NBA Expansion Draft Team Exposure Index: Which Franchises Have the Most to Lose in 2028?
Which NBA franchises risk losing their best players in the 2028 Expansion Draft? Our Exposure Index ranks vulnerability so you know who’s most exposed.
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The NBA expansion era is officially underway. On March 25, 2026, the league's Board of Governors voted unanimously to begin formal exploration of adding franchises in Las Vegas and Seattle -- two markets widely projected to debut as the league's 31st and 32nd teams for the 2028-29 season. The financial stakes are enormous, with franchise bids expected to land between $7 and $10 billion each. But for the 30 existing franchises, the more immediate question isn't the price tag. It's who they're going to lose.
RotoWire's NBA Expansion Draft Team Exposure Index scores all 30 franchises across four weighted factors.
Depth drop-off measures the quality gap between a team's eighth-best protected player and what gets left exposed -- the steeper the drop, the more an expansion team gains. Contract exposure captures the dollar value and years committed to players outside the protection window, since high-salary exposed players are both more attractive to pick and more painful to lose.
Youth and upside scores how young and controllable the exposed pool is, because expansion teams covet cheap, long-term assets above all else.
Talent density accounts for overall roster quality -- deeper rosters tend to leave better players on the table regardless of intent.
Draft capital then acts as a net modifier. Teams with more incoming first-round picks by 2028 can replace a lost player through the draft, reducing their effective exposure score. Teams with no picks have no safety net.
Scores are based on current rosters and confirmed contracts as of March 2026. Draft capital reflects incoming first-round picks 2026-28 per public reporting. Expansion draft rules modeled on 2004 Charlotte Bobcats precedent (8-player protection limit, maximum one player lost per team); final rules subject to NBA/NBPA negotiation.
NBA Expansion 2028
Team Exposure Index
Which franchises have the most to lose when Seattle & Las Vegas pick their rosters?
30
Teams ranked
67
Avg net exposure
15
High-risk teams
7
Low draft cushion
#
Team
Tier
Depth ▼
Contract ▼
Youth ▼
Talent ▼
Draft cap. ▼
Net exposure ▼
1
Houston Rockets
West
Contender
9.0
9.0
8.8
9.0
High (4 picks)
79High
1
Minnesota Timberwolves
West
Contender
8.5
9.2
7.8
8.8
Mid (2 picks)
79High
3
Oklahoma City Thunder
West
Contender
9.5
8.0
9.2
9.8
High (5 picks)
78High
3
Detroit Pistons
East
Contender
8.8
7.5
9.5
8.5
Mid (2 picks)
78High
5
Dallas Mavericks
West
Contender
8.0
8.0
8.5
8.5
Mid (2 picks)
75High
6
New York Knicks
East
Contender
7.5
9.0
6.8
8.8
Low (1 pick)
74High
7
Indiana Pacers
East
Contender
8.0
7.2
8.2
8.2
Mid (2 picks)
72High
7
LA Clippers
West
Fringe
7.8
7.5
8.2
7.5
Low (1 pick)
72High
9
Memphis Grizzlies
West
Contender
8.2
7.5
7.5
8.0
Mid (2 picks)
71High
9
Boston Celtics
East
Contender
8.2
7.0
6.5
9.5
Mid (2 picks)
71High
11
San Antonio Spurs
West
Rebuilding
8.5
6.5
9.8
6.5
Mid (3 picks)
70High
11
Cleveland Cavaliers
East
Contender
7.8
8.2
7.2
8.5
Mid (3 picks)
70High
13
Philadelphia 76ers
East
Fringe
7.2
9.5
5.5
7.5
Low (1 pick)
69High
14
Brooklyn Nets
East
Rebuilding
8.0
7.0
9.5
6.5
High (4 picks)
68High
14
Sacramento Kings
West
Fringe
7.0
7.8
7.5
7.0
Low (1 pick)
68High
16
New Orleans Pelicans
West
Rebuilding
7.0
7.5
8.0
6.8
Mid (2 picks)
67Medium
16
Golden State Warriors
West
Fringe
7.5
8.5
6.5
7.8
Mid (3 picks)
67Medium
18
Washington Wizards
East
Rebuilding
6.5
8.5
7.8
5.5
Mid (2 picks)
65Medium
