NBA Draft Kit: Point Guard Tiers

NBA Draft Kit: Point Guard Tiers

This article is part of our NBA Draft Kit series.

READ: Center Tiers
READ: Power Forward Tiers
READ: Small Forward Tiers
READ: Shooting Guard Tiers

With a hectic NBA offseason only just beginning to wind down, the landscape of the league looks considerably different than this time last year. All-Star players shifted teams and conferences in shocking numbers this offseason, both through trades and free agency. The point guard position was no exception to the madness, with notable stars like Chris Paul switching teams and fantasy studs like Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Isaiah Thomas adding big-name teammates.

Despite the eventful summer, this year's point guard rankings should look familiar to fantasy basketball veterans. While rosters around the NBA may have seen shake-ups, the deepest position in fantasy basketball remains as valuable as ever.

Owners looking to prioritize commodities like assists and steals will want to pay especially close attention to the position. With the NBA becoming increasingly perimeter-oriented, stocking up on elite floor generals is a strategy worth considering when preparing for a draft. However, it's also worth noting that there is no absence of talent at the point guard slot. While it may be tempting to fill the spot with a first-round talent like Curry or Westbrook, strong options at point guard will be available well into the middle rounds of most drafts.

Tier I: Elite of the Elite

Stephen Curry, Warriors
Russell Westbrook, Thunder
James Harden, Rockets

The top tier of fantasy point guards should come as no surprise to returning owners.

READ: Center Tiers
READ: Power Forward Tiers
READ: Small Forward Tiers
READ: Shooting Guard Tiers

With a hectic NBA offseason only just beginning to wind down, the landscape of the league looks considerably different than this time last year. All-Star players shifted teams and conferences in shocking numbers this offseason, both through trades and free agency. The point guard position was no exception to the madness, with notable stars like Chris Paul switching teams and fantasy studs like Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Isaiah Thomas adding big-name teammates.

Despite the eventful summer, this year's point guard rankings should look familiar to fantasy basketball veterans. While rosters around the NBA may have seen shake-ups, the deepest position in fantasy basketball remains as valuable as ever.

Owners looking to prioritize commodities like assists and steals will want to pay especially close attention to the position. With the NBA becoming increasingly perimeter-oriented, stocking up on elite floor generals is a strategy worth considering when preparing for a draft. However, it's also worth noting that there is no absence of talent at the point guard slot. While it may be tempting to fill the spot with a first-round talent like Curry or Westbrook, strong options at point guard will be available well into the middle rounds of most drafts.

Tier I: Elite of the Elite

Stephen Curry, Warriors
Russell Westbrook, Thunder
James Harden, Rockets

The top tier of fantasy point guards should come as no surprise to returning owners. Curry, a two-time MVP and incumbent "best shooter in the world," has firmly established himself as a consistent upper-echelon fantasy option after four consecutive All-NBA seasons. With the Warriors appearing poised to maintain their dominance heading into next season, Curry's historic shooting volume and efficiency are likely here to stay. Though the presence of Kevin Durant makes it unlikely that Curry ever matches his unparalleled 2015-16 offensive onslaught again, last season proved that Curry can still maintain elite fantasy production while surrounded by three of the NBA's best players.

Last year, it wasn't Durant's new point guard who topped fantasy rankings, but his old one. Westbrook made history by averaging a triple-double and taking home his first MVP trophy. His production is likely to take a dip this season thanks to the Thunder adding another superstar in Paul George. However, Westbrook has a demonstrated history of producing elite-level value while playing alongside a certain top-tier wing. Though another triple-double average is highly improbable, Westbrook's place among the league's top fantasy point guards is safe as ever.

Harden is perhaps the hardest of the big three point guards to project. He'll go from single-handedly commanding Houston's offense to sharing the ball with a fellow superstar point guard. Though Mike D'Antoni successfully turned Harden into the league's top assist man last season, playing next to a walking double-double in Chris Paul is likely to diminish Harden's overall touches and, as a result, his assist production. Still, playing with Paul should, in theory at least, open up the floor for Harden and allow him to improve on his already-historic scoring efficiency.

Tier II: Not Far Behind

John Wall, Wizards
Chris Paul, Clippers
Isaiah Thomas, Cavaliers
Kyle Lowry, Raptors
Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers
Kyrie Irving, Celtics

The point guard position is nothing if not deep. If you find yourself unable to snag a superstar in the first round, it shouldn't be difficult to nab a nice consolation prize with one of your next two picks.

The other half of the Rockets backcourt is near the top of the second tier of elite point guards. Chris Paul has averaged at least 16 points and 9 assists in every season since 2007-08 and has led the league in steals six times during that span. While Harden will be perhaps the most ball-dominant partner Paul has ever teamed with, the veteran floor general should fare just fine in Mike D'Antoni's uptempo offense.

Wall, meanwhile, seems like a lower-risk choice as he looks to build on the best statistical season of his career. The 26-year-old notched career highs in points per game (23.1) and assists per game (10.7) in 2016-17, earning him a fifth-place spot on some voters' MVP ballots. In category-based leagues, Wall may not be quite as enticing, as his turnover and three-point numbers leave something to be desired. Still, he provides assists and steals at a rate matched by only a handful of players.

The rest of the second tier consists primarily of the elite crop of score-first point guards. Lillard offers the most security of the bunch. He's not only a steady fantasy producer but has also missed only 14 games throughout his five-year career. Lowry, on the other hand, is a great player but turns 32 in March and suffered a substantial injury that cost him more than a quarter of last season.

Thomas, who's coming off of the best season of his career, has question marks of his own. The star point guard is working back from a hip injury, and will have to adjust to a new environment playing alongside LeBron James. That could equate to fewer touches, though James and Irving were both able to produce at All-Star levels over the last three seasons.

