This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
If someone gave you $1,000 to spend on NBA futures, where would you put your money?
That's the premise for this preseason roundtable. We've put out iterations of this article in 2019 (COVID ruined this one, and we didn't post in 2020), 2021 and 2022.
Last year, the group was up a collective +$3,765, with Jason Shebilske nailing a $200 bet on Malcolm Brogdon for 6MOY at +1600 -- a number I was much less aggressive on with $150 when the odds dropped to +1100 mere days later.
In 2021, we were up an absurd +$10,725. Nick Whalen and I both bet Nikola Jokic to win MVP. Ken Crites and Kirien Sprecher both bet Embiid to lead the league in scoring. Sprecher and Lebowitz bet the Warriors to win the title.
Where are we looking this season?
Alex Barutha
$320 - Nikola Jokic for MVP (+450)
DraftKings, 10/15
Here's how I break this award down:
- Can the player put up historic numbers? Better yet, have they already done it?
- Does the team have a strong chance for 50+ wins?
- How much help do they have? Less is better.
- Bonus: Have they been snubbed before? Conversely, is there voter fatigue?
Jokic answers the three primary questions more "correctly" than anyone else, and you could argue he was snubbed last year. His numbers are legendary, he's coming off a 53-win season, and the best help he has is a fringe-fringe All-Star candidate in Jamal Murray.
A quick breakdown of why I'm dismissing other popular options:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (+600) -- too much help with Damian Lillard
- Luka Doncic (+600) -- team isn't good enough
- Jayson Tatum (+800) -- arguably too much help with Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday joining, but is my favorite alternative bet in this range
- Joel Embiid (+850) -- Too much team uncertainty, and I don't think voters will crown him back-to-back
Everyone else (Steph Curry is next at 15-to-1) could be considered a longshot, so they don't belong in the same argument as Jokic.
$125 - Chet Holmgren over 13.1 PPG (-125)
DraftKings, 10/15
Holmgren could easily reach this number every game just from three-pointers and lob dunks, let alone fast-break chances and iso opportunities. I understand why bettors might be hesitant since Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an automatic 30 points per game, while Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey should combine for another 30-40. But it's difficult for me to imagine looking at Holmgren's stats at the end of the year to see him averaging 10.2 points. Make of it what you will, but the rookie has a 27.7 USG% in preseason and is taking 17.8 FGAs and 9.3 FTAs per 36 minutes.
$125 - Jordan Poole over 24.7 PPG (-115)
DraftKings, 10/15
I think Poole to win Most Improved Player will be a popular wager. But I'll point out: over the past 10 years, only two MIPs have been on teams below .500, and all but one has averaged 20+ PPG. I have faith in Poole going 20+ PPG, but not 41 wins.
Anyway, Poole averaged 20.4 PPG in 30 MPG on 29.2 USG% with the Warriors last season while in a sixth-man role. However, those numbers rise to 27.9 PPG on 34.0 USG% per 36 minutes with Steph Curry off the floor. The Wizards team that Poole is on now has such little scoring punch that I won't be surprised if he keeps that 34.0 USG% and is asked to take 20+ shots per game. Washington has all its chips in on him, and the organization will want to see his capabilities as a No. 1 option.
$125 - Pelicans over 44.5 wins (-110)
DraftKings, 10/15
New Orleans won 42 games last year, though their +1.8 point differential (in non-garbage time) means their expected wins were 45.6. And that 45-win team got just 74 combined appearances out of Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. I'm taking the over on 74.5 appearances for the pair this season, so it's difficult for me to assume team will perform worse as a whole.
$100 - Steph Curry to lead the NBA in points per game (+1300)
DraftKings, 10/18
This team lost its third-best scoring option in Jordan Poole and replaced him with Chris Paul, who averaged 13.9 points last season. If I'm Golden State, I'm leaning into CP3's passing ability and Curry's scoring ability. Klay Thompson isn't as reliable as he once was, Andrew Wiggins is primarily a role player, Draymond Green doesn't score, and who knows if Jonathan Kuminga (more on him later) or Moses Moody are ready for any substantial scoring leap. My point is, I think Curry will asked to score as much as ever. He averaged a league-leading 32.0 points in 2020-21, 25.5 points in 2021-22 and 29.4 points last year. Yes, it concerns me that he's 35 years old. But I'm getting 13-to-1 on a guy who's averaged 30 recently and will need to remain a high-volume scorer.
