This article is part of our FantasyDraft NBA series.
It's a larger-than-usual eight-game Thursday slate tonight, with a host of appealing individual matchups across the board. The Clippers-Rockets, Pelicans-Spurs, Pistons-Nuggets and Cavaliers-Trail Blazers all have postseason implications as well, and there's no shortage of elevated projected point totals overall. With so much to choose from, let's try to narrow the scope and hone in on an attractive option at each price tier:
GUARDS:
James Harden, HOU vs. LAC ($20,000): Harden has already lit up the Clippers for 38.0 points, 7.5 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 2.5 steals across 37.5 minutes in two games this season, and the Rockets currently sport the highest projected point total (118) on the night. Los Angeles has also been increasingly vulnerable to shooting guards as the season has gone on, as they're now allowing the second-most fantasy points (43.1) to the position, including the most (63.8) over the last 10. They're also yielding the most three-pointers (5.0) to twos over the latter span, and 29.7 percent of the total scoring they allow comes from distance as well. Harden has scored at least 50 fantasy points in four of the last five and should once again have a prominent role while attacking the softest spot of the Clippers' defense.
Nicolas Batum, CHA at ATL ($14,100): Batum draws his third consecutive premium matchup, affording him an opportunity to approximate the 59.00 and 51.75 fantasy points he's compiled over the last two contests against the Suns and Pelicans, respectively. Batum has averaged a solid 14.5 points (on 52.6 percent shooting), 9.0 assists, 7.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals across 32.0 minutes in two games against the Hawks this season, and Atlanta comes in allowing the fifth-most fantasy points (42.4) to two-guards on the season, including 48.0 over the last five. Batum has also been blowing most of his season metrics out of the water recently, averaging 18.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.0 block in the last three games, a stretch during which he's draining 48.8 percent of his 14.3 shot attempts per contest, including 50.0 percent of his 3.3 tries from distance. Notably, Atlanta has been increasingly vulnerable to long-distance shooting over that same span, allowing the second-highest percentage of scoring from three-pointers (39.2), a significant boost over the already-robust 31.7 percent they yield on the season.
Kyle Korver, CLE at POR ($7,500): As is typical with an eight-game slate, there's quite a few tournament-only-worthy options in the affordable tier at guard, including the Spurs' quartet of Patty Mills ($8,300), Danny Green ($8,200), Tony Parker ($7,600) and Derrick White ($6,400), along with the likes of Ben McLemore ($10,000) and J.J. Redick ($9,600) for those with more cash to spend. Meanwhile, Korver is likely to draw another start at two-guard Thursday, given his 30.00 fantasy-point tally against the Suns in his Tuesday spot start. He'd also produced 20.50 fantasy points against the Lakers in the prior contest over 28 minutes, and over 20 fantasy points in two other contests in the last five. Although his matchup against the Blazers isn't nearly as soft as his last two, the Cleveland-Portland game does have the second-highest projected point total (222) on the night. Portland has also allowed 40.6 fantasy points per contest to shooting guards over the last 10, along with the seventh-highest number of made three-pointers (3.7) to the position over that span. The latter figure is particularly relevant, considering Korver's overall long-range marksmanship, and the fact that he's drained 58.3 percent of his 4.8 attempts from distance over the last five.
FORWARDS/CENTERS:
Joel Embiid, PHI at NY ($17,600): Embiid exploded for 53.50 fantasy points against the Pacers in his most recent contest, the third time over the last 10 in which he's surpassed the 50-mark. He's also hit or eclipsed 40.0 fantasy points on two other occasions over that span, a stretch during which he's sporting a 36.2 percent usage rate and averaging 1.40 fantasy points per minute. He's already averaging a double-double (21.0 points and 11.0 rebounds, along with 2.5 assists and 1.5 blocks across 29.0 minutes) in two games against the Knicks this season as well, and New York comes in allowing the fifth-most fantasy points (36.3) to centers on the season, including the third most (49.9) over the last 10. The Knicks have also been more vulnerable in the paint over the last three (48.7, 10th-most over that span), yet another factor in Embiid's favor.
Wilson Chandler, DEN vs. DET ($11,900): JaMychal Green ($12,500) is one of several other intriguing options at this level if you have a few extra hundred to spend, but Chandler is priced right for a player that's scored 31.00 and 51.00 fantasy points over the last two, along with 22.00 to 46.00 fantasy points in nine of the previous 11 contests. Chandler's usage has seen a nice spike overall -- even with the return of Paul Millsap to the starting five -- as the 11.5 shot attempts he's averaging over the aforementioned 11-game span is a notable bump up from his 8.6 season figure. The Pistons shape up as a highly appealing matchup with which to extend his strong stretch of play, as they're allowing the third-most fantasy points (37.3) to small forwards on the season -- including 56.0 over the last five games – along with the sixth-highest offensive efficiency rating (21.5) to the position on the campaign.
Dillon Brooks, MEM vs. CHI ($9,200): The likes of Trevor Ariza ($9,200), Jae Crowder ($9,000) and Mike Muscala ($7,400) are also viable pivots at this price tier, but the emerging Brooks is seeing plenty of minutes and producing with them, a trend that should persist in a highly favorable matchup Thursday. The Bulls are tied with the Pistons in allowing the third-most fantasy points (37.3) to small forwards on the season, a figure that's bumped up to 43.5 over the last five. They're also yielding the seventh-highest offensive efficiency rating (21.4) to threes on the campaign, while Brooks has scored 20.50 to 39.75 fantasy points in his last five contests, a stretch during which he's draining an impressive 49.4 percent of his 15.8 shot attempts (as compared to an 8.6 season figure) per contest. The combined team shooting struggles of both the Grizzlies (44.2 percent, fourth lowest on the season) and Bulls (43.8 percent, second lowest) should also afford Brooks more rebounding opportunities than usual in his wing spot, helping him round out his overall production.
UTILITY:
Damian Lillard, POR vs. CLE ($16,900): Lillard playing in a game with a projected point total of 222 is never a bad play, and he becomes an even better option when considering the general disarray of the Cavs' defense and their struggles versus point guards in particular. Cleveland comes in allowing the fifth-highest shooting percentage (47.2) on the season overall, along with the fourth-highest percentage of scoring from three-pointers (32.0). Moreover, they're allowing the second-most fantasy points (42.6) to ones, along with the third-highest shooting percentage (44.0) to the position. Lillard posted an efficient 25 points, six assists and one steal across 33 minutes in his one prior meeting against the Cavs this season, and he's scored over 40 fantasy points three times, over 50 on four occasions and more than 60 in three other instances over the last 12 games.
LaMarcus Aldridge, SA vs. NO ($14,700):Rudy Gobert ($16,100) is another strong candidate for this spot if you're spending up, although his price has risen considerably of late. Meanwhile, Aldridge will be locked in to a game that will see the Spurs play at a faster pace than usual, considering the Pelicans are generating the most possessions per contest on the season (105.2), including 106.1 over the last three. They're also allowing the third-highest offensive efficiency rating (27.2) to power forwards on the season, along with the most fantasy points (41.3), most points (19.8), most rebounds (10.6) and most assists (3.3). New Orleans has been even more vulnerable to fours lately (48.0 fantasy points allowed over the last 10) and are surrendering the third-most points in the paint (48.0, including 58.0 over the last three), while Aldridge is averaging nearly half his scoring (49.0 percent) in that part of the floor.