18
Milwaukee Bucks
East
Fringe
6.5
8.0
6.2
7.5
Low (1 pick)
65Medium
18
Phoenix Suns
West
Fringe
6.2
8.5
6.5
7.0
Low (1 pick)
65Medium
21
Toronto Raptors
East
Rebuilding
7.5
6.5
9.0
6.2
Mid (3 picks)
64Medium
22
Charlotte Hornets
East
Rebuilding
7.2
6.2
9.2
6.5
High (4 picks)
63Medium
23
Atlanta Hawks
East
Rebuilding
6.8
5.8
8.8
6.8
Mid (3 picks)
62Medium
24
LA Lakers
West
Fringe
5.8
7.0
6.5
7.2
Low (1 pick)
60Medium
25
Portland Trail Blazers
West
Rebuilding
6.5
6.0
8.5
5.8
Mid (3 picks)
59Medium
25
Chicago Bulls
East
Rebuilding
6.5
6.0
8.2
6.5
Mid (3 picks)
59Medium
27
Denver Nuggets
West
Fringe
5.5
6.2
6.0
7.8
Mid (2 picks)
57Medium
28
Utah Jazz
West
Rebuilding
6.2
6.5
8.0
5.5
High (5 picks)
54Low
28
Miami Heat
East
Fringe
5.2
6.5
6.5
6.8
Mid (3 picks)
54Low
28
Orlando Magic
East
Fringe
5.0
5.5
7.2
6.8
Mid (2 picks)
54Low
Teams with a net exposure score of 68 or higher — the franchises expansion teams will target first. Hover or tap any card for full context.
4 incoming firsts including unprotected PHX '27. Protecting Durant, Sengun, A.Thompson, Sheppard, J.Smith, Eason, VanVleet, Finney-Smith still leaves useful veterans on multi-year deals.
Minnesota TimberwolvesContender
Key exposed: Naz Reid ($14M/3yrs), Donte DiVincenzo, Terrence Shannon Jr.
79
High
Draft cushion: Mid (2 picks)Raw: 82 → Net: 79
Only 2 incoming picks. Naz Reid at 3yrs/$42M is one of the best exposed players in the league — a starting-caliber big expansion teams covet. Highest contract exposure among confirmed-contract teams.
Oklahoma City ThunderContender
Key exposed: Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein, Kenrich Williams, Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Nikola Topic
78
High
Draft cushion: High (5 picks)Raw: 86 → Net: 78
5 incoming first-round picks (own '26, LAC '26, own '27, own '28, MIL '28, UTA '28) — best draft cushion in the league. Would expose two starters and multiple elite role players. Every mock expansion draft starts here.
Detroit PistonsContender
Key exposed: Caris LeVert, Paul Reed, Chaz Lanier, Daniss Jenkins
78
High
Draft cushion: Mid (2 picks)Raw: 81 → Net: 78
Only 2 incoming picks. Jenkins is a 23-yr-old starter on a controlled deal — genuinely painful to lose. Protecting Cunningham, Duren, A.Thompson, Holland, Stewart, Robinson, Sasser, Klintman. Limited cushion makes this hurt more.
Dallas MavericksContender
Key exposed: Klay Thompson (expiring), Khris Middleton (expiring), Caleb Martin, AJ Johnson
75
High
Draft cushion: Mid (2 picks)Raw: 78 → Net: 75
2 incoming picks (owe swap to OKC '28). Flagg + core fills 8 slots easily. Klay and Middleton can't be protected as expirees. Caleb Martin on multi-year deal is the real expansion target.
New York KnicksContender
Key exposed: Miles McBride, Tyler Kolek, Pacome Dadiet
74
High
Draft cushion: Low (1 pick)Raw: 76 → Net: 74
Only 1 incoming pick — traded most away. Protecting KAT, Brunson, OG, Bridges, Hart, Robinson + others. 9+ players on massive deals forces the exposure of a useful rotation piece. Lowest draft cushion of any contender.
Indiana PacersContender
Key exposed: T.J. McConnell, Johnny Furphy, Jay Huff, Quenton Jackson
72
High
Draft cushion: Mid (2 picks)Raw: 75 → Net: 72
2 picks. Furphy — 22 years old, wing, cheap deal — is the key expansion target. Protecting Haliburton, Siakam, Zubac, Nembhard, Toppin, Nesmith, Walker, Sheppard. Moderate cushion.
LA ClippersFringe
Key exposed: Cameron Brown, veteran depth
72
High
Draft cushion: Low (1 pick)Raw: 74 → Net: 72
Only 1 pick (owe picks to OKC). Protecting Kawhi, Garland, Mathurin, Jones Jr., Jackson, Konan Niederhauser, Christie + 1. Low pick count makes any loss more significant.