$75 - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP (+1800)
FanDuel, 10/15
Using the MVP formula I laid out before:
- Can the player put up historic numbers? Better yet, have they already done it?
- Yes. I don't know what to tell you if you don't think 31.4 PPG, 5.5 APG, 4.8 RPG and 2.6 STL+BLK on efficient shooting isn't historic.
- Does the team have a strong chance for 50+ wins?
- OKC's over/under this year is 44.5 wins. Their expected wins last season based on non-garbage time point differential was 42.6. Their whole team should be better through development and the addition of Chet Holmgren. Maybe it's not a strong chance of 50+ wins, but it's on the table.
- How much help do they have? Less is better.
- There are no other projected All-Stars on this team, unless you have powerful feelings about Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams or Holmgren. I like them, but I don't see All-Star nods for any this season.
- Bonus: Have they been snubbed before? Conversely, is there voter fatigue?
- No and no.
$50 - Jrue Holiday for Defensive Player of the Year (+3300)
PointsBet, 10/18
Holiday is a five-time All-Defense selection, joining what was tied for the league's third-best defense last season. So, he can be the best defender on the best defense this season. Is there an argument not to take 33-to-1 on that kind of setup when it's offered to you?
$20 - Jonathan Kuminga for Sixth Man of the Year (+7000)
DraftKings, 10/18
Is Kuminga good? I'm still not sure. But this Golden State roster is thin beyond the Top 6, providing the third-year forward with an excellent opportunity to see increased minutes and usage -- plus mix in some general development. Kuminga has looked great in preseason, with per-36-minute averages of 30.2 points on 18.2 shots, 7.2 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.9 stocks (31.7 USG%). Draymond Green has been out for preseason, but I still don't think someone averages 32 USG% by mistake, especially when most of the Warriors' starters have played most of the games.
$20 - Talen Horton-Tucker for Most Improved Player (+7500)
DraftKings, 10/18
Note: If you're looking for more realistic options, I posted on Twitter regarding the recent history of this award and who my favorite non-longshots are. This article can only be so long, and I wanted to cover some fringe bets that I think are fun/enticing.
As mentioned in my write-up on Poole's points, modern Most Improved Player history suggests voters like two things: 20 PPG and 41 wins. But I'm happy to explore the fringes when I get odds this long. Initially, when outlining potential bets about two weeks ago, I preferred John Collins around these same odds. Preseason has changed a lot. Collins looks out of place and floaty, while THT has (surprisingly) been starting at shooting guard, posting averages of 23.9 points on 19.2 shots, 7.4 assists, 6.7 rebounds and 1.6 stocks per 36 minutes (29.1 USG%).
$20 - Trae Young to lead the NBA in points per game (+10000)
DraftKings, 10/18
Pure value, this is my favorite bet. Over the past four years, Young is averaging 27.4 points per game, reaching 29.6 in 2019-20 and 28.4 two years ago. During this span, he's also had the sixth-most 30-point outings. He averaged 31.0 PPG per 36 minutes with John Collins off the court last season. Young just should not be 100-to-1 to lead the league in scoring. It's far more probable than that.
$20 - Coby White for Most Improved Player (+12000)
FanDuel, 10/18
This bet is +5500 on DraftKings! That alone should prompt people to consider this wager. White has started every preseason game, with per-36-minute averages of 19.6 points on 13.7 shots, 5.9 assists, 4.8 rebounds and 1.2 steals (22.0 USG%). It'll be tough for him to usurp Nikola Vucevic as Chicago's third option on offense, but 120-to-1 leaves a lot of room for something unexpected to happen.
