This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Music City Bowl Picks: Iowa vs. Missouri
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Bowl mania continues Monday night in Nashville with the Music City Bowl, where the Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) and Missouri Tigers (9-3) will square off in a Big 10 vs. SEC matchup. Like many teams in the postseason, Iowa and Missouri have some key opt-outs and portal absences to contend with, but both rosters have adequate depth to account for the gaps.
Iowa vs. Missouri Betting Odds for Music City Bowl
Spread: Missouri -2.5 (-105 Caesars Sportsbook), Iowa +2.5 (-106) (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 40 (DraftKings Sportsbook) Under 40.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Missouri -135 (ESPN Bet), Iowa +120 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The ML and spread haven't moved much throughout the week, but the total has seen a three-point fall since the bet opened. The Hawkeyes are typically darlings of the Under bet, and while key absences will hamper Iowa's potency, they get Brendan Sullivan back at quarterback.
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Iowa vs. Missouri Betting Picks for Music City Bowl
Before making any determination about this game, it's important to identify who will be missing on both sides of the ball. Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson will be out after declaring for the NFL Draft, and while his monstrous production will be missed, the Hawkeyes have two reliable backups, Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson, who both played well when given opportunities. QB Cade McNamara is headed for the portal, but Iowa will get Brendan Sullivan back after a two-game injury absence.
For Missouri, wideout Luther Burden is the only key offensive absence. The talented junior is opting out to prepare for the NFL combine, but all is not lost in the Tigers' wideout room. Theo Wease has more receiving yardage than Burden this season, and the senior is expected to play and provide a critical target for Brady Cook. The Tigers have the edge at quarterback in Cook, who threw for 2,248 yards and nine touchdowns with only two picks. He also scored five touchdowns on the ground and is dangerous with his feet in the red zone.
Solid defense and turnover limitation will be key for both teams, and my first instinct was to explore the total with his bet. I changed my thinking after diving deeper into both offenses, however. The Tigers averaged almost 30 points per game this season, and Iowa's defense has been surprisingly forgiving to a solid run game, which Missouri has in spades with the thunder-and-lightning duo of Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll. Conversely, the Tigers' defense ranks among the nation's best in third-down defense, and Iowa's run-first offense may put the team into some tough spots if they are stuffed on first and second down. Despite Iowa's reputation as a strong defensive team, the numbers show that the teams are evenly matched on that side of the ball. Missouri's offense is more diverse and potent than what Iowa has to offer, which leads me to fade the total and take the Tigers.
Iowa vs. Missouri Expert Pick: Missouri -2.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Iowa vs. Missouri Predictions for Music City Bowl
The Hawkeyes will need to diversify their offense to have a chance in this game due to Missouri's shut-down ability against the run. That task will fall to Sullivan, who doesn't have many options in the wideout room. While Iowa has decent replacements for Johnson on the ground, the Hawkeyes used their standout running back often in the passing game. Moulton and Jefferson totaled only two receptions on the season, so they'll need to transform their pass-catching ability to make up for the absence. If the Tigers can get Noel and Carroll moving early, passing lanes will open up, and Cook's connection to Wease should emerge. DC Phil Parker will have his team prepared to harass Cook, but Iowa's defensive front could wither against the one-two punch out of Mzzou's backfield.