Backfield Breakdown: Week 15 Recap & Week 16 Sleepers

We're a day late and two games short (thanks, pandemic) but apart from that it's business as usual here at Backfield Breakdown, with plenty to analyze after the ugliest slate of NFL games in recent memory. Let's get to it, warts and all...

Week 15 Usage Leaderboard

Week 15

Doesn't include Tuesday games (LAR-SEA, PHI-WAS). GL Looks = Targets + Carries inside the 5-yard line

Week 15 Injury Report

Inactives

Damien Harris (hamstring)

D'Andre Swift (shoulder) + Jamaal Williams (reserve/COVID-19)

Elijah Mitchell (knee, concussion) + Trey Sermon (IR - ankle)

J.D. McKissic (concussion)

Carlos Hyde (concussion)

Kareem Hunt (ankle, reserve/COVID-19)

Alexander Mattison (reserve/COVID-19)

Alex Collins (reserve/COVID-19)

Phillip Lindsay (ankle, reserve/COVID-19)

Giovani Bernard (IR - hip/knee)

Derrick Henry (IR - foot)

In-Game Injuries

Leonard Fournette injured his hamstring in the third quarter.

Week 15 Red-Zone Report

Inside the 5-Yard Line

• Chase Edmonds, Jeremy McNichols and Josh Jacobs each got two snaps inside the 5-yard line without seeing a carry or target there.

Red Zone Looks (carries + targets)

Week 16 Waivers & Sleepers

Picking from players rostered in 50% or less of Yahoo Leagues.

Waivers, Pt. 1 —Top Adds & Streamers

1. Ronald Jones - 35%
2. Duke Johnson - 2%
3. Craig Reynolds - 13%
4. Justin Jackson - 6%
5. Dontrell Hilliard - 37%
6. Rex Burkhead - 10%
7. Ameer Abdullah - 8%
8. Jeremy McNichols - 8%
9. Brandon Bolden - 16%
10. Latavius Murray - 26%

Waivers, Pt. 2 — Bench Stashes & Sleepers

1. Samaje Perine - 13%
2. D'Ernest Johnson - 23%
3. Khalil Herbert - 17%
4. Devontae Booker - 23%
5. Mark Ingram - 50%
6. Ke'Shawn Vaughn - 0%
7. Tevin Coleman - 22%
8. Jaret Patterson - 1%
9. Joshua Kelley - 0%
10. Peyton Barber - 1%

Week 16 Drops & Benchings

Drop'em

Nyheim Hines

David Johnson

Zack Moss

J.D. McKissic

Bench'em

Devonta Freeman

Myles Gaskin (be on the look out for news this week)

Chuba Hubbard

Darrel Williams

Week 15 Game-by-Game Breakdowns

Chiefs (34) at Chargers (28)  

• Edwards-Helaire handled his largest snap share since Week 1, including 20 of 24 snaps (83%) between the fourth quarter and overtime.
  • He still finished with only 11 touches for 50 yards, plus a two-point conversion.
• FB Michael Burton had a seven-yard rushing TD  and two catches for 20 yards, after seeing just five carries and one target total over the first 12 games of the season.
  • It was just an aberration, not a real concern for CEH/Williams. Burton has played single-digit snaps in every game this season.
• The 30% snap share for Williams is his smallest since Week 2.

• He managed 82 yards and a TD on 16 touches while playing through an ankle injury, but Ekeler finished with season lows for total snaps (27) and snap share (34%).
  • Apart from the week before when he hurt his ankle mid-game, Ekeler's previous season low for snap share was 58% (Week 1),.
• Ekeler took eight of 12 snaps (67%) in the first quarter but only 19 of 67 (28%) thereafter. In other words, his ankle was definitely an issue.
• Jackson was the No. 2 back and Kelley the No. 3, while rookie Larry Rountree was a healthy scratch.
• Kelley got three straight carries in the red zone early in the fourth quarter, fumbling the last one away inside the 5-yard line.
  • After Kelley's 0-for-2 at the goal line and seemingly disastrous fumble, the Chiefs gave the ball right back with an INT, and after that the Chargers wisely turned back to Ekeler who promptly punched in a two-yard TD.
  • The goal-line looks were Kelley's first two of the year. Ekeler still has 75% of goal-line looks (15 of 20) for Chargers RBs this year.