Nick Whalen
$150: Taylor Jenkins to win Coach of the Year (20/1 at FanDuel)
Mark Daigneault is rightfully the favorite for this award, but we want to search for a bit more value here. Jenkins nearly won the award two seasons ago and was again in contention last year as the Grizzlies won 50 games for the second straight season.
It's difficult for a coach who sustainably wins games to get the Coach of the Year nod, but the fact that Memphis will be without Ja Morant for 25 games is an interesting wrinkle for voters to consider. Over the last two seasons, the Grizzlies have been able to tread water without their start point guard. If they can do it again, win 50-plus games and capture a top-two seed in the West, Jenkins could finally get the recognition he's deserved.
$150: New York Knicks OVER 44.5 wins (-120 at DraftKings)
I talked about this one at length on the RotoWire Fantasy Basketball Podcast earlier this week. As was the case last season, this Knicks roster is constructed perfectly for one purpose: winning regular-season games. I don't see New York as a legitimate title contender, but I also don't see why they would regress after winning 47 games a year ago.
Getting a full season of Josh Hart should help improve their defense, and the addition of Donte DiVincenzo brings more depth to the backcourt. And perhaps most importantly for win total purposes, the Knicks are built around a durable core of Julius Randle, RJ Barrett, Jalen Brunson and Immanuel Quickley. Brunson and Barrett have averaged just 7.0 missed games over the last three seasons, while Randle has missed only 16 total games in that span.
$150: Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 44.5 wins (-110 at DraftKings)
There isn't much to say here. The Thunder are everyone's favorite team to make The Leap this season for a reason. Shai Gilegous-Alexander, Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams should all improve, while the return of Chet Holmgren brings some much-needed stability to the center position, which has been a glaring weakness for OKC for several years.
While I have my questions about how Holmgren will hold up, OKC has enough depth – and enough regular-season hunger – to push for 47 or 48 wins if they stay relatively healthy.
$150: Kings to win Pacific Division (9/1 at DraftKings)
A lot of things broke right for Sacramento last season, but should they be projected to finish last in the division after winning it by 3.0 games in 2022-23? Sure, chances are they won't be as historically healthy as they were a year ago, but I'm not sure I trust the Suns, Clippers, Warriors or Lakers to turn in a clean bill of health either. Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, LeBron James and Anthony Davis are virtual locks to miss chunks of time, while Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal have also been significant injury risks in recent years. Even Devin Booker missed 19 games last season.
It's entirely possible that the Kings take a step back, but much like the Knicks, this is a roster built to pile up regular-season wins. And for a team that hasn't tasted much success over the last 20 years, they should once again take the regular season more seriously than the rest of the division. If you made a list of franchises that don't care how many games they win as long as they're in the playoffs, Phoenix, Golden State and the LA teams would be right at the top.
$200: Desmond Bane to win Most Improved Player (35/1 at FanDuel)
Most Improved Player has become one of the most interesting betting markets to track each year. With so much young talent around the league, there are easily 10-to-15 players who will have a real chance to take home the award.
Allow me to lay out the case for Bane, who fits the profile of many past winners. For one, Bane is 25 and entering his fourth NBA season. Historically, the vast majority of MIPs win the award in their third, fourth or fifth seasons. Over the last 10 years, the average age of the Most Improved Player is 24.2. Six of the last seven winners made their first All-Star team the year they won the award.
Bane will be looking to do just that, he'll have a 25-game run to begin the season as the Grizzlies' No. 1 option with Ja Morant suspended. Of course, Bane will cede touches to Morant later in the year, but the idea is that he has a monster first half that carries him to a 3.0 or 4.0-point increase in scoring for the year. If Bane can keep the Grizzlies near the top of the West without Morant, it's easy to imagine the All-Star narrative emerging.
For what it's worth, I also don't mind betting Jaren Jackson (45/1) for MIP.
$100: Victor Wembanyama to win Defensive Player of the Year (20/1 at DraftKings)
We're nearing the end of our budget, so we're going to get a little loose with this one. With the obvious caveat that Wembanyama is going to need to play at least 55-to-60 games to contend for any full-season awards, I'd rather bet him as a DPOY longshot than a ROY shortshot.
