This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Most experienced fantasy managers go into their drafts with some type of cheat sheet. But let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players in the same ADP range to help you make your best decision on draft day.
If you've missed the first few articles in the ADP Battles series, you can catch up by visiting my RotoWire page. This week, we'll look at possible draft options that often go near at varying points in the second round, though it's possible a couple of these players will see their stock rise in upcoming weeks.
Nick Chubb
In each of his five years in the league, Chubb has rushed for at least five yards per carry. Unfortunately, he's played in an era where being in a committee was common. The last four years he had to share work with Kareem Hunt, and Chubb hasn't put up numbers many expected. With Hunt no longer on the team, it's possible that Chubb finally sees a full workload.
Upside
The upside for the entire Cleveland offense centers around Deshaun Watson. If his ineffectiveness last year was due to being unable to process the speed of the game after almost two years away, he could regain that and emerge as an
Most experienced fantasy managers go into their drafts with some type of cheat sheet. But let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players in the same ADP range to help you make your best decision on draft day.
If you've missed the first few articles in the ADP Battles series, you can catch up by visiting my RotoWire page. This week, we'll look at possible draft options that often go near at varying points in the second round, though it's possible a couple of these players will see their stock rise in upcoming weeks.
Nick Chubb
In each of his five years in the league, Chubb has rushed for at least five yards per carry. Unfortunately, he's played in an era where being in a committee was common. The last four years he had to share work with Kareem Hunt, and Chubb hasn't put up numbers many expected. With Hunt no longer on the team, it's possible that Chubb finally sees a full workload.
Upside
The upside for the entire Cleveland offense centers around Deshaun Watson. If his ineffectiveness last year was due to being unable to process the speed of the game after almost two years away, he could regain that and emerge as an elite QB. Should that happen and the Browns feature three-WR sets, Chubb could see consistent light boxes for the first time in his career. Throughout his career, Chubb has often faced defenses making him the top priority, yet he's still been dominant. If defenses are forced to change their focus, and Chubb sees more than 330 touches, he could flirt with 2,000 scrimmage yards. He posted a ridiculous 96th-percentile yards after contact last year despite the defensive attention he received. In addition, after catching 27 passes last year while averaging an impressive 8.9 yards per reception the last three years, an increased role in the passing game is possible. His upside could have him finishing as a top-3 RB.
Downside
Last year when Watson was at QB, Chubb didn't score a single touchdown in six games. That came after he scored 13 times in the team's first 11 games. If Watson remains ineffective, defenses will again load up to stop Chubb. Although the Browns had an elite offensive line a few years ago, they are still very good but not dominate. They also lack the talent and depth they used to have at tight end, so the team doesn't have the advantage it once did when using two-TE sets. If the passing offense is a mess, Chubb could finish as a borderline top-10 running back.
The Bottom Line
I am buying into the Browns' offense as a potential juggernaut this season. It doesn't have a noticeable weakness if Watson plays the way he did in Houston. As a result, I'm drafting Chubb anytime after the 10th pick in a draft. For those who don't believe the Browns are going to break out on offense, Chubb's ADP will probably be too rich, as he's being drafted as a top-6 RB.
Davante Adams
Adams is showing no signs of slowing as he enters his age-30 season. He's posted at least 1,500 yards in consecutive seasons while recording at least 1,374 yards in four of the last five years. He also has double-digit TDs in five of the last six seasons. In his first year without Aaron Rodgers, he was targeted a career-high 180 times. He's still in the discussion as the best receiver in the league.
Upside
Although he's far from an elite QB, having Jimmy Garoppolo throwing him the football instead of Brian Hoyer or Aidan O'Connell, Adams should have good enough QB play to continue his torrid career rate of production. The team used him in the slot 43 percent of the time last year, so it should continue to move him wherever it will best benefit the passing attack. Adams will also benefit from the Raiders being projected to have one of the worst defenses in the league. Las Vegas also may not have many leads to protect. As a result, Las Vegas may have to throw the ball often. Last year, the Raiders kept a large number of games close, so Derek Carr averaged just 33 pass attempts in 15 games. Don't be surprised if the pass attempts rise to 35 or 36 per contest. Those factors would be enough to give Adams the volume he needs to compete with players like Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb in terms of fantasy production. Don't be surprised to see Adams finish as a top-3 WR in a best-case scenario.
