This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Tuesday's college hoops slate is a special one, as we have the Champions Classic tipping off from State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. The four programs that square off in this invitational year after year never seem to skip a beat, and this year is not any different. Here are my predictions for each game.
Kansas 
vs. Michigan State
Kansas entered the season with championship ambitions, and these expectations appear justified so far. The Jayhawks dismantled Howard by 30 points in its season-opener before jumping out to a 20-point lead against North Carolina in their second game. Kansas blew its lead to the Tar Heels but rallied late for a three-point win. The Tar Heels are ranked 16th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, so this was a big win, regardless of how it happened.
The Jayhawks returned several significant players from last year's squad - Hunter Dickinson, KJ Adams, and Dajuan Harris - and then brought in several talented players in Zeke Mayo, AJ Storr, and Rylan Griffen, among others. Add them all up and Kansas has itself a deep and well-rounded team.
Michigan State also sports a 2-0 record entering Tuesday, although, unlike Kansas, the Spartans are still seeking their first meaningful win of the season. Michigan State dominated Monmouth, 81-57, and Niagara, 96-60, last week, giving us little to criticize. The Spartans lost their top three scorers from a season ago, usually a foreboding sign, but in this case, the roster changes might help long term. Last year's squad ultimately underachieved after starting the season ranked fourth in the AP poll.
In comparing the rosters, while both teams are loaded with talent, I couldn't help but notice the balanced nature of the Spartans. Kansas often presents a matchup nightmare for any team that doesn't have length to defend, like what we saw in the first half against North Carolina. Fortunately for the Spartans, Michigan State has several key players listed at 6-11 or taller (i.e., Xavier Booker, Szymon Zapala, and Carson Cooper), so they should have enough physical presence in the paint to hold their own. Generally speaking, Michigan State ranks 39th in the nation in average height, per KenPom, so size is an overall advantage in this case.
KenPom is projecting this game will end with a final score of 78-73, and while the scores aren't always accurate, in this case, I agree. Since the preseason KenPom rankings came out, Kansas has moved down one slot, while Michigan State has moved up one slot. This isn't too surprising, considering both teams are led by coaches who have held their current jobs for decades, with their teams always dancing in March.
All in all, Michigan State appears well-equipped to keep pace with Kansas. The Spartans have only made 25 percent of three-point attempts so far, a number that should come up over time considering they have several shooters who have proven they can make over 36 percent throughout a season. For all these reasons, I'm betting we'll have a close game on our hands. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan State +6
Kentucky 
vs. Duke 
Kentucky pressed the 'hard reset' button after last season and brought in head coach Mark Pope to lead the team. Pope arrives from BYU, where he led the Cougars to two NCAA Tournament appearances in the last four years.
Now at Kentucky, as a former Wildcat himself, Pope has built one of the most experienced and lengthy rosters. The Wildcats rank fifth in the nation in D-1 experience, ninth in bench minutes, and 27th in average height, all stats courtesy of KenPom. As one might expect, these traits have translated to success, with Kentucky scoring 100-plus points in each of its first two games. The wins came against Wright State and Bucknell, not the toughest tests, but points are points all the same. Kentucky ranks 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency but 56th in defense, so the Wildcats will need to improve on that end of the court if they want to make a run in March.
Duke doesn't need much introduction at this point. The Blue Devils are currently sixth in the nation in the AP Poll and third on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, a clear consensus that Duke is a title contender. We'll see if they live up to it.
Like most great teams, the expectations all stem from the roster. Duke doesn't return many players from last year's team that made the Elite Eight, but it does have Tyrese Procter and Caleb Foster back in the fold, two effective contributors on last year's squad. Additionally, by now, most college hoops fans have likely heard of Cooper Flagg, the top-ranked freshman in the country, per 247sports, and potential first-overall NBA draft pick in the spring. It's early, but Flagg is living up to the hype thus far. He's tallied 31 total points, 18 rebounds, 8 assists, and 5 steals through two games, and he's currently ranked sixth in KenPom's Player of the Year standings. Having one five-star freshman is nice, but imagine having four of them. According to 247sports, The Blue Devils have four recruits that were ranked in the top 20 of the nation, giving Duke the top-rated freshman class for 2024.
For good measure, Duke also brought in a couple of transfers that can consistently make shots from long-range. Mason Gillis made 58-of-124 shots (47 percent) from behind the arc at Purdue last season, while Sion James made 42-of-109 shots (39 percent) while at Tulane.
All in all, Duke doesn't appear to have many shortcomings. The Blue Devils have skilled shooters, as I just noted. They have experience, ranking 140th in D-1. And they're big, ranking first in average height. Their flaws, however small, will undoubtedly reveal themselves over time, but right now they look as balanced and skilled as any other team. Duke ranks third in offensive efficiency, and sixth in defensive efficiency, making them a tough team to crack.
When looking at these teams side-by-side, the most glaring difference is on defense. Duke looks elite on that end of the court, while Kentucky doesn't rank quite so highly. Given this noticeable difference, I'm laying the points with the Blue Devils in this one.
Additionally, I'm also taking the under. I prefer the spread first and foremost, but the total for this game is incredibly high. KenPom is projecting a final score of 83-76, so the betting total makes sense, but even still, the number is incredibly high. Duke has played at a slower pace under head coach Jon Scheyer, ranking 253rd and 298th in adjusted tempo in the last two years, so there's a decent chance this game doesn't see as many possessions as projected. I'm betting the Blue Devils will take control of the game in the second half and win along the lines of 82-74.
College Basketball Best Bet: Duke -6 and Under 160.5
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Michigan State +6
- Duke -6
- Kentucky vs. Duke - Under 160.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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