There are two Game 7s for Sunday's FanDuel main slate with the winners of those matchups facing each other in the Eastern Conference semifinals. Orlando has made things difficult for the East's No. 1 seed, and Toronto staved off elimination with a game-winning shot by RJ Barrett in overtime. We should see more drama unfold on Sunday, and we're hoping to be blowout-free to maximize DFS production.
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Vegas presumes the higher seeds will win. The bookmakers believe the highest production will come from TOR/CLE, though a subpar night from Orlando's defense could flip that script. I typically look closer at these numbers to break ties in tough decisions, but we need to clear out Toronto's injury spot to finalize our construction.
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NBA Injuries Today
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report. Below are some of the most recent and relevant injuries for Sunday.
ORL Franz Wagner (calf) - OUT
We saw Jamal Cain in a spot start, but he didn't produce enough to warrant an endorsement. It's hard to find consistency beyond the usual first unit, though we'll try to squeeze something out later in the article.
TOR Immanuel Quickley (hamstring) - OUT
TOR Brandon Ingram (heel) - QUESTIONABLE
This is bad news for Toronto as Ingram was seen in a walking boot and may not make it for Game 7. The Raptors managed to win without him on Friday, and it was Ja'Kobe Walter ($5,400), Jamal Shead ($4,800) and Collin Murray-Boyles ($6,300) who boosted their production to fill the gaps. We'll need to wait to confirm Ingram's absence, yet there's value to be had. Keep tabs on the updates as you'll likely need to use one of these pivots.
Elite Players
Cade Cunningham ($10,800) and Scottie Barnes ($10,300) headline the slim player pool at five-figure salaries. Both registered well above 5x value in their respective Game 6 matchups. Looking back through the quarterfinals, Barnes posted the highest number while Cunningham's floor has been slightly more consistent. I expect Barnes to carry a massive load without Ingram, so I'll lean heavily toward him if Ingram misses out. I want to get both involved, but we'll need to unlock significant value to make that option viable.
We only have four remaining above $8,000, and I think Evan Mobley ($8,000) offers the best shot at beating 5x value. Paolo Banchero's ($9,400) floor scares me a bit despite posting some of the highest totals of the quarterfinals while his salary is too high if he ends up with a performance that drops to 40 FDFPs. Thinking about Donovan Mitchell ($8,600) and James Harden ($8,500) is partly dependent on how we proceed with Cunningham. Both have settled into the 45-FDFP range the past two games, making both salaries viable in an elimination game.
Expected Chalk, Mid-Range Targets and Value Plays
RJ Barrett, TOR ($7,800) vs. CLE
Barrett's OT game-winner is basketball's best shot this year, ranking up there with UConn's Braylon Mullins' Final Four decider. Looking past the heroics, Barrett makes a lot of sense especially if Ingram is unable to play. I can't see a scenario where he doesn't make a run at 5x value, though he'll need to get close to 40 FDFPs. Barrett has only exceeded that number twice this season and it may be enough cause to fade him, but getting involved in Toronto is justified if Barnes becomes unattainable.
Tobias Harris, DET ($7,000) vs. ORL
A $7,000 salary for Harris would typically be a fade at first glance, yet that's the kind of player bias one needs to avoid during lineup construction. His numbers against Orlando show a consistent pattern of success with solid rebound totals supporting an above-average shot volume. The Pistons have let Harris take the high-percentage shots as they come up, but his harder looks have also been dropping.
Jarrett Allen, CLE ($6,000) vs. TOR
Allen bounced back to life during Game 6, though his tepid showing the previous outing is cause for concern. I'm not in the market for a Mobley/Allen stack, but Allen comes in a little cheaper than Murray-Boyles and boasts plenty of clutch postseason experience. The Toronto injury scenario will influence how I proceed with Cleveland, yet I'll take Allen on the assumption Ingram won't be there to provide support.
Anthony Black, ORL ($5,100) @ DET
To generate a balanced lineup, Black is one of the player we need to take a chance on. His results this series have been a mixed bag, and even Franz Wagner's absence hasn't provided enough direct evidence Black can provide enough consistency to be viable. We still can't avoid shot-taking in the $5k range if we want elite production up top.
Duncan Robinson ($4,300) DET vs. ORL
If Robinson gets hot, he should have no problem getting over 5x. His sharpshooting was on point Friday with four three-pointers while delivering above-average numbers in two of six against the Magic. And like Black, Robinson is one of those budget performers we need to offset heavy spending.
Dart Throw: Max Strus, CLE ($3,900) vs. TOR
Strus would have been perfect in FanDuel's old format where the lowest score is dropped, but we now have to depend on upside to use him. Players like Strus, Robinson, and Black will allow me to check off most of my wish list, though we need to see something resembling his last two games. We also have Dean Wade at the same salary. And while his floor is lower, he's been steadier.
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