Downside
Garoppolo hasn't been the picture of health in his career. In the last three seasons, he missed 18 of 50 possible games. When on the field, he benefited from a run-first offense that used heavy personnel. As a result, he rarely saw extra defensive backs on the field. And throw in coach Kyle Shanahan's ability to scheme receivers open quickly and directly into open running space, and Garoppolo may have been a function of the offense. In Las Vegas, coach Josh McDaniels stubbornly used three-receiver sets last year. That led to Derek Carr not getting consistent protection while facing extra defensive backs. This system may be a nightmare for Garoppolo. Of course, Adams has little target competition, so no matter how bad the offense is, his baseline is extremely high. Last year's 100 receptions, 1,516 yards and 14 touchdowns in a rough situation speaks to his ability. However, if Garoppolo either gets hurt or is lost in the offense, Adams could be more of a top-10 than a top-five receiver.
The Bottom Line
Drafting Adams after the first 12 picks are off the board makes sense. There are few scenarios in which a fantasy manager will be disappointed after selecting him. His floor is unreal, which makes him the type of player who generally can't harm a fantasy squad. And the one thing we want to avoid is the early round pick that torpedoes our rosters. Adams is just that.
Tony Pollard
Pollard had an incredible breakout season last year. After posting 1,056 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in 2021, he broke out with 1,378 yards and 12 scores. As a runner, he surpassed the 90th percentile in broken tackles and yards after contact. He was also incredible as a receiver, recording a 79th-percentile yards after the catch rate. With Ezekiel Elliott no longer with the team and the top competition for touches Malik Davis and Ronald Jones, Pollard is deservedly being selected as a top-7 RB in average drafts.
Upside
Pollard did his damage last year on 193 rushing attempts and 39 receptions. He was on the short side of a committee with Elliott, who had 248 touches despite being a declining player. At 26 with minimal usage in the first four years of his career, Pollard projects to be solidly in his prime while still having fresh legs. Also, Dallas has an excellent QB in Dak Prescott along with strong receiving weapons in CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks. As a result, opponents may not be willing to sell out to stop the run. In terms of the offensive line, the team no longer has an elite unit, but it is still one of the better units in the league. Between an increase in usage and proven explosive ability, if Pollard reached 20 touches per game, that would get him more than 300 on the season. If opportunity and ability intersect well, Pollard could move be top 5 at the position.
Downside
When looking at Pollard's weight, which is listed at 209, that sounds like he's sturdy enough to handle a bigger workload. However, he's 6-foot, so his BMI isn't ideal for a featured back. There are plenty of examples when a player of Pollard's size thrives. But if the wear and tear chips away at his explosiveness, that could limit the best parts of his game. And that may not be apparent until the second half of the season or possibly in the fantasy playoffs. Another potential concern is that the Cowboys sign a free agent to take on some of the early down work with the hope that Pollard will be at full speed should the team be set up to make a run at the Super Bowl. Either of these scenarios could result in Pollard being more of a top-12 than a top-8 RB. At his draft cost, that wouldn't be a big loss, but he wouldn't be the league winner that fantasy managers were hoping for.
The Bottom Line
Especially with Pollard playing on the franchise tag, he is likely eyeing this year as his chance to earn a big contract after the season. His situation is excellent, and we know that coach Mike McCarthy loves the running game. Even if the team brings in someone to take carries away, Pollard should still get enough work to at least match last year's production. There's no reason to shy away from drafting Pollard in the middle of the second round.
The Final Word
If all three of these players are on the board when I draft, I plan to be heavily invested in Chubb. I believe the Browns offense will be special, and he is going to put up an incredible season. However, if I prefer to take the values at RB that present themselves later in most drafts, I would be excited to select Adams and build a strong WR group. This year, the top WRs are coming off the board quickly. That makes Pollard my third choice, but if picking in the middle of the second round, there is no concrete reason to avoid Pollard.