Defensive Player of the Year is about more than just blocks, but it's a big-man-dominated award, and Wembanyama could hit the ground running as the best rim-protector in the league from Day 1. For a rookie to capture the award – it's never happened in NBA history – he'll have to put up overwhelming numbers. But if there's one player in the league who could conceivably sniff 4.0 blocks per game, it's Wembanyama.
Is it highly unlikely? Yes, absolutely. But if Wembanyama is as dominant as advertised on defense, you better believe the narrative will begin to form. He's the type of player people will want to vote for.
$100: Buddy Hield most made three-pointers (20/1 at DraftKings)
We're finishing out with another longshot, but hear me out. Hield has finished second in made threes for four consecutive seasons. It's a category that's been dominated by Stephen Curry, (with some cameos from James Harden and Klay Thompson) for the last decade. When Curry is healthy, he's a near-lock to lead the league in threes, which he's done seven times, but injuries are beginning to add up as he enters his age-35 season. He played only 56 games a year ago and hasn't played more than 64 games since 2018-19.
On the contrary, Hield has been perhaps the healthiest rotation player in the league throughout his seven seasons. No one has played more games than Hield since he entered the NBA in 2016-17, and he's second only to Curry in total made threes in that span. Trade talks do cloud Hield's future in Indiana, but even if he's dealt he'd likely wind up in a similar, high-volume situation.
Essentially, this is a bet against Curry's health and in favor of Hield's durability and consistency. After falling short four seasons in a row, this is the year Hield finally gets it done.
Kirien Sprecher
$250 – Anthony Edwards, Most Valuable Player (+3000, FanDuel)
There were questions about Edwards' work ethic coming out of college, but he has put those to rest by making significant strides in each of his first three campaigns. He made his first All-Star team last year and emerged as the Timberwolves' go-to player with Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns missing extended action. It's certainly possible Edwards will plateau this year, but the way he was playing for Team USA at the FIBA World Cup this summer makes me think he's still hungry and ready for another leap in production. He'll have to correct some consistency concerns to make that leap, which is never easy, but he's already proven the ability to hone in on an aspect of his game during the offseason and show vast improvements the following campaign. If he takes another step forward and the Timberwolves are competing for home-court advantage in the playoffs, Edwards' name will almost certainly be brought up in MVP conversations by the end of the 2023-24 campaign. Those are some big what-ifs, but so is a +3000 payout.
$250 – Cade Cunningham, Most Improved Player (+1500, FanDuel)
Cunningham was a candidate for this award last year before he suffered a season-ending shin injury. The third-year point guard turned down an opportunity to play for Team USA at the FIBA World Cup this summer, opting instead to focus on preparing for the 2023-24 NBA campaign. However, Cunningham did practice with Team USA, which featured players like Anthony Edwards, Brandon Ingram and Mikal Bridges, and the takeaway from those sessions was that Cunningham dominated. With the shin issue behind him, it's full speed ahead for the Oklahoma State product, who should lead a frisky Pistons squad under the tutelage of new head coach Monty Williams. Despite how things ended in Phoenix, Williams did a fantastic job turning around the Suns franchise and helped mold Devin Booker into the star he is today.
$250 – Nuggets to win NBA Title (+550, FanDuel)
The Nuggets were by far the best team in the league last year and proved that by hoisting The Larry O'Brien Trophy. They lost role players in Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, but they have multiple players to fill those voids, including promising young options like Christian Braun, Hunter Tyson and Peyton Watson. While Brown and Green played key roles, the Nuggets' core remains intact, and barring a championship hangover, they should be at the top of the Western Conference again this season.
