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Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
A 49ers team in the unfamiliar position of a .500 record this late in the season heads into a cold and unfriendly Lambeau Field to face off with a talented Packers team. And they will do so without their starting quarterback and their best pass rusher.
Read on as we break down odds and best bets.
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: 49ers +200 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Packers -240 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Point spread: 49ers +5.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Packers -5.5 (bet365 Sportsbook)
Totals: Under 44.5 points (BetMGM Sportsbook)/ Over 44 points (BetRivers Sportsbook)
The spread and total have both seen some big late-week shifts, which makes perfect sense considering San Francisco ruled out Brock Purdy (shoulder) and Nick Bosa (hip/oblique) on Friday.
The Packers were relatively modest 2.0-point favorites before Week 11 action unfolded, and that figure had actually flipped to +1 for a brief time last Sunday. However, it bounced back up to -2.5 early in the week following San Fran's loss to the Seahawks, and it grew further late in the week before Friday's announcements sent it all the way to -5.5.
The total has unsurprisingly plummeted with Brandon Allen now set to helm the Niners offense. The number had posted at a robust 48.5 before Week 11 action, and was still at 48 early in the week. However, a steady descent began Thursday once Purdy missed practice and the plummeting picked up speed Friday, leaving the number as low as 44 going into the weekend.
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers Betting Picks
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The Packers are a team that will typically take its time, especially at home. They look to win close games with an offense that's heavily predicated on balance and rarely requires Jordan Love to throw more than 30-32 times a game, unless game script requires a different approach. In a Week 11 win over the Bears, we saw that philosophy applied to an extreme with Love throwing a season-low 17 times.
With Allen, a journeyman who's thrown all of three regular-season passes since the start of the 2022 season, now at the helm of the 49ers' offense, this would-be showdown between two talented NFC squads could well unfold exactly to the Packers' preferred method of play. Despite the talent around him, Allen is unlikely to orchestrate many successful, full-length drives given his inexperience and the talent of a Packers defense that surrenders just 294.6 total yards per home game.
The expected upper 30s/low 40s weather further encourages a relatively conservative approach from Green Bay. They should once again feature Josh Jacobs heavily in their plans. The talented offseason addition averages a robust 4.8 yards per carry after generating a career-low 3.5 per tote in his final Raiders season in 2023, and he's posted six runs of 20+ yards, the second-highest figure of his career.
The Niners play above average against the run, but will miss Bosa. He's more known for his pass-rushing prowess, but he has contributed 36 tackles across 10 games as well. Jacobs has recorded at least 73 rushing yards in five of his last six games, and he should once again see more than enough opportunities to clear 70 yards.
I'll ultimately play it safe by lowering Green Bay's projected advantage a full four points and combining that with a 70+ rushing-yard day for Jacobs to put together a same-game parlay at plus money as a primary bet. The Under is also a very viable secondary bet considering the reduced firepower of the Niners and the cold weather.
49ers at Packers Best Bets
- SGP: Packers Alt. Spread -1.5 and Josh Jacobs 70+ rush yards (+103 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Under 45 points (-105 on Fliff Sportsbook)
49ers @ Packers Prediction
Packers 23, 49ers 17
It's best not to overthink things at this point in the season, with teams relatively entrenched in their respective schemes and firm in their identities. The Packers are simply the healthier team here, and when combined with their formidable home field advantage, should control this game. The will rely heavily on their best players in Love and Jacobs to record a relatively comfortable and lower-scoring win.
