This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Army vs. Navy Betting Odds and Best Bets
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Our proud nation awaits the annual Army-Navy showdown Saturday afternoon, this time in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Both sides come in with a 5-6 overall record. Army is 5-6 ATS with the over hitting at the same rate, while Navy is 4-6-1 ATS with the over cashing just four times in their outings. If you're a trend better, there's the angle.
Army vs. Navy Betting Odds
Spread: Army -2.5 (BetMGM)
Total: 28.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Army -142 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Navy +130 (Caesars Sportsbook)
We'll start by looking at the total, which is seeing the biggest movement since open, where it came out at 31.5. We've seen this game played in some pretty frigid and inhospitable conditions, but Saturday looks unseasonably warm in New England, with temperatures expected to be in the 50s and dry. The downward trend speaks heavily to a lack of suggested offense.
The spread is slowly starting to trend upward in favor of the Black Knights, having opened at -2, moved up and down half of a point, before now marching toward a field goal or more. If you're backing Army, you may be starting to miss your window as of Wednesday evening.
Moneyline plays in this contest are a very interesting proposition. It's very clear no points are expected, so it's fair to just pick a side and not worry about a cover. If you're backing Army, there are wide ranges ,so be smart as the juice isn't massive. Playing Navy on the moneyline, we'd be splitting hairs on all plus odds, but why not squeeze out a few pennies?
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Army vs. Navy Betting Picks
This is arguably the hardest game of the year to pick betting sides, as the team's are mirror images of each other. Army ranks 10th in rushing offense, Navy 14th. They rank 131st and 132nd in passing, respectively. Navy would seem to have a massive advantage defensively, as they rank 30th against the run while Army checks in 116th. But the Black Knights were able to limit Air Force's option to 3.9 ypc, so they seem adept at stopping what they know is coming/they do offensively.
The clock-churning nature of the attacks screams under, as do their betting trends throughout the season. But that number is falling dramatically, and it's worth nothing that 10 of the last 13 matchups in this showdown have gone over the 27.5 point mark. That's such a low number, I like going against the popular opinion and playing the over here.
But I find Army to have two distinct advantages; kicker and quarterback. Bryson Daily is the Black Knights leading rusher and passer, while Navy has played four quarterbacks this season, three of whom weren't at full health at the end of their last game. They're searching under center, which isn't a successful recipe this late in the year. Army kicker Quinn Maretzki is perfect on 23 PATs, and 11-for-13 on field goals, while Navy's Nathan Kirkwood and Evan Warren are a combined 7-for-13 on PATs. I like the Black Knights to more confidently take points when available. The Commander-in-Chiefs trophy is still on the table for them, and they've won five of seven in this series after Navy dominated previously. That trend continues, but be sure to shop around and get this under a field goal.
Army vs. Navy Best Bet: Army (-2.5) at BetMGM
Army vs. Navy Predictions
We all know what's coming here. Lots of option running, lots of no gains, a handful of chunk plays, quite a few fourth down attempts and a shot throw on occasion. It's very likely whomever hits two or three of those shot throws emerges, which makes it relatively unpredictable. Navy's run defense is a concern when backing the Black Knights, and they too stuffed Air Force's attack, limiting them to 2.8 ypc. And in all but one of Navy's wins, they've allowed six or fewer points. But Army seems to have righted their ship, winning three straight after dropping five in a row prior. Navy was just taken to the woodshed by SMU, and while Army clearly isn't the same attack, I can't get that beating out of my head. Army's edge at quarterback will be too great for Navy to overcome.
ARMY 20-14.
