This article is part of our NBA Draft Kit series.
Earlier in the week, the RotoWire NBA crew revealed its 2021-22 Expert Composite Rankings. After some time to check out everyone's rankings, the group participated in a roundtable discussion about the exercise.
In addition, at the bottom of this article is an extra rankings chart. It features each player's highest and lowest ranking, plus a variance score from all five participants' rankings. That can be read as how much, or low little, confidence the group has in that player.
1. This season we introduced a new ranking method -- picking players in a "who would you rather draft" format rather than adjusting players up and down a list. Which do you prefer?
Nick: In terms of the process itself, compiling the rankings with a "Player vs. Player" format was definitely easier than manually dragging them around in a spreadsheet. But at the same time, I would prefer to see my rankings in real time and be able to overrule what the computer spits out.
Ken: While I enjoyed the exercise, the results have some odd outliers. I would not rank LeBron in my Top 12 and Lillard should be a higher pick. I prefer the traditional method.
Gabe: I like the "who would you rather draft?" format because it simulates what it's like to be on the clock, where often enough we are torn between two players and forced to go with our gut.
Alex: I certainly enjoyed this method more. It was engaging, challenging and fun. However, it
Earlier in the week, the RotoWire NBA crew revealed its 2021-22 Expert Composite Rankings. After some time to check out everyone's rankings, the group participated in a roundtable discussion about the exercise.
In addition, at the bottom of this article is an extra rankings chart. It features each player's highest and lowest ranking, plus a variance score from all five participants' rankings. That can be read as how much, or low little, confidence the group has in that player.
1. This season we introduced a new ranking method -- picking players in a "who would you rather draft" format rather than adjusting players up and down a list. Which do you prefer?
Nick: In terms of the process itself, compiling the rankings with a "Player vs. Player" format was definitely easier than manually dragging them around in a spreadsheet. But at the same time, I would prefer to see my rankings in real time and be able to overrule what the computer spits out.
Ken: While I enjoyed the exercise, the results have some odd outliers. I would not rank LeBron in my Top 12 and Lillard should be a higher pick. I prefer the traditional method.
Gabe: I like the "who would you rather draft?" format because it simulates what it's like to be on the clock, where often enough we are torn between two players and forced to go with our gut.
Alex: I certainly enjoyed this method more. It was engaging, challenging and fun. However, it does produce some results that don't feel correct. I think a mix of "Player vs. Player" and then adjusting after that seems like the way to get the best results.
James: I thought it was an interesting alternative. I am so used to ranking players by moving them up and down a list that it's second nature to me, but I didn't mind switching it up.
2. With these essentially being "blind" rankings, who are some players whose rank surprised you in your own rankings?
Nick: I'm a longtime Robert Covington believer, but he came out a bit higher (52) than I expected. I was nearly a full round higher on him than his next-highest rank of 61. Conversely, Kyle Lowry came out lower (64) than I expected. Factoring in age and change of scenery, I do think Lowry takes a step back this season, but I have him roughly 16 spots lower than the composite number, which would obviously be even lower if it weren't for my rank.
Ken: I'm surprised I'm so negative on LaMelo Ball. Typical cranky old man thinking, which I need to change. He has a ton of room for improvement over his rookie season.
Gabe: I'm surprised my rankings for Julius Randle (25) and Jrue Holiday (36) weren't reversed.
Alex: I feel like I'm the world's leading source of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hype, but I had him ranked the lowest (30) out of everybody. My ranks for OG Anunoby (80) and Tyrese Haliburton (77) are also significantly too low.
James: Given that I submitted mine roughly two weeks ago, there are already so many things I'd change just by glancing. I think KAT is firmly 3rd or 4th for me now, but he was 6th in this iteration. I had LeBron higher (13th) than I'd have him now after getting a chance to battle test my rankings in a few NFBKC drafts. There weren't that many glaring surprises, which means the ranking method worked pretty well.
