This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
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Chris' Picks
Well, looky there, a winning week! It was a major miracle for me this season, and only my Hurricanes stopped things from being perfect. I'll take it. This week's slate is limited in its appeal, and it's a tough one for me to find confidence in. Here's to hoping last week was a building block and not a one-off. Let's get on a hot streak!
One game I'm omitting here is Boston College (-14) vs. Connecticut. It was my favorite game when lines opened Sunday at (-12.5). I still like it, but don't fully trust the Eagles to really open a can up on the Huskies.
Virginia Tech (-2.5) vs. Syracuse (Thursday)
The Hokies went into last week's bye with fewer injuries than the Orange, and pairing that with Lane Stadium on a Thursday night, I like them to emerge victorious. They've seemingly found something in QB Kyron Drones, so scoring some shouldn't be an issue. The Hokies can't stop the run, and LeQuint Allen is a real concern. But Orange QB Garrett Shrader isn't. He's thrown just four touchdown passes in six games against FBS schools. He won't make enough plays to win on the road.
Florida State (-20.5) at Wake Forest
Wake Forest just isn't a good offensive team, having not scored more than 21 points in any conference game. I'm not sure it matters who plays quarterback, either. Mitch Griffis is reportedly back at practice after missing last week, but he's completing only 58.6 percent of his attempts and has an 11:9 TD:INT ratio. Third-string/elevated to backup Santino Marucci was worse in his debut last week, completing 57.1 percent with a TD and two picks. We saw how Florida State could flip the switch last week, laboring before blowing Duke out. The 'Noles struggled in their first road game at Clemson, and I expect this to be a business trip for them. They'll score early and often.
Over 53.5 Tulane at Rice
The implied final here is 32-21.5 in favor of the Green Wave. And I believe Rice can score more than 21 points. Tulane ranks 118th against the pass, allowing 7.1 ypa, and has allowed 664 yards and five touchdown passes over the last two games. What does Rice do? They throw it all over the yard, averaging 319.9 ypg, 8.7 ypc, and a nice 18:5 TD:INT ratio. Tulane has scored 31+ in four straight, so we shouldn't have to worry about them contributing amply to this total.
Tennessee (-3.5) at Kentucky
This is a tough spot for Tennessee, a second straight road game coming off a tough loss to Alabama, so I understand why many are going to like the Wildcats, coming off a bye. But Tennessee has shown they can win ugly as they did against A&M, and I expect that to be the case here. Both teams have erratic passing games and want to run, but I trust Joe Milton more than Devin Leary to make a few short plays and open up the box for running lanes. I'm expecting a slugfest, so under 51.5 looks far better to me than winning by more than a field goal. But shooters shoot, right? The Wildcats have been undisciplined and make more mistakes, allowing the Vols to cover.
North Carolina (-11) at Georgia Tech
The Tar Heels were seemingly caught reading their press clippings last week. Drake Maye looked human, and the coaching staff seemed to panic, getting away from balance, throwing the ball 48 times while running only 29 while still enjoying success on the ground (4.9 ypc). That changes here as they will pummel the Jackets on the ground. Georgia Tech is allowing 5.3 ypc, 227.7 ypg and a massive 17 rushing scores to date. Omarion Hampton is going to get plenty of touches, and he'll carve right through the Jackets' defense. Mix in some shot plays in the still-capable passing game, and UNC will squash the doubt that arose from last week's shocker.
Last week: 4-1; Season: 16-24
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Greg's Picks
A hot start followed by a cooler left me 2-3 this past week. One great break is immediately followed by a bad one, but that's how this often goes. Hopefully, a good run is on the horizon. Before we get to this week's games, a quick recap.
Ohio State was sluggish to start but pulled away from Penn State for a fairly easy cover. Wake Forest should not have covered, but a mistake by the Pittsburgh QB led to a last-second TD. This is when things turned south. Oregon was in a good position to cover but let up on defense and allowed WSU to score enough points to cover. The over in the South Carolina-Missouri game was tough because the Gamecocks just did not show up on offense. The final game was an affront to the game of football. I should have known better than to take the over on a game that featured Iowa and Minnesota, no matter what the line was.
Under (43.5) Clemson vs North Carolina State
Both of these teams have underperformed to expectations this season, and in each case, the offense is to blame, well, for the most part, anyway. Clemson got off to a bad start this season with a loss at Duke, and the Tigers haven't really recovered. In Clemson's five conference games this season, the offense has averaged just under 20 ppg. North Carolina State has been even worse on offense. Brennan Armstrong was supposed to be the answer, but the Wolfpack have moved onto option two, and while that worked for one game, it didn't in their most recent loss to Duke when they managed just three points. Defense hasn't really been an issue for either team, so I would expect a low-scoring game here.
Michigan State (+7) at Minnesota
I've mentioned a few times this season how it's easier for college kids to recover from a bad loss than handle a big win, and we'll see exactly how that plays out this week as the Spartans got trucked this past week and the Gophers come in off a very dramatic victory at Iowa. MSU's issues have been well-documented this season. It's never easy to lose your coach in dramatic fashion just weeks into the season, but I think the shock of that has worn off now, and it's all just about what's going on between the lines. While the Spartans have a lot of issues, so do the Gophers, and I think we'll see that this week. The Gophers did just enough to win at Iowa this past week, but that doesn't mask the fact that if they can't run the ball, they're in trouble. The Spartans' rush defense has been decent this season, and if they play well this week, they can catch the Gophers off guard and make this a close game.