$250 – Nuggets versus Bucks in NBA Finals (+900, FanDuel)
I expect the Nuggets train to keep on rolling into 2023-24, and barring injuries, I don't see anyone in the West beating them in a seven-game series. In my opinion, the East is a bit more crowded at the top. The Heat deserve to be in the conversation after what they've accomplished in recent years, and the Celtics made some noise this offseason, as well. The Sixers remain a mystery, but as long as Joel Embiid is upright, they have a shot to compete. However, the tandem of Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo is too hard to pass up. Unlike other duos (or even trios) in the NBA, Lillard and Antetokounmpo's games mesh perfectly. There will certainly be some hiccups with a new head coach in town, but the Bucks' core has been together long enough to work through those issues. Maybe I'm being dramatic, but the Jamal Murray/Nikola Jokic versus Lillard/Antetokounmpo matchup would be the best possible scenario for NBA fans and the league as a whole.
Ken Crites
Cam Thomas, 6th Man of the Year: $75. +4500.
Gotta give credit to Alex Barutha on this as he pointed out the crazy odds. If Thomas is playin', he's scorin'. The other bench guys for Brooklyn are all defensive types: Dorian Finney-Smith, Royce O'Neale. Thomas averaged 22.9 points per 36 minutes last season. Expect more from the 22-year-old this season.
Boston Celtics, Champions: $300. +400.
I know, boring. But they have the best Top 6 in the NBA. Folks complain about their depth, but name any team that can afford to lose a star or two? Jeff Van Gundy needs a ring!
Phoenix Suns, 51.5 Wins, Take the Under: $225. +100.
I don't see how Kevin Durant and/or Bradley Beal play 55+ games. KD is 35 years old and averaged 46 games played over the past three years. Beal is 30 years old and has averaged 52 games played over his past four seasons. And if they are healthy late in the season, the Suns will rest both of them. Plus they lack a true point guard.
Tyrese Haliburton, All-NBA First Team: $200. +1500.
Tyrese is the unquestioned star of this Pacers team and coming off a 20+ points, 10+ assists per game season while shooting 49 FG%. And his arrow is still pointing up. Sure, he's competing at guard with Luka, Booker, Curry, SGA, Young, Lillard and Fox for two spots. But Young doesn't play defense. SGA and Luka are an injury risk. Dame will shoot less in Milwaukee. And those odds are so juicy.
Steve Alexander
$100 – Nikola Jokic, Most Valuable Player (+450, DraftKings)
I'll keep going with Jokic at MVP until he proves me wrong. The Nuggets could win it all again and the only team favored over them is the Celtics. Jayson Tatum makes some sense for some MVP wagering but I'm going to with the Joker because he seems like the safest bet to me.
$100 – Chet Holmgren, Rookie of the Year (+280, DraftKings)
Holmgren has looked amazing in the preseason and benefited from spending last season in the NBA and around his teammates. It had to be a good learning experience for him and the Thunder are going to be going for it this season to see how deep they can run into the playoffs. Victor Wembanyama is the trendy pick but I think the Thunder are going to rack up a bunch of wins and Holmgren should be a steady, driving force behind making it happen in OKC.
$100 – Victor Wembanyama, Rookie of the Year (+120, DraftKings)
While I like Chet's odds, Wemby is going to simply tear up the league every time he's on the court. If the Spurs don't play it completely safe and let him play, it's going to be tough for Wemby to not win this award. Therefore, I'm comfortable with throwing some money at both big men as long as one of them wins the award.
$100 – Jalen Williams, Most Improved Player (+2200, DraftKings)
Williams is one of the league's rising stars and while he could play second fiddle to guys like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey and Holmgren, Williams is going to play a big role in what the Thunder do this season. And his numbers weren't mind blowing enough last year to set the bar too high for him to pull this off.
$100 – Mark Daigneault OKC Thunder, Coach of the Year (+650, DraftKings)
Sticking with the Thunder, Daigneault has a full arsenal of weapons at his disposal in OKC. The Thunder's constant tanking over the last four or five years is going to pay off this season and if they meet expectations, it won't take much for Daigneault to win this award. If I wasn't going with Daigneault, Nick Nurse would be my choice with the Celtics, who are currently favored to win it all.