Patriots (17) at Colts (27) 

• Damien Harris (hamstring) was inactive, leaving Stevenson as the starter and lead runner.
• Stevenson took 71% of snaps in the first half, with six carries and one target while Bolden had two rushes and no targets on 29% of snaps.
  • Stevenson then took 61% of snaps in the third quarter but only 12% in the fourth (three of 26).
• In the fourth quarter, Bolden played 23 of 26 snaps (89%), after only 15 snaps through three quarters (36%)
• Stevenson's other start this year came in the Week 10 blowout of Cleveland, with a 20-100-2 rushing line plus four receptions on 55% snap share.
  • The rookie's stat line was far less impressive the second time without Harris, obviously, but Stevenson did take 67% of snaps and 10 of the 12 RB carries before the fourth quarter.

• Taylor played 51 of 52 snaps, with Hines getting just 10 but scoring a TD (from seven yards out) on one of his two looks.
  • The 98% snap share was a new career high for Taylor, topping 83% and 84% from Weeks 10-11 this season.
• Taylor had 28 carries for 101 yards with no TDs or targets before icing the game with a 69-yard TD.
• Over his past 11 games, Taylor has 19 TDs and eight 100-yard rushing performances.

Cardinals (12) at Lions (30) 

• Edmonds returned from a four-game absence while Conner played through an ankle injury of his own.
• Despite the Cardinals falling behind early, Conner played 61% of snaps through three quarters, with eight carries and one target.
  • Edmonds had 35% through three quarters, with five carries and no targets.
• In the fourth quarter, Edmonds got 45% of snaps, Ward 36% and Conner only 19%, with the Cardinals first in catch-up mode and then in garbage time.
  • Ward didn't take any snaps until the fourth quarter.

• D'Andre Swift (shoulder) missed a third straight game and Jamaal Williams (COVID-19) missed a second.
  • Reynolds filled in as the lead runner for a second straight week, this time getting the start and taking 26 carries for 112 yards on 65% snap share.
• Over the past two games, Reynolds played 56% of snaps and handled 37 of the 52 RB carries (71%).

Jets (24) at Dolphins (31) 

• Carter returned from IR after missing three games with an ankle injury. His snap share was in the pre-injury range, but he accounted for only 40% of the team's RB carries, compared to 64% over the first 11 weeks of the season.
  • Carter could still get back up toward that 60+ percent range. It was his first game back from IR, after all, though I'll also note that Coleman has looked surprisingly spry in recent weeks.
    • This was Coleman's third straight game above 4.0 YPC, though he did miss a game against the Saints in between.

• Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed were activated from reserve/COVID-19 at the end of last week and suited up for Sunday's game, but Gaskin had his role scaled back, while Ahmed didn't play a single snap (even on special teams).
• Johnson was the lead back from the jump, getting nine of 12 snaps and four of five carries in the first quarter.
• Johnson had eight or more snaps and five or more carries in every quarter, though he only saw one target with Gaskin getting a little more playing time on passing downs.
• I'm counting on Gaskin in a couple leagues with best-ball scoring, and am officially nervous. Even if Johnson doesn't stick as the lead runner, there's another possible workload dent coming with Malcolm Brown (quad) seemingly on the verge of returning from IR. It's hard to say exactly how backfield work will be divided over the final three weeks.

Cowboys (21) at Giants (6) 

• Pollard returned from a one-game absence and played through a torn plantar fascia, taking back his pre-injury role while No. 3 back Corey Clement was banished to special teams.
• This was Elliott's fourth straight game in the 62-64 percent snap share range. In those games, he's averaged 12.5 carries and 5.3 targets but only 57.1 total yards and 0.5 TDs.