Memphis GrizzliesContender
Key exposed: Brandon Clarke, Vince Williams Jr., Scotty Pippen Jr.
71
High
Draft cushion: Mid (2 picks)Raw: 74 → Net: 71
2 picks. The Grizzlies have 11 players under contract — protecting Morant, JJJ, Bane, Wells, Edey + 3 others leaves real contributors exposed. Clarke is young and cheap. Limited cushion means any loss stings.
Boston CelticsContender
Key exposed: Nikola Vucevic (expiring, unprotectable), Jordan Walsh, Luka Garza, Max Shulga
71
High
Draft cushion: Mid (2 picks)Raw: 74 → Net: 71
2 picks. Protecting Tatum, Brown, White, Pritchard, Hauser, Queta, Gonzalez, Scheierman. Vucevic is a starting-caliber C who can't be protected. Championship depth means the exposed pool is still useful.
San Antonio SpursRebuilding
Key exposed: Malaki Branham, Keldon Johnson, Carter Bryant, Julian Champagnie
70
High
Draft cushion: Mid (3 picks)Raw: 75 → Net: 70
3 incoming picks. Every exposed player is young and controlled — exactly what expansion teams want. Wembanyama is untouchable. Fox's $60M deal becomes a genuine protection dilemma by 2028.
Cleveland CavaliersContender
Key exposed: Dennis Schroder, Craig Porter Jr., Nae'Qwan Tomlin
70
High
Draft cushion: Mid (3 picks)Raw: 75 → Net: 70
3 picks. Protecting Mitchell, Mobley, Allen, Harden, Strus, Merrill, Tyson, Proctor. Schroder is the notable exposed name. 3 picks provide meaningful cushion.
Philadelphia 76ersFringe
Key exposed: Paul George (~$52M), Cameron Payne, Kyle Lowry
69
High
Draft cushion: Low (1 pick)Raw: 71 → Net: 69
Only 1 pick (owe one to OKC). George's massive contract and injury history is the most uncomfortable protection decision in the league. Protecting Maxey, Embiid, Edgecombe, Broome, Edwards, Walker, Bona, Barlow barely fits 8.
4 incoming firsts. Protecting MPJ, Claxton, Demin, Traore, Clowney, Powell, Saraf, Wolf. Full youth rebuild — exposed players are young and controllable. High pick cushion reduces net pain.
Sacramento KingsFringe
Key exposed: Keegan Murray ($28M, through 2028-29), Keon Ellis, Devin Carter
68
High
Draft cushion: Low (1 pick)Raw: 70 → Net: 68
Only 1 pick. Murray at $28M in 2028 is a genuine expansion target — 26 years old, under contract, useful. With DeRozan/LaVine likely off the books, roster shape is uncertain. Low cushion makes any loss impactful.
Contending rosters face a unique dilemma — they have the deepest talent pools, meaning players beyond the protected 8 are often legitimately useful. The best contenders also happen to be the most vulnerable.
4 incoming firsts including unprotected PHX '27. Protecting Durant, Sengun, A.Thompson, Sheppard, J.Smith, Eason, VanVleet, Finney-Smith still leaves useful veterans on multi-year deals.
Minnesota TimberwolvesContender
Key exposed: Naz Reid ($14M/3yrs), Donte DiVincenzo, Terrence Shannon Jr.
79
High
Draft cushion: Mid (2 picks)Raw: 82 → Net: 79
Only 2 incoming picks. Naz Reid at 3yrs/$42M is one of the best exposed players in the league — a starting-caliber big expansion teams covet. Highest contract exposure among confirmed-contract teams.
Oklahoma City ThunderContender
Key exposed: Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein, Kenrich Williams, Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Nikola Topic
78
High
Draft cushion: High (5 picks)Raw: 86 → Net: 78
5 incoming first-round picks (own '26, LAC '26, own '27, own '28, MIL '28, UTA '28) — best draft cushion in the league. Would expose two starters and multiple elite role players. Every mock expansion draft starts here.
Detroit PistonsContender
Key exposed: Caris LeVert, Paul Reed, Chaz Lanier, Daniss Jenkins
78
High
Draft cushion: Mid (2 picks)Raw: 81 → Net: 78
Only 2 incoming picks. Jenkins is a 23-yr-old starter on a controlled deal — genuinely painful to lose. Protecting Cunningham, Duren, A.Thompson, Holland, Stewart, Robinson, Sasser, Klintman. Limited cushion makes this hurt more.
