This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Fantasy managers unwilling to spend the high draft capital on a top-3 QB may choose to settle on one from the next group. Three players we'll look at in this ADP battle are Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts.
Joe Burrow
Burrow's 2021 numbers might cause fantasy managers to think he's a middling QB1 option. The reality is that he had a tale of two seasons while recovering from his 2020 ACL injury. The Bengals often limited his pass attempts in the first 12 weeks. In those 11 games, he had 30 or fewer pass attempts six times. In Week 13, however, the Cincinnati offense was placed in the hands of the franchise QB. In the last five games (he didn't play Week 18), Burrow had just one game with fewer than 34 attempts. His late-season production went through the roof. After averaging 258 yards with a 22:12 TD:INT through 11 games, he averaged 355 yards with a 12:2 TD:INT in his last five. Not only would the coaching staff be foolish to not continue featuring Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but the organization set the trio up for even greater success, adding three offensive linemen who are massive upgrades in pass blocking. Imagine Joe Burrow with time to throw? Imagine those WRs having time to run their full routes as opposed to often breaking them off last year. Burrow's in the discussion to be the overall QB1 this year.
Kyler Murray
We love mobile QBs in fantasy football. But how much rushing production can we expect from Murray? In 2020, he was on pace blow past 1,000 rushing yards before a midseason shoulder injury led him to back off on his running. Then last season, he had a career-low 423 yards. Sure, that rushing total wasn't bad, but when so much of his value is tied to rushing — he's yet to throw for 4,000 yards in a season — that's a reason for concern. Also, as last season progressed, opposing defenses started to drop more defenders in coverage. As a result, he passed for no more than one TD and fewer than 264 yards in five of his last six games. Throw in the fact that DeAndre Hopkins will miss the first six games of the year, and the Cardinals will be without a true alpha WR for a good chunk of the season. Sure, Murray is an excellent QB, but there are a lot of trends working against him to be drafted in the top-6 QBs. He'd be more of a value if he was drafted closer to QB8.
Jalen Hurts
Hurts averaged just 210 passing yards per game last season. In his defense, he only had 432 attempts. After Week 7, the Eagles transitioned their offense into a run-first unit that ultimately helped them earn a spot in the NFL playoffs. After throwing at least 34 passes in five of his first seven games, he averaged 23.75 passes in his last eight games. Also, he scored at least 23.7 fantasy points in those first seven games, but he was held to 18.7 or fewer points in five of his last eight games. So what can we reasonably expect as he enters his third season? Adding A.J. Brown to the existing duo of DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert gives Hurts a trio of receivers who can pile up yardage after the catch. And Brown may be the best player in the league in that category. And it would be stunning if Hurts didn't keep running the football. After 784 yards and 10 TDs on the ground, he should continue to excel in that area. Yes, the second half of the 2021 season is cause for concern, but Hurts has an excellent floor, and if the offense improves, he may make us forget about his performance down the stretch last year on his way to a top-5 finish at QB.
The Final Word
Despite being the least mobile of these three QBs, Burrow is not only the best QB, but between his receivers and revamped offensive line, he's the safest player in this group. He also has potential for big upside. I recommend drafting him based on his floor/ceiling combo. However, Hurts could put together a legendary fantasy season, especially if he builds a great connection with Brown while still dominating on the ground. His stretch run last year is his floor, making Hurts a more volatile fantasy option. And as much as I like Murray as a player, there are more negatives than I'd like to see, so I'd pass on him.