• Booker got a little more playing time in the fourth quarter, but he was also heavily involved through the first three quarters, with 41% of snaps, eight carries and two targets.
  • Barkley had 64% of snaps, 13 carries and six targets through three quarters.
  • Barkley wasn't benched after this late-Q2 fumble. He took the next snap/carry when New York got the ball back after halftime.
• Booker played at least 40% of snaps in every quarter besides the second, when he got two of nine.
• Barkley has now played less than 60% of snaps in healthy games back-to-back weeks. With the Giants out of contention, every-down usage may be a thing of the past/future, not the present. He's

Titans (13) at Steelers (19) 

• Hilliard got the start and ultimately the most targets, but Foreman led the Titans in carries for a third straight game, taking 22 for 108 yards and adding 2-27-0 on three targets.
• Foreman still hasn't hit 50% snap share in a game, but his rushing lines the past three weeks were 22-108-0, 13-47-1, 19-109-0.
  • Foreman carried the ball on 54 of his 85 snaps over the past three games, plus he added six targets (60 looks on 85 snaps = 70.6%).
• Here's the breakdown from Weeks 14+15 combined (Foreman, Hilliard, McNichols all healthy):

Weeks 14 + 15 TEN RB

• Harris topped 95% snap share for a third straight week, and played every single offensive snap for the second time this season (Week 1).
  • The 18 rushing yards were a season low, and eight receiving yards were his fewest since Week 1.
• Harris only has three games all season with less than 15 PPR points... but all three were total duds (6.7, 5.9, 4.6 points).

Texans (30) at Jaguars (16) 

• Johnson technically got the start, but Burkhead handled the lead role and easily led Houston's backfield in carries, targets and snaps.
• Burkhead hurt hip the week before and at one point last week was considered unlikely to play against Jacksonville. But then he was listed as questionable on the final injury report, and obviously didn't have any limitations in the game.
• Burkhead has taken double-digit carries four of the past five games, averaging 13.0 carries for 35.6 yards and 1.8 receptions for 14.8 yards in that stretch (zero TDs).

• Robinson handled his third-largest snap share of the season, jumping all the way up to 84% after six straight games at 64% or lower.
  • Good Riddance!
  • Robinson put up 18-75-1 rushing and 3-13-0 on six targets, doing his part, but Jacksonville's passing game (led by QB Trevor Lawrence) remained abysmal.
  • Carlos Hyde (concussion) was inactive. That played a role in Robinson's increased playing time; perhaps more so than Urban Meyer's departure (though we can't know for sure, at least not just yet).

Panthers (14) at Bills (31) 

• Hubbard has just 18 carries and one target in two games since Christian McCaffrey was moved to IR, with the Panthers falling behind both times and giving passing-down specialist Abdullah more snaps.
  • Hubbard played 72% of snaps in the first quarter Sunday, but only 41% thereafter. He also got five of his nine looks in the first quarter.
• The Panthers finish their season against the Bucs, Saints and Bucs... not exactly a rosy outlook for ol' Chuba to finish the year.
  • Abdullah, however, could be a decent PPR option (at least for the desperate). He has eight carries and eight targets in two games post-McCaffrey, including the 4-48-1 receiving line in Sunday's loss to Buffalo.

• Singletary set a season high in snap share for the second straight week, hitting 93% after 82% in the Week 14 loss to Tampa Bay.
  • Zack Moss, meanwhile, was a healthy scratch again.
  • Breida has four carries and one target on 14 snaps the past two weeks.
• Singletary was reception-heavy in Week 14 (four carries, six catches) and ground-heavy in Week 15, but the general picture is the same —  he's now Buffalo's favorite back for both pass and run situations (not that there are many "run" situations for Brian Daboll and Josh Allen).

Bengals (15) at Broncos (10) 

• Mixon got 80% of snaps on first/second down, after 76% the week before.
• Perine took seven of eight third-down snaps. He's played 95% of Cincy's third-down snaps the past three games.
  • Maybe next year will be the year Joe Mixon is actually a three-down back? (I know he's having a great fantasy season regardless.)

• Gordon is still getting half or more of the rushing workload, but it now seems the Broncos prefer Williams on passing downs.
  • The past two weeks, Williams has played 44 pass snaps to Gordon's 24, including 65% of the snaps on third down.

Packers (31) at Ravens (30) 

• Jones played 56% of snaps through three quarters, with 10 carries and two targets.
  • Dillon was at 44%, with seven carries and one target.
• In the fourth quarter, Jones played 86% of snaps and took all three carries, though he gained just one yard.
• Dillon got both goal-line carries, punching one in. The rookie has four goal-line looks to Jones' one in two games since Jones returned from the minor knee injury.
  • Jones had a 9-1 advantage over Dillon in goal-line looks at the conclusion of Week 9. Since then, Dillon has a similarly large edge, 10-1, albeit with Jones' knee injury being a big part of that.
  • Jones has three TDs the past two games, despite ceding those goal-line carries to Dillon. Life is good when Aaron Rodgers is on a roll.

