but I will freely admit that I never would've translated that correctly.

Anyway, this is a neutral-site game for both teams, so that's part of the reason it feels like the Niners may be getting a slight bump. At some shops, the number is up to 8.5 as of Wednesday, but that will obviously swing based on the status of Kyler Murray. All we know right now is he remains day-to-day with the hamstring injury that kept him out of last week's win over the Rams. 

If the Cardinals are forced to start Colt McCoy again, this of course becomes an extremely advantageous spot for San Francisco. McCoy is a higher-end backup and acquitted himself well in Week 10, but his week-to-week ceiling is pretty low.

San Francisco didn't play a great game against the depleted Chargers last week but still found a way to win by six points despite needing 41 carries to get to just 157 rushing yards as a team. The Cardinals are close to a league-average team against the run, but they've been a bottom-10 defense for most of the season, so I like this as a bounceback spot for the Niners' offense.

If Murray is healthy and the Cards get Hollywood Brown back – a real possibility, per Ian Rapoport – they'll have the pieces to put up some points, but I have far more faith in San Francisco taking care of business.

With Murray's status still up in the air, I'll take the Niners to win and cover in Mexico City.

The pick: 49ers 27 – Cardinals 17

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