This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Many prominent teams once again line the Tuesday evening college hoops slate. Here are my best bets for some select matchups.
Butler 
at Xavier 
The Bulldogs were looking great through the first two months of the season, jumping out to a 10-2 record, but conference play has since dropped them back to reality. They have lost four of their last five games, although the single win in that span came at Marquette, so they're still capable of playing a great game, it just doesn't happen very often. Either way, Butler's stock has plummeted over the past month, losing seven of their last eight games against the spread.
Xavier, in contrast, is coming off its best game of the season, a 20-point road victory at Providence. The key for the Musketeers is their recent improvement in scoring, recording the fourth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Big East during league play. Xavier has consistently played well on the other end of the court for most of the season, posting the 25th-best defensive efficiency rating in the nation, so it has a legitimate chance of making a run if the scoring pace continues. The Musketeers are as battle-tested as they come, playing the fourth-most difficult schedule among all D1 teams, per KenPom.
Aside from Xavier having much better efficiency numbers than Butler going in both directions, the Musketeers also have a major advantage on the glass. Xavier is among the best teams at securing offensive boards, ranking 54th in offensive rebounding percentage, and it's going against a Butler defense that is extremely vulnerable in that area, ranking 255th in defensive rebounding. The Musketeers have actually improved in this area during conference play, posting the highest offensive rebounding rate in the Big East.
Looking at the bottom line, Xavier is the better and more balanced team, and it's playing at home. Butler has shown it can beat a team like Marquette on any given day, but I'm betting it won't be Tuesday. I'm laying the points and rolling with the Musketeers.,
College Basketball Best Bet: Xavier -5
Iowa State 
at BYU 
Following their triumphant victory over Houston, the Cyclones suffocated Oklahoma State by a score of 66-42 this past Saturday, giving them a pair of outstanding bounce-back performances after dropping the conference opener to Oklahoma. Iowa State is now 13-3 on the season and armed with the second-best defense in the nation, according to KenPom, it seems poised to make a run into March.
BYU, meanwhile, received a rude awakening as it began its first season in the Big 12, losing consecutive games to Cincinnati and Baylor. The Cougars got back in the win column with their trip to Central Florida over the past weekend, winning 63-58, although they'll need to improve if they want to make some noise in their new league. Most notably, BYU's scoring output has dried up since the non-conference season ended. The Cougars still rank 23rd in offensive efficiency, but through three league games, they rank 12th in the Big 12 and have yet to score more than 72 points in a league game.
In projecting how this game will unfold, points will likely come at a premium as we have two elite defensive teams facing off. Both are incredibly stout in the paint, with Iowa State holding opponents under 43 percent on shots inside the arc, the 10th-lowest percentage allowed in the country, and BYU holding Big 12 opponents to 40 percent on two-point shots, the lowest percentage in the conference since league play started.
The Cyclones have held their opponents to under 72 points in their last eight consecutive games. Given this streak, it's no surprise to see that the under has hit in four of their last five games. At the same time, the under has hit in all three of BYU's conference games. For all these various reasons, I'm taking the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 142
Utah State 
at New Mexico 
Utah State is on fire, entering Tuesday with a 15-game winning streak, the nation's longest active win streak. For the whole season, the Aggies have played at a high level on both ends of the court, ranking in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, however, it's the former that's improved in recent games. Since conference play started, Utah State has the highest offensive efficiency rating in the Mountain West, not surprising considering it's making 60 percent of shots inside the arc and 80 percent of free-throw attempts in that span, again league-topping numbers.
New Mexico, on the other hand, doesn't have a winning streak, but it is coming off its best performance of the year, dropping 88 points on San Diego State en route to an 18-point win. All three of the Lobos' losses came on the road this season, where it doesn't score quite as easily, but luckily for them, Tuesday's game will be in Albuquerque. The Lobos have scored at least 77 points in all but one home game this season, with the exception being a 74-point performance against Louisiana Tech in late November.
Stacking these teams against each other, both teams appear well set up to continue their offensive hot streaks. Utah State does most of its damage in the paint, making 58 percent of two-point shots on the season, the 10th-highest percentage in the nation, and New Mexico has been more vulnerable in that area, allowing Mountain West foes to make 53 percent of two-point shots. We have a similar situation on the other end, where the Lobos extensively rely on inside scoring, with shots inside the arc accounting for 58 percent of their total points, the 19th-highest two-point point distribution in the nation. As it turns out, this is the area on defense where Utah State is noticeably weak, allowing opponents to make 52 percent of two-point shots, ranked 236th in the nation.
Based on the strengths and weaknesses of each team, I'm betting we'll have a high-scoring game on Tuesday. New Mexico pushes the pace as hard as any team, ranking 10th in adjusted tempo among all D1 teams, and with Utah State being highly proficient on offense, the Aggies are more than likely happy to oblige in turning the game into a back-and-forth track meet. I'm on the over in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 156.5
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Xavier -5
- Iowa State at BYU - Under 142
- Utah State at New Mexico - Over 156.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
ESPN BET is officially live as of November 2023. Sign up with the ESPN BET promo code ROTO for $250 in bonus bets!