On the other side of the blockbuster trade, Irving carries question marks of his own. Durability and defensive issues have plagued Irving in the past, though he'll enter a situation in Boston where he'll have an opportunity to operate as the primary creator. He often filled that role in Cleveland, but without the spectre of LeBron James, Irving will be depended upon even more heavily for scoring and playmaking.

Tier III: High-End Starters

Mike Conley, Grizzlies
Kemba Walker, Hornets
Jeff Teague, Timberwolves
George Hill, Kings
Goran Dragic, Heat
D'Angelo Russell, Nets
Eric Bledsoe, Suns
Jrue Holiday, Pelicans
Dennis Schroder, Hawks

With the wealth of top-notch fantasy options at the point guard spot, it may be difficult to make it this far in the draft without having already chosen one. Still, this tier of point guards could provide exceptional value later on in the draft.

Conley and Walker are often forgotten due to the bevy of elite point guards in the league. But with both coming off career years, the duo should be on every fantasy owner's radar. Walker, in particular, could be poised to blossom this upcoming season. Still just 27, Walker increased his scoring to very a respectable 23.2 points per game last season, up from 20.9 in 2015-16, and shot a career-best 39.9 percent from three. With the Hornets making moves to acquire veteran center Dwight Howard and high-upside rookie Malik Monk, Walker could see his assist numbers tick upward thanks to what should be a deeper supporting cast.

Two of the bigger boom-or-bust fantasy commodities also find themselves in this tier. Eric Bledsoe and Jrue Holiday are two relatively young point guards who never fail to produce - when healthy, that is. Each has battled multiple major injuries over the course of the past four seasons. Holiday will also have to adjust to perhaps playing off-ball next to Rajon Rondo. Just a 32.5 percent shooter in catch-and-shoot situations last season, it remains to be seen whether Holiday will flourish or fail playing alongside a ball-dominant point guard.

Dennis Schroeder and D'Angelo Russell are two rising stars in prime position to break out this season. While both provided decent value last season, their lackluster supporting casts heading into 2017-18 could result in ramped-up usage rates. Schroder has the clearest path to a good-team/bad-stats season, while Russell may have to earn his way to the top of the Nets' depth chart.

Tier IV: Mid-Tier Starters and Unknowns

Reggie Jackson, Pistons
Ricky Rubio, Jazz
Malcolm Brogdon, Bucks
Derrick Rose, Cavaliers
Markelle Fultz, 76ers
Lonzo Ball, Lakers
Rajon Rondo, Pelicans
Jeremy Lin, Nets
Dennis Smith Jr., Mavericks
Jamal Murray, Nuggets

At this point in the draft, it's unlikely you'll find a top-quality point guard option. The players who remain in this tier are either mid-level veteran starters or rookies with high levels of uncertainty.

Players like Jackson and Rose will post the occasional scoring outburst, but their limited contributions in other areas make them poor options for category-based leagues.
Ditto for Rondo, who can still drop dimes at a high rate but will hit few three-pointers and shoot poorly from the field and the free-throw line.

On the rookie front, point guard is an intriguing position. Ball commanded plenty of hype after an impressive Summer League showing and should be a consistent source of assists and rebounds, but owners will also want to keep a sharp eye on Smith, Jr. The electrifying athlete is expected to be handed the keys to the offense as the Mavericks attempt to bridge the gap between the end of the Dirk Nowitzki era and the start of a mini-rebuild. Of course, Fultz is about as safe a choice as a 19-year-old can be, but he enters a unique situation in Philadelphia as arguably the second-best rookie on his own team.

Tier V: Low-End Starters

Frank Ntilinka, Knicks
Tony Parker, Spurs
De'Aaron Fox, Kings
Patrick Beverley, Clippers
Ish Smith, Pistons
Elfrid Payton, Magic
Darren Collison, Pacers
Jordan Clarkson, Lakers
Emmanuel Mudiay, Nuggets

Late-round point guard options are somewhat sparse, with rookies providing some of the best options as high-upside guys who could potentially step into impact roles. Fox could very well be one of those players, but his fantasy stock is a bit cloudier after the Kings added veteran George Hill in free agency.

Ntilinka, meanwhile, is difficult to project, as his defense-first skill set may or may not translate to immediate statistical production at the NBA level. After seeing rookie defensive savant Kris Dunn end up as a fantasy dud last year, some owners may understandably be skeptical about taking another young, defensive-minded point guard. Still, Ntilinka is an intriguing late-round gamble and should see plenty of minutes while the Knicks continue to rebuild.

Collison and Beverly are two established point guards unlikely to amaze with their statistical production. Even so, both are reliable vets who will have a good chance to start for their respective new teams. Owners looking for stability in later rounds should have both players on their short lists.

Tier VI: Late-Round Fliers

Marcus Smart, Celtics
Milos Teodosic, Clippers
Dejounte Murray, Spurs
Kris Dunn, Bulls
Michael Carter-Williams, Hornets
Jerian Grant, Bulls
Patty Mills, Spurs
T.J. McConnell, 76ers
Cory Joseph, Pacers

Most of these players should go undrafted and may simply be worth targeting for a waiver pickup. Still, longtime European star Milos Teodosic, who will be stepping into the NBA for the first time, carries some intrigue after leading the EuroLeague in assists last season. As does Joseph, who will compete with Darren Collison for the starting job in Indiana.

READ MORE:
2017-18 Center Tiers
2017-18 Power Forward Tiers
2017-18 Small Forward Tiers
2017-18 Shooting Guard Tiers

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Oscar Heanue
Oscar Heanue wrote about the NBA for RotoWire beginning in 2015. Some of his work has appeared on NBA.com and CBS Sports. Oscar has also had been published on NBAdraft.net.
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