ADP Analysis: Gaskin Tumbles, DJ Stumbles, Latavius Fumbles

This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.

A week ago, Myles Gaskin seemed relatively safe as Miami's lead runner, with any backfield intrigue limited to the backup competition between Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed. Then Saturday happened. Brown got the start and the first four carries in Miami's preseason opener against Chicago, while Gaskin subbed in later and continued taking snaps with the second unit — highly unusual for a supposed starter.

We knew Gaskin might get stuck in a committee, but he was supposed to be 1A, if nothing else. Now we have to worry about the possibility of Brown leading the team in carries Week 1, along with Salvon Ahmed taking playing time on passing downs. (Ahmed scored a 21-yard TD on a wheel route during Saturday's game, and he's been the subject of widespread praise from Miami beat writers for his work as a receiver at camp practices).

Unsurprisingly, Gaskin headlines our ADP fallers this week, though his drop isn't as drastic as one might expect given some of the reactions from a few days ago. Maybe people are still in summer/vacation mode and a week or two away from being fully immersed in camp/preseason/draft chatter? Anyway, drafters seems less panicked than the twitter crowd (but then again, who isn't?).

Still, we're sure to see some reaction to the first week of preseason games if we look at ADP data from the National Fantasy Championships (NFC), comparing Monday through Thursday (Aug. 16-19) to results from the week before (Aug. 9-12). The sample isn't huge — 40 drafts for each four-day window — but it's big enough that we know something is up when we see big differences.

Rising

QB Justin Fields

Last Week: QB17, ADP 139.1

This Week: QB14, ADP 120.4

Fields had 175 total yards (33 rushing) and two TDs in the preseason opener against Miami. He also played seven drives, of which four were three-and-outs. It was impressive for an NFL debut, but not quite as good as the stat line or postgame hype suggest. Plus, much of it came against third-string defenders.

That said, Fields is FAST. In case you had any doubts, his timed 4.44 speed is apparent, even if Ohio State didn't always need it the past two seasons. We're accustomed to QBs who were 1,000-yard rushers in college becoming 400-yard guys in the NFL. But Fields could be the other way around, with pro competition forcing him to use his wheels rather than throwing easy passes to wide-open receivers the way OSU QBs do until they run into an SEC buzzsaw.

All of that's to say that Fields probably should've been going earlier all along. Drafters might be overreacting to the preseason opener and burying Andy Dalton sooner than Matt Nagy is willing to, but Fields will take over eventually, and he's athletic enough to put up mid-range QB1 fantasy numbers even if his passing is subpar and the Bears aren't winning many games. In terms of ADP, the Bears' rookie has moved slightly ahead of fellow freshmen Trevor Lawrence (QB15, 123.3) and Trey Lance (QB16, 126.5).

RB Javonte Williams

Last Week: RB23, ADP 54.7

This Week: RB21, ADP 48.6

With Melvin Gordon held out, Williams got the start in Denver's preseason opener and took five carries for 29 yards. Starting doesn't mean much when Gordon was rested, but it does seem there's a bit more optimism about the Broncos offense overall after Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater lit up the Vikings for a 33-6 victory. Of course, it's the preseason, and they're Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater, so we should still prepare for Denver to have bottom-10 QB play this year... quite possibly bottom five.

On the other hand, few teams have a better defense on paper, and few have more talent at the skill positions on offense. Even so, the Week 1 workload figures to be split between Williams and Gordon, the latter of whom held steady at RB33 this week even as his teammate rose a little (thus the comment about general optimism on Denver). Gordon did drop from ADP 87.5 to 91.4, however, so it's not like he was entirely unaffected.

Falling

QB Deshaun Watson

Last Week: QB26, ADP 197.4

This Week: QB28, ADP 216.0

It's increasingly clear the Texans are preparing to play the season — or at least the first part of it — without Watson. In fact, he seems to be part of the team in name only, observing practice from a distance (if at all) and staying behind in Houston when the team travels for preseason games. Other reports suggests teams are still interested in trading him, but perhaps not until after the legal situation is resolved... which may not happen in 2021. 

While I don't expect him to play at all this year, it's worth a 15th- or 18th-round pick to see if I'm wrong. Watson can always be dropped in a few weeks for one of the other guys you were thinking about drafting at the end.