Dallas MavericksContender
Key exposed: Klay Thompson (expiring), Khris Middleton (expiring), Caleb Martin, AJ Johnson
75
High
Draft cushion: Mid (2 picks)Raw: 78 → Net: 75
2 incoming picks (owe swap to OKC '28). Flagg + core fills 8 slots easily. Klay and Middleton can't be protected as expirees. Caleb Martin on multi-year deal is the real expansion target.
New York KnicksContender
Key exposed: Miles McBride, Tyler Kolek, Pacome Dadiet
74
High
Draft cushion: Low (1 pick)Raw: 76 → Net: 74
Only 1 incoming pick — traded most away. Protecting KAT, Brunson, OG, Bridges, Hart, Robinson + others. 9+ players on massive deals forces the exposure of a useful rotation piece. Lowest draft cushion of any contender.
Indiana PacersContender
Key exposed: T.J. McConnell, Johnny Furphy, Jay Huff, Quenton Jackson
72
High
Draft cushion: Mid (2 picks)Raw: 75 → Net: 72
2 picks. Furphy — 22 years old, wing, cheap deal — is the key expansion target. Protecting Haliburton, Siakam, Zubac, Nembhard, Toppin, Nesmith, Walker, Sheppard. Moderate cushion.
Memphis GrizzliesContender
Key exposed: Brandon Clarke, Vince Williams Jr., Scotty Pippen Jr.
71
High
Draft cushion: Mid (2 picks)Raw: 74 → Net: 71
2 picks. The Grizzlies have 11 players under contract — protecting Morant, JJJ, Bane, Wells, Edey + 3 others leaves real contributors exposed. Clarke is young and cheap. Limited cushion means any loss stings.
Boston CelticsContender
Key exposed: Nikola Vucevic (expiring, unprotectable), Jordan Walsh, Luka Garza, Max Shulga
71
High
Draft cushion: Mid (2 picks)Raw: 74 → Net: 71
2 picks. Protecting Tatum, Brown, White, Pritchard, Hauser, Queta, Gonzalez, Scheierman. Vucevic is a starting-caliber C who can't be protected. Championship depth means the exposed pool is still useful.
Cleveland CavaliersContender
Key exposed: Dennis Schroder, Craig Porter Jr., Nae'Qwan Tomlin
70
High
Draft cushion: Mid (3 picks)Raw: 75 → Net: 70
3 picks. Protecting Mitchell, Mobley, Allen, Harden, Strus, Merrill, Tyson, Proctor. Schroder is the notable exposed name. 3 picks provide meaningful cushion.
Rebuilding teams expose young, cheap, controlled players — exactly the profile expansion teams covet. The real pain depends on draft capital: teams with more picks can absorb a loss; those without are genuinely squeezed.
San Antonio SpursRebuilding
Key exposed: Malaki Branham, Keldon Johnson, Carter Bryant, Julian Champagnie
70
High
Draft cushion: Mid (3 picks)Raw: 75 → Net: 70
3 incoming picks. Every exposed player is young and controlled — exactly what expansion teams want. Wembanyama is untouchable. Fox's $60M deal becomes a genuine protection dilemma by 2028.
4 incoming firsts. Protecting MPJ, Claxton, Demin, Traore, Clowney, Powell, Saraf, Wolf. Full youth rebuild — exposed players are young and controllable. High pick cushion reduces net pain.
New Orleans PelicansRebuilding
Key exposed: Jordan Poole ($35M+, multi-year), Jordan Hawkins, Jose Alvarado
67
Medium
Draft cushion: Mid (2 picks)Raw: 70 → Net: 67
2 picks. Protecting Zion, Murray, Jones, Murphy, Fears, Queen, Missi + 1. Poole at $35M is the uncomfortable exposure — expansion teams take him or use him as a trade chip. Only 2 picks limits recovery.
Washington WizardsRebuilding
Key exposed: Anthony Davis (~$60M by 2028), Jordan Poole ($35M+)
65
Medium
Draft cushion: Mid (2 picks)Raw: 68 → Net: 65
2 picks. Davis is universally cited in mock drafts as a player the Wizards might deliberately expose to shed his contract — could be the expansion draft's most compelling storyline. Sarr and young pieces are the real protected core.