• Murray rejoined the picture with 10 looks and 51 yards, after just five total looks over the previous two games combined.
  • Accordingly, Freeman dropped to 56% snap share after 69% and 66% the previous two games, and the seven looks were his fewest since Week 7.
• Freeman got 74% of fourth-quarter snaps with Baltimore trailing, but prior to that it was a near-even split. (Murray did have more Q4 touches, however, 3-1).
  • Murray Q1-3: 50% snaps, six carries, one target
  • Freeman Q1-3: 46% snaps, five carries, one target.

Falcons (13) at 49ers (31) 

• The Niners completely shut down Atlanta's rushing game, with Patterson held to 11-18-0 and Davis at 6-21-0.
• This was Patterson's fourth straight game with double-digit carries, but also his fifth in a row with three or fewer catches for 27 yards or less. He's done very little in the passing game since his 6-126-0 line Week 9 at New Orleans, averaging only 2.0 catches for 13.0 yards on 3.4 targets in five subsequent games.

• The Niners unleashed Wilson in a three-down role, with his snap share jumping from 59% in Week 14 (13-56-0 rushing, 0 targets) all the way to 88% in Week 15.
  • Wilson played 96% of snaps on first/second down, and 58% on third down.
    • Hasty and FB Kyle Juszczyk poached a few passing-down snaps, but not many. Wilson was on the field for 20 of San Francisco's 25 pass snaps, though only three of eight on third down.

Saints (9) at Buccaneers (0) 

• Kamara and Ingram were in a surprisingly even split for most of the night, both playing 58% of snaps in the first half.
  • Kamara did get far more looks in the first half, with six carries and six targets, while Ingram just took five carries.
• In the second half, Kamara played 63% of snaps but added only five carries and no more targets.
  • Ingram took 40% of snaps in the second half, seeing four carries and two targets.

• Fournette played through an ankle injury and took on six carries and six targets in the first half, before hurting his hamstring in the third quarter and missing the rest of the game.
• Vaughn got 58% of snaps over the final 25 minutes sans Fournette, with three carries and two targets (15 pass snaps).
  • Jones played 42%, with five carries and one target (nine pass snaps). He took eight carries for 63 yards in all.
  • Jones figures to be the lead runner with Fournette out a week or two, but Vaughn could see a decent number of targets given that Giovani Bernard (IR) is out as well and RoJo has butterfingers.

Raiders (16) at Browns (14) 

• Kareem Hunt was ruled out due to an ankle injury, and then landed on the COVID-19 list Friday.
• Chubb matched his season-high snap share (66%) from the Week 14 win over Baltimore and also took a season-high 23 carries (he does have four other games with 21 or 22 rush attempts.)
• RB/WR Demetric Felton logged 52% of snaps and caught three of four targets for 16 yards.
  • He played 25 snaps in the slot, four snaps out wide and only one in the backfield, per PFF.
  • It was the most he's played since Week 7 when both Chubb and Hunt were out with injuries.

• In terms of snaps, Jacobs scaled back a little bit, dropping to 64% after 85% and 75% in the previous two games.
  • He finished with 15-52-0 rushing and 3-42-0 receiving on four targets.
• Jacobs didn't match his receiving volume from the previous two games (15 total targets), but he did reach four targets for the seventh game in row.
  • He's needed it, too, averaging only 3.7 YPC for the year.

Vikings (17) at Bears (9) 

• Nwangwu looked explosive with Alexander Mattison (COVID-19) inactive, taking three carries for 33 yards on five offensive snaps.
• The Bears did a great job on Cook, who finished with 28-89-0 rushing and 2-2-0 receiving.
  • I thought Cook didn't look right, but it's hard to blame the shoulder when he ran for 205 yards in his first game back from the injury (Week 14 vs. PIT). Also, he took 28 carries. So, he's probably fine and just didn't have his best night.

• The Vikes held Montgomery to 18-60-0 rushing and 5-23-0 on six targets.
• Herbert saw four targets and no carries, but not because he was the third-down back; Montgomery played 10 of 12 snaps on third downs.