NBA Offseason: How major trades, signings will impact fantasy basketball

NBA Offseason: How major trades, signings will impact fantasy basketball

This article is part of our NBA Offseason series.

It seems like forever ago that the Warriors defeated the Celtics in the NBA Finals. Since then, we had an intriguing draft that included plenty of wheeling and dealing. After that marked the start of free agency.

While there are still plenty of players left on the open market, and some trades that could come down the pipe, let's take a look at some teams that have made early moves, and some individual winners and losers that emerged in fantasy basketball as a result.

2022 NBA Free Agency and Trade Tracker: Updates and fantasy analysis on every move

Atlanta Hawks

After making the Eastern Conference Finals two seasons ago, the Hawks took a significant step backward this season. They had to settle for the eighth seed, and were quickly dispatched in the first round by the Heat. They had significant assets, and were maybe too deep heading into the offseason.

An area that they needed to improve was on the defensive end, especially the backcourt. They quickly addressed that need, acquiring Dejounte Murray in a trade with the Spurs. Murray, who averaged 21.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, 9.2 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.4 three-pointers last season, now forms an exciting duo with Trae Young that figures to give NBA defenses fits while also helping on the defensive end for the Hawks.

As exciting as this move is for Atlanta, it has the potential to be trouble for Murray's fantasy value. He was the driving force behind the Spurs' scoring attack with his 27.3 percent usage rate, and he had the ball in his hands a lot. Now playing alongside Young, both his usage rate and assist totals could be on the decline.

San Antonio Spurs

On the other side of the Murray trade, the Spurs signaled that they are ready for what could be a lengthy rebuilding process. In addition to the draft picks that they received from the Hawks, they also acquired Danilo Gallinari. However, they almost immediately waived him, which is further indication that they aren't going to make any significant upgrades to their roster.

With Murray gone, Tre Jones and Keldon Johnson stand to benefit the most. Johnson, who averaged 17.0 points and 2.1 three-pointers last season, could lead the team in usage rate. Jones is currently in line to take over as the starting point guard, and he could become a major fantasy contributor. Across 10 games in which he logged at least 30 minutes last season, he averaged 14.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.4 three-pointers.

Utah Jazz

After yet another failed playoff run, it was clear that the Jazz needed to make a change. Reports also indicated that the relationship between their two star players, Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, had soured. The first domino in the rebuild to fall was when Utah traded Royce O'Neale to the Nets for a first-round pick. After that, the most significant trade came when Rudy Gobert was moved in a blockbuster deal with the Timberwolves.

In addition to Patrick Beverley, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt and 2022 first-round pick Walker Kessler, the Jazz received a treasure trove of future first-round picks. More moves could still be coming with veterans Mike Conley Jr., Jordan Clarkson and Bojan Bogdanovic still on the roster. Even Beverley and Beasley could be shipped to another team before the season begins.

As their roster currently stands, Kessler could be in line for significant minutes as a rookie. That's noteworthy because he averaged 4.6 blocks per game for Auburn while winning the SEC Defensive Player of the Year award. Vanderbilt has the potential to also have a large role, which might make him a significant contributor in the rebound department. Across 25 minutes per game with the Timberwolves, he hauled in 8.4 rebounds per game.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves bringing in Gobert leaves them with a big frontcourt in a time when the league is trending more and more towards small lineups. They needed rim protection, though, and Gobert can certainly provide that. Gobert also only has a career 16.2 percent usage rate, so don't worry too much about his offensive production now that he'll play alongside Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards. He can still score enough on offensive putbacks and through pick-and-roll opportunities.

Towns is still likely to be a top-tier fantasy option, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see his production decline – at least on the glass. As he's become more of a high-volume three-point shooter, his rebounding numbers have suffered. His rebounding average has declined in each of the last three seasons, and his average of 9.8 per game last season was the first time he finished with fewer than 10.5 per game in his career.

With Gobert gobbling up rebounds in the paint, and Towns needing to space the floor even more, expect the big man's rebounding production to decline.

New York Knicks

The Knicks failed to make the playoffs in what was a very disappointing season coming off of an encouraging 2020-21 campaign. They have struggled to sign high-profile free agents, despite playing in one of the best basketball markets. This offseason, they set their sights on Jalen Brunson early.

Brunson stepped up for the Mavericks when Luka Doncic was injured, producing a three-game stretch in the playoffs in which he averaged 32.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 2.3 three-pointers, while shooting 50.7 percent from the field and 85.0 percent from the free-throw line. During the regular season, he set career highs in points (16.3), rebounds (3.9) and assists (4.8) per game.

Now a member of the Knicks, Brunson will finally be in a leading role and be a primary ball handler for his team. What should be expected of him? Given the production that he provided when Doncic was out, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him provide similar fantasy value to Fred VanVleet, who averaged 20.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 6.7 assists last season.

While Brunson won't come close to matching VanVleet's 3.7 three-pointers made per game, he should be much more efficient, given that VanVleet shot 40.3 percent from the field. Ultimately, how much the Knicks prioritize Brunson on a roster that still includes RJ Barrett and Julius Randle will determine his fantasy ceiling.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers began their rebuild midway through last season, shipping Domantas Sabonis to the Kings in a deal that netted them promising young point guard Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton shined with his new squad, producing 17.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, 9.6 assists, 1.8 steals and 2.2 three-pointers per game. He also benefited from Malcolm Brogdon missing significant time down the stretch because of injuries.

With Haliburton in the fold, the Pacers have moved on from Brogdon, shipping him to the Celtics. The return was more about the 2023 first-round pick they acquired than the players (Daniel Theis and Aaron Nesmith). More moves could be coming, with Myles Turner rumored to still be on the block.

Now that Brogdon is gone, Haliburton has the makings of a top fantasy guard. If they don't make any other significant additions at the position, T.J. McConnell could end up being a sneaky source for production. He started alongside Haliburton the final two games of the regular season after returning from injury, recording at least 12 points, three rebounds, five assists and one steal in both games. When he logged 26 minutes per game two seasons ago, he averaged 8.6 rebounds, 3.7 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.9 steals, while shooting 55.9 percent from the field.

Los Angeles Clippers

John Wall did not play at all last season for the rebuilding Rockets, who opted to prioritize the development of their younger players. With their rebuild progressing further this offseason, they decided it was best to buy out Wall so he could sign elsewhere. He didn't last long on the open market, quickly agreeing to a contract with the Clippers.

It's unclear what Wall can provide, given his injury history and the fact that he didn't play at all last season. With that being said, he did put up 20.6 points, 3.2 rebounds and 6.9 assists during the 2020-21 season. It will be difficult for him to average 20 points per game on a loaded Clippers team, but he could still be a valuable fantasy option who will likely be available in the middle rounds of drafts.

The addition of Wall should have a negative impact on Reggie Jackson, who thrived as a starter last season by averaging 16.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.2 three-pointers in 31 minutes per game. With him potentially being reduced to 20 to 25 minutes per game, he might struggle to stay relevant in standard leagues.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Mike Barner
Mike started covering fantasy sports in 2007, joining RotoWire in 2010. In 2018, he was a finalist for the FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Mike also won the 2022-23 FSGA NBA Experts Champions league. In addition to RotoWire, Mike has written for Sportsline, Sports Illustrated, DK Live, RealTime Fantasy Sports, Lineup Lab and KFFL.com.
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