3 picks. Protecting Barnes, Quickley, Poeltl, Barrett, Ingram + young pieces. Losing any developmental asset in a full rebuild hurts. 3 picks provide real replenishment capability.
Charlotte HornetsRebuilding
Key exposed: Coby White (expiring, unprotectable), Josh Green, Tre Mann, Grant Williams
63
Medium
Draft cushion: High (4 picks)Raw: 69 → Net: 63
4 picks including MIA '27 → '28. Protecting LaMelo, Miller, Bridges, Knueppel, Salaun, McNeeley, Diabate, Kalkbrenner. Coby White can't be protected. Healthy cushion softens any loss.
Atlanta HawksRebuilding
Key exposed: Buddy Hield, Gabe Vincent, Corey Kispert
62
Medium
Draft cushion: Mid (3 picks)Raw: 67 → Net: 62
3 picks. Protecting J.Johnson, Okongwu, Kuminga, Alexander-Walker, Daniels, Risacher, Kispert, Newell. Exposed vets skew older — less appetizing for expansion teams. Good cushion reduces net risk.
Portland Trail BlazersRebuilding
Key exposed: Robert Williams III (UFA track), Matisse Thybulle, Blake Wesley
59
Medium
Draft cushion: Mid (3 picks)Raw: 64 → Net: 59
3 picks. Protecting Scoot, Avdija, Sharpe, Clingan, Camara + young pieces. Key issue: Avdija becomes UFA in summer 2028 — can't be protected if not re-signed. Good cushion for a rebuilding team.
3 picks. Protecting Giddey, Ivey, Buzelis, Essengue, Dillingham, Okoro, P.Williams, L.Miller. Key exposed players are mostly UFA-track — can't be protected anyway. Young rebuild core stays intact.
Utah JazzRebuilding
Key exposed: John Collins, Jordan Clarkson, Brice Sensabaugh
54
Low
Draft cushion: High (5 picks)Raw: 62 → Net: 54
5 incoming firsts — tied with OKC for most. Protecting Markkanen, Kessler, C.Williams, Keyonte George, Collier, Bjornsen + 2 others. Exceptional pick cushion severely reduces net pain from any expansion loss.
Teams with 0–1 incoming first-round picks by 2028 have no replenishment path if they lose a player in the expansion draft. These franchises face the highest real-world pain regardless of raw exposure score.
New York KnicksContender
Key exposed: Miles McBride, Tyler Kolek, Pacome Dadiet
74
High
Draft cushion: Low (1 pick)Raw: 76 → Net: 74
Only 1 incoming pick — traded most away. Protecting KAT, Brunson, OG, Bridges, Hart, Robinson + others. 9+ players on massive deals forces the exposure of a useful rotation piece. Lowest draft cushion of any contender.
LA ClippersFringe
Key exposed: Cameron Brown, veteran depth
72
High
Draft cushion: Low (1 pick)Raw: 74 → Net: 72
Only 1 pick (owe picks to OKC). Protecting Kawhi, Garland, Mathurin, Jones Jr., Jackson, Konan Niederhauser, Christie + 1. Low pick count makes any loss more significant.
Philadelphia 76ersFringe
Key exposed: Paul George (~$52M), Cameron Payne, Kyle Lowry
69
High
Draft cushion: Low (1 pick)Raw: 71 → Net: 69
Only 1 pick (owe one to OKC). George's massive contract and injury history is the most uncomfortable protection decision in the league. Protecting Maxey, Embiid, Edgecombe, Broome, Edwards, Walker, Bona, Barlow barely fits 8.
Sacramento KingsFringe
Key exposed: Keegan Murray ($28M, through 2028-29), Keon Ellis, Devin Carter
68
High
Draft cushion: Low (1 pick)Raw: 70 → Net: 68
Only 1 pick. Murray at $28M in 2028 is a genuine expansion target — 26 years old, under contract, useful. With DeRozan/LaVine likely off the books, roster shape is uncertain. Low cushion makes any loss impactful.
Milwaukee BucksFringe
Key exposed: Bobby Portis Jr., AJ Johnson, Taurean Prince
65
Medium
Draft cushion: Low (1 pick)Raw: 67 → Net: 65
Only 1 pick (owe MIL '28 to OKC). Protecting Giannis, Lillard, Lopez + others. AJ Johnson is the young controllable asset expansion teams want. Very limited cushion means any loss hurts the rotation.
1 pick only (owe unprotected '27 to Houston). Protecting Booker, Beal (if kept), and young pieces. Beal's $46M player option in 2028 is a wildcard. Very limited cushion with significant contract exposure.
