This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Midway through Week 7 of the NBA season, Nick Whalen writes on a few of his favorite NBA futures bets. All odds via the DraftKings Sportsbook.
LeBron James (+325) or Kevin Durant to win MVP (+600)
At the quarter-season mark, I still believe the stars may be aligning for LeBron James (+350) to back his way into a fifth MVP award, but the race promises to be as wide-open as any in recent years. At this point in the season, there's no firm runaway statistical winner, though Nikola Jokic is probably the closest thing we have to that. If the award was based purely on numbers, Jokic would be the favorite. But it's not, and the narrative matters just as much as the production.
Herein lies the case for both James and Durant, owners of the two strongest MVP narratives. For James, the case rests on two pillars: First, he's having yet another vintage statistical year at age 36 on a great team. Second, he's probably owed a make-up MVP or two over the last decade. Time and time again, James has finished second or third in the voting, only to clearly reassert himself as the unquestioned best player in the world come the postseason and, more often than not, the NBA Finals.
For Durant, the narrative is more of a feel-good story. He blew out his Achilles playing through injury in the 2019 Finals and sat out the entirety of the longest season in NBA history. Expectations were high-yet-tempered for Durant in Brooklyn, but thus far he's looked every bit the same player he was at his late-20s peak. Durant has missed a few games for maintenance purposes, but he's unlikely to miss enough time to knock him out of MVP contention.
Personally, I think James is the safer bet right now. He hasn't always been the preseason betting favorite, but James is basically the default MVP each year, unless someone else pries the award away from him. For most of the last decade, that's exactly what's happened. From Stephen Curry to Russell Westbrook to James Harden to Giannis Antetokounmpo, extraordinary statistical seasons have been required to capture the award. Maybe at the end of the year it'll be Jokic, but I'm not convinced we'll get a season like that from another star. And if there isn't a clear it's definitely this guy choice, I could see voters defaulting to James as something of a "lifetime achievement" MVP.
With all of that said, value-wise, there's still a great case for Durant. The numbers are fantastic, and he's leading what could end up being the No. 1 seed in the East. However, some voters might hold the James Harden addition against Durant in the same way Durant and Curry were essentially disqualified from winning any MVPs while playing together in Golden State. This time, it wasn't necessarily Durant's doing, but he won't get any extra credit for once again teaming up with another MVP.
Immanuel Quickley to win Rookie of the Year (+1000)
LaMelo Ball (-121) and Tyrese Haliburton (+350) are the rightful Rookie of the Year frontrunners, but Quickley has done his part to narrow the gap. Less than two weeks ago, he was listed at 80-to-1 on the DraftKings Sportsbook, and he sat at 16-to-1 just three days ago. At the FanDuel Sportsbook, Quickley is all the way down at 6-to-1.
He'll face an uphill climb to pass up both Ball and Haliburton, but Quickley started the season in a hole, as he didn't see 20-plus minutes in any game until Jan. 11. Over his last 11 games, Quickley is averaging 16.9 points, 3.5 assists, 3.0 rebounds and 2.3 made threes, while holding a 45/40/92 shooting line. He went for 25 points in back-to-back games this past weekend before posting 16 points, seven assists and a season-high six boards against the Bulls on Monday.
Entering Wednesday, the Knicks have dropped five of their last six games, but ultimately that could help Quickley's case. The more losses the Knicks take, the more likely they are to move away from Elfrid Payton as the starter at point guard. If Quickley can become the first of the rookie trio to secure a full-time starting spot -- for the New York Knicks, of all teams -- the hype around him could go to another level.
Brooklyn Nets to win the East (+165) + LA Lakers to win the West (+125)
It's too early to place any "Exact Finals Matchup" bets at the DraftKings Sportsbook, so we'll have to settle for building our own makeshift bet. There's not a ton of value on either team right now, but parlaying the Nets to win the East and the Lakers to take the West nets you +496 odds -- not a bad deal.
Plenty can, and likely will, change between now and the postseason, but the case for both teams is pretty clear. Each is the most talented in its conference with the best star duo -- in the Nets' case, trio -- in its conference. At their best, LeBron James and Kevin Durant are the two best players in the league, while James Harden, Anthony Davis and, to a lesser degree, Kyrie Irving all have ceilings that are nearly as high.
The Lakers navigated through the West last season with an extremely top-heavy build and few reliable options off the bench. While dodging the Clippers was key, the Lakers proved once again that top-end talent wins out, even if the roster around that talent isn't all that special. This season, Los Angeles is almost overflowing with depth. Marc Gasol, Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell are all significant additions, and the emergence of Talen Horton-Tucker as a high-upside bench player (or trade chip) is an added bonus. The Clippers, Jazz and Nuggets could all provide resistance, but if the Lakers don't make it back to the Finals, it will be viewed as a disappointment.
Meanwhile, Brooklyn will have its own difficulties battling Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Boston and (maybe) Miami, but the Nets will have at least two of the three best players in any of those series. The Nets' overall depth and defensive level of interest remain significant concerns, but the scoring ability of Durant, Harden and Irving is so overwhelming that it might not matter. Plus, Brooklyn will almost certainly shore up its depth with a minor trade or a buyout player as the season progresses.