RB Josh Jacobs

Last Week: RB20, ADP 44.3

This Week: RB23, ADP 50.1

Jacobs has lingered around RB20-23 range ever since the Raiders signed Kenyan Drake, but in terms of overall ADP there's been a steady downward trend — one that accelerated for unknown reasons this past week. Anyway, Jacobs initially had a mid-to-late-third-round ADP after the Drake signing, but now he's often available in the fifth, having run the full gauntlet from overvalued to undervalued.

Even better, the recent ADP slide doesn't have a clear explanation, as Jacobs seems to be healthy and was one of the many starters held out of Vegas' preseason opener. Drake also was rested and is sure to have a Week 1 role, but Jacobs still projects for 15-plus carries and a couple targets per week. I normally draft a WR or Mark Andrews in Round 5, but I can make an exception if Jacobs is still there and my team needs a running back.

RB Myles Gaskin

Last Week: RB25, ADP 57.1

This Week: RB29, ADP 74.4

Gaskin was solid last year. He had 4.1 YPC in a subpar offense that finished 30th in PFF's run-blocking grading, and he caught 41 of his 47 targets in 10 games. He's neither big nor fast for an NFL running back, but neither are Brown and Ahmed. (Ok, Brown is 225 pounds, but slow. And not as powerful as he looks.)

Gaskins is probably still the best back here, but is it by enough that he'll inevitably seize a larger role even if he starts off in a committee? And, do we even know for sure that he's better than former college teammate Ahmed, who produced 4.3 last season? Ahmed did best Gaskin in YPC in their two seasons together at Washington, albeit on smaller workloads. Anyway, both are listed below 200 pounds, so maybe Brown keeps a role all year even if he offers no upside whatsoever for either real life or fantasy.

There are enough questions to push Gaskin out of my Top 75, and possibly out of my Top 100 (give me a few more days before I confirm that). Other drafters have penalized him less, so far, but I assume that's coming soon if his preseason usage remains worrisome.

RB David Johnson

Last Week: RB39, ADP 107.5

This Week: RB44, ADP 127.0

The first week of the preseason was a series of insults for Johnson. First, the Texans chose Mark Ingram over DJ for a veteran's day off in the opener. Then, they used Phillip Lindsay as their starter and lead back, with Johnson coming off the bench for third downs only. It looks like the new coaching staff has buried him, and it's time that we do the same. The 11th round is still five too early.

Other ADP Notes

• Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley have rebounded a bit. We've been tracking their fall from the middle of the first round to the 1/2 turn. But this week, Taylor bounced back to RB6, ADP 9.2, up from last week's RB7, ADP 10.9. Barkley had a much smaller rise (12.4 to 11.9) on NFC, but he's rebounded more on other platforms, including NFC's best-ball platform BB10s.
• Devin Singletary is up to RB43, ADP 123.9. Last week, he was RB46, ADP 129.0. Zack Moss has slipped a little, going from RB35 (98.2) to RB36 (103.8). It's one of those battles where I prefer whichever guy comes cheaper, but it does seem odd for Singletary to be gaining on Moss right now, considering the latter finally seems healthy. Singletary did take eight carries for 42 yards and a TD in the preseason opener, while Moss was held out of action and won't play until the second exhibition.
• Ahmed is still only at RB65, ADP 216.1. Draft him a little earlier than that to be safe; he's a good pick anywhere outside the Top 150.
• Brown has risen from RB68 to RB60, actually leapfrogging Ahmed (previously RB66) in the process. Not interested.
• Latavius Murray dropped from RB44 to RB48 after a Saints beat writer (Larry Holder of The Athletic) revealed he isn't sure the 31-year-old is a roster lock. Murray and Devonta Freeman both lost fumbles in the preseason opener, while 2020 UDFA Tony Jones had a 7-82-1 rushing line. I still think Murray will be the team's No. 2 RB, but Holder is probably right that it's not quite a lock, considering the Saints can save around $3 million if they cut or trade Latavius. Jones or Freeman would be much cheaper, though also likely downgrades, assuming Murray is still something like the player we saw last year.
• Jerry Jeudy's ADP momentum has halted. He was one of our headliners last week after rising to WR32 (ADP 72.4) through the first couple weeks of August, but this past week he was back down to WR35, ADP 80.0. Which seems odd given that there's more optimism on the Broncos, but it makes a little more sense once we look at the positive news for Courtland Sutton (will play this preseason) and KJ Hamler (105 yards, TD in preseason opener). Jeudy and Sutton remain neck to neck, with the latter inching slightly ahead to WR31, ADP 78.3 this week.