Nebraska (-2.5) vs Purdue
There is absolutely no flash to this Nebraska team, and the 'Huskers started this season just like they played most of this past season, but they may have turned a corner. They've won two straight in conference, and sure, those wins haven't come against top-tier competition, but you have to start somewhere. Their foe this week isn't exactly a world-beater either, as Purdue has been a mess all season. The problem for the Boilermakers this week is their run defense, which allows over 150 yards per game. Nebraska is one-dimensional, but when it can run the ball, it can win games.
Florida (+14.5) vs. Georgia
A couple of things going into this play. The first is the way the Gators got up for their game against Tennessee earlier this season. Sure, Tennessee is not Georgia, but it's good to see that a team can rise to the occasion, and you can bet that the Gators will be ready for this one; whether that matters or not, we'll have to wait and see. The second reason I like the Gators here is that the Georgia offense will be without Brock Bowers. Georgia has plenty of talent on offense, but the Bulldogs don't have anyone that can fill the shoes of Bowers. The Bulldogs' air attack was humming along prior to Bowers' injury, and I'm not sure they'll be as explosive without him. Georgia's defense is good, but it's not at the level we've seen over the past few seasons, so if they are to cover this number, they'll need to score a lot of points.
Ohio State (-14.5) at Wisconsin
Credit to Wisconsin, the Badgers came back from a two-TD deficit and beat a middling Illinois team this past week. Even more impressive, they did it without their starting QB. Beating a team like Illinois without your starting QB is one thing; beating Ohio State is another. Wisconsin relied heavily on the run this past week, and the Badgers had success for the most part, but that won't be the case this week, as the OSU defense allows just over 100 yards per game on the ground. There is a chance that OSU is still thinking about its big win over Penn State this past week, but the better the team, the more likely it is that the players will be able to handle success. I don't see OSU tripping up in this spot.
Last Week: 2-3-0; Season 17-23-0
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Jeff's Picks
Tennessee and San Diego State let me down, but everything else hit for me, including a Wisconsin pick that came down to the last second. Thankfully, I am converting 52.5 percent of my bets. My goal this year was 60 percent, so we'll need some solid weeks as we enter the final month of the season.
Oklahoma (-9) @ Kansas
It makes little difference to me whether Jason Bean or Jalon Daniels throws the ball for the Jayhawks. Oklahoma's defense outclasses Kansas' offensive front, and that's where the game will be won. Dillon Gabriel will direct the offense against a defense that was torn apart by Texas, and I would argue that the Sooners have a better offensive attack currently. If the spread was -14 or higher, I would give pause, but -10 is too good to pass up.
Louisville (-4) vs. Duke
Riley Leonard's injury is the primary reason why I am backing Jack Plummer and the Cards despite their surprising loss to Pitt. I'm sure they put a lot of work into fixing their mistakes and should be able to take care of a Duke squad that faces uncertainty with their offense. Leonard won't be 100 percent if he plays, and if Louisville can contain Duke's running game, the win should be doable in front of a home crowd. Defense won't be the star here - I just expect Louisville to outplay them on offense.
Oregon (-6.5) @ Utah
The Utes needed a last-second field goal to get past USC last week, and they faced a defense that is nowhere near as good as the Ducks, who are far more disciplined than the Torjans and are basically in full health. Oregon lost a tough one to Washington, and some might see the Huskies' poor showing against Arizona State as a way to downgrade Oregon. That would be a mistake. Bo Nix is still one of the nation's best quarterbacks and plays behind a running back corps that can rotate fresh backs in at will. Utah has a reputation for being stiff against the run, but the Utes have injuries at multiple positions on defense. Even if they can contain Bucky Irving, Nix will find a way to exploit them through the air. The Ducks should be able to win by a touchdown, if not more.
Washington State (-5.5) @ Arizona State
Washington practically handed the Sun Devils last week's game on a platter, so don't give too much credit to Arizona State for their narrow loss to the Huskies. They are still as mediocre as advertised. While Washington State is as confounding as ever, Cameron Ward finally came back to life against Oregon, and he put up over 400 passing yards despite the loss. The Cougars also have Lincoln Victor back at full health, which is a massive boost for their receiving corps. As long as they tamp down any mistakes on offense, the Cougars should be able to keep the ball rolling and outscore the Sun Devils. Take the road favorite.
Over 54 South Alabama vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
I like to include one Over/Under bet each week, and although I liked this spot a lot better when it was 52.5, I'm still going to roll with these two efficient offenses. Louisiana's defense is pretty bad, and the Jaguars can hum behind Carter Bradley's arm and a solid running game in the right scenario. I expect them to win this game, but the Jaguars have defensive problems of their own, especially against the run. Well, that's about all the Ragin' Cajuns do. Newly-minted quarterback Zeon Chriss is a running threat, running back Jacob Kibodi is equally sound, and their offensive line is excellent. One would think that a run-first team would drive down the pace, but Louisiana has averaged 35.4 points per game against fairly solid competition. I think a final score of 35-24 is quite doable here.
Last Week: 3-2
Season: 21-18-1