3. What are some surprising average ranks? Players you think the group may collectively be too high or too low on.
Nick: Collectively, I think we're just a tad high on LeBron James (12.4). I have him at 15, so it's not like I think he's a third-round value, but LeBron returning first-round value feels like an absolute best-case scenario at this stage of his career. We're probably a bit high on Joel Embiid, as well -- James' rank of 20th is probably more in line of where I would predict he finishes in total value. Obviously, the upside is there, but he carries significant health-related question marks. We may be a bit too high on Miles Bridges, who garnered a pair of top-55 ranks. The way he finished last season can't be ignored, but if P.J. Washington, Gordon Hayward and Kelly Oubre are healthy, it'll be tough for Bridges to reach those heights again.
Ken: We might be a bit too high on Karl Anthony-Towns. After four seasons of rarely missing a game, he had a rough two-year span. Were the absences freak issues that won't happen again, or has playing for a perennial loser softened his will to play? Two years ago he fought wrist and knee injuries. Last year he missed a bunch of games due to COVID-19 protocols. And his field goal percentage has been on a four-year slide.
Gabe: I think collectively we slept on Christian Wood (40.6) and probably overrated Fred VanVleet (19.6).
Alex: I'm surprised at how measured we were when it comes to Robert Williams (67). He's going in the 40s, if not the 30s, in some drafts. There are a lot of questions surrounding his workload and health, but clearly the upside is immense. Isaiah Stewart (86.6) is also someone that I think we all like but have muted expectations for compared to the extreme optimists. Good luck drafting him after the sixth round.
James: Obviously I think the group is too high on Julius Randle, as I'm the big outlier on him. I just think last year was a clear career year for him that he won't be able to repeat. I think the group is too high on Domantas Sabonis, as I just don't think Rick Carlisle will let him post up enough to justify the cost of a center who doesn't block shots going in the second round of drafts. The group is too low on Michael Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Jaden McDaniels and Ivica Zubac.
4. The following players had at least one ranking outside the Top 100 and at least one ranking inside the Top 60: Robert Covington, Ben Simmons, Chris Boucher, Buddy Hield, Jusuf Nurkic, Jalen Green, Jonathan Isaac, De'Andre Hunter. Who is the most surprising player on this list?
Nick: It's probably Covington. Most of the other names have some well-known risk factors, whereas Covington's defensive production gives him such a high floor in fantasy basketball. He was really struggling for much of last season but still finished inside the top 40 in total value (8-cat).
Ken: I can see why those players have a wide array of opinions. Covington is the safest bet amongst that gang. He'll get crazy minutes in Portland and continue to snag 3's and Stocks. Somehow I'm the one with Covington in the 100's, which is a complete mistake on my part. He's another example of why I prefer the traditional method.
Gabe: Surprisingly optimistic: Isaac (who I ranked 59) and Hunter (60). Surprisingly pessimistic: Covington (109).
Alex: First, I think this is a great list of polarizing players. Debating these guys could be a whole article. But, I digress. I'm just a Covington guy. Give me Covington before pick 75 every year. He always reaches that value as a steals and blocks monster. If you play in NFBKC leagues, especially two-center ones, he's even more valuable since he qualifies as a center. I'd rather jump the gun than be late in that format.
James: I'm surprised Jonathan Isaac got ranked inside the top 60. He's without a timetable for game action, his workload will be managed when he does come back, and he's a decent bet to get hurt again. I'm always running away from players like this.
5. We had nine players earn at least one ranking in the Top 5: Jokic, Harden, Curry, Giannis, Doncic, Towns, Durant, Lillard. If forced to kick one player out of that group, who are you choosing?
Nick: Giannis Antetokounmpo or Kevin Durant, but I'll go with Giannis. This is a really tough question, and I wouldn't have an issue with taking Giannis in the top-five, but his free throw shooting makes his path to finishing that high in eight-category leagues really difficult. Durant's health/load management concerns are also a major factor, but if those turn out to be overblown, he could cruise to a top-five finish.
Ken: Towns is probably the first guy I'm kicking out, for the reasons I explain above. I'd probably bump out KD next, due to injury risk.
Gabe: Hindsight, maybe Giannis? The fact that his knee is still bothering him is not ideal.
Alex: Durant. Obviously, his upside is through the roof. But I just have a hard time dealing with his recent injury history combined with his age and height. If I had to win one single basketball game, I'd pick Durant, but I don't trust him to play more than 65 games this season.
James: Damian Lillard. He started to wear down in the Olympics, and he's the most likely of those players to show signs of not being in his absolute prime anymore.
