This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
McKale Memorial Center hosts Friday's marquee college hoops game, where the Duke Blue Devils will travel to face the Arizona Wildcats. Here are my predictions for this game, and a couple of other intriguing matchups on tap.
Utah State 
vs. Iowa State 
From T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, MO.
The Aggies enter Friday with a 4-0 record, a nice start although they haven't been tested yet. Utah State's schedule is ranked 335th in difficulty, per KenPom, so Friday's matchup will be revealing. Either way, Utah State has made the most of its slate and shot up KenPom's overall efficiency chart from No. 71 to No. 49. Utah State scored over 100 points in its first two games and then scored 95 against Montana, giving us a potent offensive team, at the very least.
The Hawkeyes, meanwhile, also remain perfect at 5-0, although they don't have any significant wins either. Iowa ranks 324th in strength of schedule, so Friday's matchup will also tell us a lot about the Hawkeyes. By now, most college hoops fans know the deal with Iowa under head coach Fran McCaffrey. The Hawkeyes are typically among the best-scoring teams in the nation, but they don't play defense. Before this year, Iowa had seven straight seasons finishing in the top 20 of offensive efficiency and outside the top 70 in defensive efficiency, with the latter often near the bottom of the Big Ten. This current squad is right around these same numbers, ranking 30th in offense and 67th on defense through its first five games.
At first glance, these teams are very similar. Both are offensive-oriented and need to improve their defense to stay undefeated. That said, the Aggies have two clear advantages in this matchup. First, they are extremely active on the offensive glass, ranking second in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. This is critical because Iowa hasn't been great in that area, ranking 171st in defensive rebounding percentage and 210th on offense. Second, on a related note, Iowa isn't doing much to slow down opponents inside the paint. The Hawkeyes are allowing opponents to make over 56 percent of two-point attempts, ranking 282nd in the nation. This is welcome news for the Aggies, as they're making 62 percent of shots inside the arc, the 23rd-highest mark. They're also making over 38 percent from three-point range, a team that's capable of scoring from anywhere.
I would normally consider the over for this matchup, but the number is sky-high, as expected, so I prefer taking Utah State instead. The Aggies have a big advantage on the offensive glass and inside the paint, so I like their chances of out-scoring the Hawkeyes.
College Basketball Best Bet: Utah State +2
Mississippi State 
at SMU 
The Bulldogs are coming off a quality victory, defeating Utah, 78-73. The win boosted Mississippi State to 4-0 following a string of dominant performances against teams from the lower level of D-1. The Bulldogs are playing well on both ends of the court, ranking 33rd in offensive efficiency and 29th on defense. The former is welcome news for the program, as the team struggled to score in the first two seasons under head coach Chris Jans. Mississippi State ranked in the top 25 in the nation in defensive efficiency in this same span, so perhaps it would've advanced farther in the NCAA Tournament on both occasions if they had a better offense. This year, they've scored at least 78 points in all four games, and they even topped 95 points on two occasions.
SMU has also won four games, however, it also suffered a loss when it traveled to Butler, 81-70. The Mustangs haven't played any other teams worth noting, so this outcome is a bit concerning. More specifically, SMU has a problem. The Mustangs rank 101st in defensive efficiency, a clear area of weakness, leaving them vulnerable to a good offensive team.
Comparing the defense for each team in this matchup, it's not close. Mississippi State is massively better. The offenses, however, are another story. On paper, they rank closely in efficiency, although a closer look reveals that Mississippi State has an edge in several specific categories. The Bulldogs are better at not turning the ball over, ranking 13th in the nation compared to 102nd for the Mustangs. The Bulldogs are making over 59 percent of two-point shots, whereas the host team is making under 53 percent. The Bulldogs are also taking better shots overall, ranking 61st in effective field goal percentage compared to 81st for their opponent.
Given the fact that one of these teams has a strong defensive reputation, and the other does not, I have to side with the better defensive team. It's possible homecourt sways the game in SMU's favor, but I'm betting the better defensive team will emerge victorious when the clock hits zero. I'm taking the Bulldogs.
College Basketball Best Bet: Mississippi State -1
Duke 
at Arizona
The Blue Devils bounced back in their last outing, beating up Wofford, 86-35. This outcome was important because it followed a disappointing loss to Kentucky in the Champions Classic, 77-72. For what it's worth, Duke was in firm control for much of the evening before tripping at the end. The Blue Devils built a nine-point lead at halftime and KenPom gave them an 80 percent chance of winning with under five minutes remaining. Either way, Duke has a shot at earning a one-seed come March. It ranks fourth in overall efficiency, 10th in offense, and third on defense.
The Wildcats, on the other hand, are coming off a big loss at Wisconsin, 103-88. The loss isn't good, but what's more concerning is the lack of defense. Allowing over 100 points is bad, obviously, but allowing 64 points to Canisius isn't great either. The Golden Griffins rank 313th in offensive efficiency and were recently held to 37 total points against Maryland. Despite this potential weakness, Arizona should still win many games this year as we've come to expect. It ranks 17th in offensive efficiency, so it's still a threat to score anytime it has the ball.
In comparing these teams side-by-side, not much stands out other than the fact that Duke is simply better on both ends of the court. The Blue Devils rank higher in offensive and defensive efficiency, and they're shooting much better than the host team. The Wildcats are making under 28 percent from behind the arc, 303rd in the nation, substantially lower than the Blue Devils' mark of 37 percent, the 72nd-highest. Arizona's lack of offensive range is offset by its strong interior presence, where it ranks in the top two of the nation in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, not only is Duke strong on the glass, ranking in the top 60 of rebounding percentage at both ends, but it's also the tallest team in the nation, per KenPom's average height data.
Overall, Duke is the better defensive team, better shooting team, and it can counter Arizona's strength. It won't be easy, but I like the Blue Devils' odds of earning a hard-fought road win. I'm going with Duke in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Duke +1.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Utah State +2
- Mississippi State -1
- Duke +1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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