$100 – Bennedict Mathurin, Sixth Man of the Year (+5000, DraftKings)
I think the Pacers are going to be a solid sleeper team and Mathurin should build on last season's success to help them hit their over in wins (38.5). He's super-talented and he could end up making Buddy Hield an afterthought in Indy this season. I'm swinging for the fences on Mathurin.
$100 – Jaren Jackson Jr, Defensive Player of the Year. (+600, DraftKings)
JJJ is all about the steals and (especially) blocks, and won't have to worry about Ja Morant steal any of his thunder during the first 25 games of the season due to a suspension. Jackson is entering his sixth season and the prime of his career so I'm expecting big things from the talented big man. If he leads the league in blocks like I suspect he will, he should easily lock up this award.
$100 – Pacers over 38.5 wins (-110, DraftKings)
The Pacers appear to have the perfect combination of youth and veterans to be a very good team this season. Tyrese Haliburton is one of the most exciting point guards in the league, Bruce Brown, Myles Turner and Buddy Hield are seasoned veterans who call all play, and Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin, Obi Toppin and Jerace Walker are all up-and-coming stars. I'll be surprised if the Pacers don't win 40 games.
$100 – Mavericks under 43.5 wins (-110, DraftKings)
The Mavs are Luka Doncic, injured Kyrie Irving (groin) and a bunch of guys playing in a tough Western Conference. Luka and Kyrie are already banged up and there's only so much Luka can do by himself. The Mavericks have another Top 10 protected pick and it's possible that Luka could be resting a lot down the stretch. And if he's not healthy or sitting out games, it's going to be tough for the Mavericks to top 40 wins this season.
$100 – Celtics to win the NBA Title (+400, DraftKings)
The Celtics are the favorites to win it all and I think the addition and subtraction of Jrue Holiday from the Bucks to the Celtics is enough for the Celtics to win it all. They also have Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis to help Holiday along the way. The only question is, can they survive at center with Al Horford leading the way? I think they can.
Joel Bartilotta
(Odds are from DraftKings)
Oklahoma City Thunder Over 44.5 Wins -110 ($250)
OKC has been in rebuild mode for years, and it feels like they're finally on the plus side of the spectrum. This young team finished with 40 wins last season, and that looks like the floor when evaluating the talent on this roster. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a legitimate MVP candidate, while Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams are still below 23 years old. We didn't even mention Chet Holmgren, who could also be one of the best young bigs in the NBA, despite missing the 2022-23 season. When Josh Giddey is your fourth-best player, you should reach 45 wins!
Oklahoma City Thunder to Make Playoffs -135 ($250)
Not much needs to be said after the last write-up. If this team is going to win 45 games, they're going to make the postseason! They were just one win away from that in the play-in tournament last year, and this is a much-improved team!
Phoenix Suns Over 51.5 Wins -110 ($200)
Phoenix is my favorite to finish with the best record in the Western Conference, and I could see them winning nearly 60 games. Having a core of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal is absurd, but they've done an incredible job of building around those guys. Adding Jusuf Nurkic as the starting center is the most significant move because he's a much better fit with this team than DeAndre Ayton. Don't overlook additions like Eric Gordon, Nassir Little, Drew Eubanks, Keita Bates-Diop, Yuta Watanabe, Grayson Allen and Bol Bol. That's the depth this team has been missing, and it should lead to some regular-season dominance.
Boston v Milwaukee Eastern Conference Finals Matchup +290 ($150)
For our first long-shot bet, we will swallow the chalk on the Eastern Conference. It just seems inevitable that these two teams will square off in the Eastern Conference Finals. We expect Philly and Miami to take a step back while these two teams added studs like Damian Lillard, Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. These are the clear-cut two best teams in the East, and it would be shocking if they didn't match up in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Jordan Poole Most Improved Player +1200 ($150)
This is my one big long-shot bet! The Most Improved Player of the Year Award always seems to be a dramatic award, and there weren't many bigger off-season storylines than Poole leaving the Warriors. Sending him off to Washington looked like a punishment, but it was a blessing for his career. This talented youngster should be handling the ball regularly and posting career highs across the board. He averaged 20.4 points and 4.5 assists in a complementary bench role last season behind Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, and it's scary to think what he could do as the focal point of an offense. It feels like 25-30 points is not out of the realm of possibility, and if he's one of the leading scorers in the NBA after all the off-season drama, you better believe he'll get some MIP votes.