LA LakersFringe
Key exposed: LeBron James (UFA — unprotectable), Marcus Smart, Jarred Vanderbilt
60
Medium
Draft cushion: Low (1 pick)Raw: 62 → Net: 60
Only 1 pick (owe picks to UTA '27 and DAL '29). LeBron is UFA and can't be protected. Protecting Luka, Reaves, Ayton, Knecht, Thiero, LaRavia, Vanderbilt, Bronny. Post-LeBron transition with minimum pick cushion.
How the NBA Expansion Draft Works
Based on the rules used in the last expansion draft -- the 2004 Charlotte Bobcats -- each existing team is allowed to protect up to eight players on their roster. Unrestricted free agents are automatically excluded from the draft pool. Every team must leave at least one player exposed, even if they have fewer than eight players under contract. Crucially, each existing franchise can lose no more than one player total per expansion team, meaning once Seattle or Las Vegas selects from your roster, your remaining players are off the board for that team.
With two expansion teams entering simultaneously and each needing to select roughly 14 to 15 players, the math tells you that nearly every franchise in the league will lose somebody. The question is how much that somebody matters.
The Oklahoma City Thunder: Most Exposed Team in the League
No franchise faces a more uncomfortable expansion draft than the Oklahoma City Thunder, and it's entirely a product of their own success. OKC's depth is so extraordinary that even after protecting their Big Three of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren -- along with key contributors like Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Nikola Topic -- the team would still be leaving rotation-level players exposed. Lu Dort and Jaylin Williams are legitimate NBA starters. Isaiah Joe is one of the most accurate three-point shooters in the league.
The Thunder's saving grace is their unmatched draft capital. Oklahoma City holds three first-round picks arriving in 2028 alone, including picks from Milwaukee and Utah. They can absorb losing a player in ways almost no other team can. Still, the quality of their exposed pool makes them the expansion draft's most compelling starting point -- every mock draft starts with OKC, and for good reason.
The Knicks and 76ers: Contract Exposure Without a Safety Net
While Oklahoma City leads in raw depth drop-off, the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers represent a different kind of danger: massive salary commitments outside the protection window combined with almost no draft capital to fall back on.
The Knicks have traded away most of their future first-round picks to build their current contender, leaving them with minimal replenishment options. With nine players earning significant salaries, they're forced to expose useful rotation pieces with virtually no cushion.
Philadelphia's situation is starker. Paul George's contract, projected at roughly $52 million for the 2027-28 season, is the league's most uncomfortable protection decision. The Sixers protect Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, and their young core in eight slots -- which barely fits. With only one incoming first-round pick, any loss stings disproportionately. The 76ers have the highest contract exposure score of any team in the league.
Draft Capital Changes Everything
One underappreciated variable in expansion draft vulnerability is incoming draft capital. Teams with more first-round picks arriving by 2028 can replace a lost player through the draft; teams without picks are genuinely squeezed. The Utah Jazz, despite being a full rebuilding team, rank far less vulnerable than their raw roster might suggest -- they hold five incoming first-rounders, including an unprotected Phoenix pick. Losing John Collins to an expansion team barely registers when a lottery pick arrives to replace him.
By contrast, the Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks each hold only one incoming first-rounder, meaning any expansion draft loss directly weakens a roster with no replenishment path built in.
Contenders vs. Rebuilders: Two Very Different Problems
The expansion draft creates opposite dilemmas depending on where a franchise sits in its competitive cycle. Contenders like the Detroit Pistons, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Memphis Grizzlies have too many good players for eight protection slots — the exposed pool contains genuinely useful pieces on multi-year deals. Rebuilding teams like the San Antonio Spurs and Charlotte Hornets face a different problem: their exposed pool is young, cheap, and controlled — exactly what expansion teams covet most.
Oklahoma City Thunder, and it's entirely a product of their own success. OKC's depth is so extraordinary that even after protecting their Big Three of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren -- along with key contributors like Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Nikola Topic -- the team would still be leaving rotation-level players exposed. Lu Dort and Jaylin Williams are legitimate NBA starters. Isaiah Joe is one of the most accurate three-point shooters in the league.
Utah Jazz, despite being a full rebuilding team, rank far less vulnerable than their raw roster might suggest -- they hold five incoming first-rounders, including an unprotected Phoenix pick. Losing John Collins to an expansion team barely registers when a lottery pick arrives to replace him.
