This article is part of our CFL Picks series.
We're back to just a three-game CFL slate in Week 18, but with no team yet eliminated from postseason consideration and just two clubs having secured playoff spots, there are a couple of close spreads that I can see the underdog getting the better of.
We'll dive into a case for a pair of potential upsets this weekend while also highlighting one player for which conditions may be ripe for a breakout performance.
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Winnipeg Blue Bombers at 
Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Friday, 10:30 p.m ET
There's often at least one game in every football team's season – irrespective of the level of pro football – where the snowball effect works in their favor. The opposition seems to constantly blow coverages, drop potential interceptions and overrun their gaps to allow chunk plays on the ground. Meanwhile, their offence seems to hit multiple big plays, with bounces and penalties constantly going their way throughout all four quarters.
Those types of games can sometimes simply be the result of a team's overwhelmingly elite talent, but more often than not, they're a one-week outlier that can misrepresent how good a team truly is. In the case of the 9-6 Blue Bombers, which now have a seven-game winning streak, it much more the case of the latter. Winnipeg is undoubtedly a playoff-caliber team, but in their 55-27 shellacking of the Elks in Week 17, Zach Collaros threw for six touchdowns after only tossing as much as three just once this season, while his 432 passing yards came on the heels of a four-game stretch where he'd compiled between 177 and 231.
The Bombers now travel to face a team that's on its own extended run of success, as Hamilton has recorded four consecutive victories to keep itself in the postseason conversation at 6-9. Since dropping a narrow 26-23 decision to these Blue Bombers back in Week 12, Hamilton has knocked off the Argonauts twice, the Redblacks and the Lions. Veteran pivot Bo Levi Mitchell is playing at an MOP level, having thrown for 294 yards or more in five of the last six games and tossing multiple touchdowns in three of those contests.
Hamilton played the Bombers tough in that Week 12 contest, holding a 23-19 lead in the fourth quarter before giving up a TD pass to Kenny Lawler that proved to be the difference. What's more, the Ti-Cats' defence held Collaros to a 50.0 percent completion rate and 177 passing yards while picking him off and sacking him three times apiece. Hamilton's passing attack is more proficient and deeper than ever, as was evident last week when Kiondre Smith and Tim White had strong performances while Shemar Bridges, Steven Dunbar and Brendan O'Leary-Orange were among those who had multiple catches as well.
The Bombers are not massive favorites and they've already clinched a playoff berth. The Tiger-Cats enjoy no such luxury and will be hungry for another victory in front of the home crowd against a team they've already nearly beaten once. Therefore, an upset could well be in the cards for a team with as much talent as the Ti-Cats boast.
Saskatchewan Roughriders at 
Edmonton Elks
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
As just alluded to, the Elks were on the wrong end of a 55-27 score against the Bombers in Week 17. However, much like Hamilton, Edmonton has not been as bad as its 5-10 mark implies, nor as inept as that 28-point loss would suggest.
The Elks have actually been playing much improved ball under interim coach Jarious Jackson, and they've split the season series with the Roughriders thus far. Edmonton fell by a 29-21 score in Week 1 while still under previous head coach Chris Jones, but they handed Saskatchewan a 42-31 defeat at Mosaic Stadium in Week 9 with Jackson at the helm. In that second meeting, the Elks notably shredded the Riders' typically elite run defence by compiling 276 rushing yards at a whopping 9.9 yards per carry.
The Elks have a highly potent ground attack that, when at full strength, boasts Javon Leake, Justin Rankin and Kevin Brown. All three backs have home-run speed and can therefore score from anywhere on the field, and each is a capable receiver as well. The threat they pose is complemented by a receiving corps whose blend of youth and experience has been key to the team's resurgence under Jackson over the second half of the campaign.
The Elks have already proven capable of running a balanced attack against the Riders, something many teams fail to do. The Riders are also a vulnerable defence against the pass (288.9 passing yards per game allowed, including 22 completions of 30+ yards), and the Elks have the weapons to exploit that weakness whether it's McLeod Bethel-Thompson or Tre Ford under center. As such, the possibility of an upset in what could very well turn into a very high-scoring game can't be dismissed.
Week 18 Player To Pop
Brady Oliveira, Blue Bombers: Despite the Tiger-Cats being one of our upset picks this week, there's no question the conditions could well be near ideal for another Oliveira breakout. The versatile veteran will face a Hamilton defense that's allowed 110.1 rushing yards per game at a robust 5.5 yards per carry. Oliveira already rattled off 120 rushing yards on just 18 carries against the Ti-Cats in Winnipeg's narrow Week 12 win, and he's always a threat to complement his ground production with a strong body of work as a receiver that includes seven games with at least four catches thus far in 2024.