Michael Gillow
$50– Luka Doncic, NBA clutch player of the year (+1200 at FanDuel)
This bet will be less stats-related than most, but that's the nature of this award. Doncic actually scored just 0.2 points fewer than last year's winner, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, in the "clutch", as defined by NBA.com But everyone remembers Doncic's rookie year, when he was hitting ridiculous stepback threes to win games on what felt like a weekly basis. This investment could hit big if he can regain some of that Luka Magic.
$50— Bam Adebayo, Defensive Player of the Year (+1000 at FanDuel)
Adebayo has finished in the top 5 for this award in each of the last four seasons. With the Heat perennially boasting a stout defense, Adebayo is bound to receive recognition as the team's anchor at some point. He will likely need to boost his steals and blocks totals slightly to come out on top, but the NBA's voters typically like to honor new winners.
$200— Victor Wembanyama, Rookie of the Year (+130 at FanDuel)
Wembanyama is one of the most hyped prospects of all time. Fans, the media, the voters, and anyone you can think of will be tuning into a lot of his games. This matters in award voting. There is competition from Chet Holmgren and Scoot Henderson, but Wembanyama has proven this preseason that his game can translate on both sides of the ball immediately. If the French phenom stays healthy and comes close to living up to expectations, he's a shoo-in for this award.
$200– NBA Southeast Division winner: Miami Heat (-175) and NBA Central Winners: Bucks (-350) for overall (+102 at DraftKings)
The Heat and Bucks are heavy favorites to win their own divisions, and for good reason. There just aren't that many strong competitors. With the addition of Damian Lillard, it would be disastrous for the Bucks not to finish above the Cavaliers, their only real competition. Likewise, the Heat really only have to worry about the Hawks. The Heat had three more wins than the Hawks last year in a disappointing regular season, and the Hawks lost John Collins. At plus odds, this is as close to a lock as you'll find.
$100– Raptors, Play-In team (+145 at DraftKings)
The Raptors were firmly in the Play-In last year, as they would've had to lose an additional 6 games to drop to the 11th seed. While perhaps the loss of Fred VanVleet might cause a dip in their performance, Dennis Schroder isn't a bad replacement. Regardless, Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby is a stronger core than most bottom-feeders in the East can offer. Unless both the Pacers and Magic take big leaps, Toronto should find themselves between seven and 10 in the standings once the regular season ends.
$100– Pacific, Winningest Division (-250 at DraftKings)
The Pacific division boasts the Suns, Warriors, Lakers, Clippers, and Kings. Need I say more? Each one of these teams are strong candidates for playoff and even title contention. Even if one or two of them flop, there's still plenty of firepower to finish as the winningest division.
$100– Bucks, Seed under 2.5 (-200 at DraftKings)
The Bucks were the first seed in the Eastern Conference last year and then added Damian Lillard. Outside of the Celtics, the only foreseeable competition for a top-2 seed would be the 76ers, who could be trading away James Harden. Barring a major injury, the Bucks are more likely to finish as the top seed than third or lower.
$100– Nikola Jokic, First Team ALL-NBA: Yes (-140 at DraftKings)
Jokic was on the All-NBA First Team the previous two years but was Second Team last year, as he lost out to Joel Embiid. However, I would argue that he should've been on it for his third straight season. With voter fatigue no longer an issue, Jokic is bound to receive top honors as the Nuggets look to repeat as champions.
$100– Giannis Antetokounmpo, First Team All-NBA: yes (+140 at DraftKings)
I promise I'm not a Bucks fan, but Milwaukee seems primed for a great year in 2023-24. The Greek Freak has made First-Team All-NBA each of the last five seasons! With the Bucks likely to make another top finish in the regular season, I see no reason why that streak should end.
