Next to the preseason, you won't find a more difficult time to play NBA DFS than the final week of the regular season. Every year, the season finale is DFS chaos in its purest form, as playoff scenarios, tanking teams and two-way surprises litter the landscape. There's no need to look up all of the playoff scenarios - I've done the work for you. Curious about teams with nothing to play for? I've got you covered there. Let's get started!
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While I offer no guarantees, past season finales suggest that teams with nothing on the line will limit their starters, or eliminate them altogether. Either the teams are out of the playoffs, or they are locked into a playoff seed. Our strategy for the evening - spend up on players who have motivations to play, and balance with values that become available on teams with nothing at stake.
In the Eastern Conference, seeds 5-10 will be decided on Sunday. Atlanta, Toronto, Orlando, Philadelphia, and Miami are the teams with something to play for. Detroit, Boston, New York and Cleveland are locked into their playoff seeds.
In the Western Conference, only four teams have seeding advancements on the line. Denver, the Los Angeles Lakers, the Los Angeles Clippers, and Portland will all be fighting for something. Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Houston, Minnesota, Phoenix and Golden State are locked in and have no need to play their starters.
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NBA Injuries Today
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report. Below are some of the most recent and relevant injuries for Sunday. This section is less an injury report than it is a list of inactives based on the scenarios I described. This list will likely expand, so it's of the utmost importance to double-check lineups as they become available. I'll also mention pivots in this section, and unless I say otherwise, they should all be considered as potential targets for your lineup builds.
BOS - Starting Lineup OUT
The Celtics will keep starters and a few other notables out. Among the crew of backups joining the first unit, Jordan Walsh ($4,100), Luka Garza ($4,100) and Baylor Scheierman ($4,000) are my favorite picks.
WAS - Several absences
Will Riley ($6,300) will be the only recent starter on the floor for the Wizards, and the rest of the first unit will consist of replacements. Julian Reese ($7,000) is viable at center, and I would also consider Jamir Watkins ($5,000) and Bub Carrington ($4,900).
CLE - Starting Lineup OUT
Cleveland will also bench the first unit for the finale. Jaylon Tyson ($4,200) and Nae'Qwan Tomlin ($3,900) are my favorite pivots on the squad.
DET Jalen Duren (knee) - OUT
More absences may pop up for the Pistons later in the day, but we can confirm that Duren will miss. Paul Reed ($4,600) is usually the biggest beneficiary when Duren is absent.
IND - Several absences
The Pacers will be a frustrating team to utilize tonight. There's definite blowout potential against the Pistons, and the mixture of Out and Questionable tags forces us to make guesses about the top producers. Quenton Jackson ($5,000) is likely my most confident pivot.
ATL - Several question marks
Right now, the entire first unit holds questionable tags. Since the Hawks could fall to the sixth seed if they tank the game, it seems unlikely that all of these tags will hold. Nickeil Alexander-Walker (toe), Onyeka Okongwu (finger) and Dyson Daniels (toe) have legitimate injuries, but my instinct is that Atlanta will play as many regulars as they can. Pay close attention to Atlanta as the day moves forward. If the tags disappear, you'll want to use at least two Atlanta starters.
NYK - Most starters will sit
Mikal Bridges ($5,800) is the only current first-unit player without some sort of designation, but he could also be a scratch before the day is out. I favor Jose Alvarado ($4,200) and Jeremy Sochan ($3,700) as the best pivots.
MIL - Most starters will be sidelined
Right now, Ousmane Dieng ($6,300) is the only usual starter without an injury tag. I don't mind Pete Nance ($4,300) if he suits up, and I'll opt for Jericho Sims ($5,100) with Joel Embiid likely out of commission tonight.
PHI Joel Embiid (abdomen) - OUT
The Sixers will rest Embiid for the finale. Adem Bona ($4,000) should get the start in his absence.
BKN - All starters benched
Malachi Smith ($5,100) is my favorite Brooklyn pivot. Tyson Etienne ($4,700) and Trevon Scott ($5,600) are additional quality options.
Elite Players
Jalen Johnson ($10,700) and Tyrese Maxey ($10,300) sit atop the player pool with five-figure salaries. The Sixers have the most at stake, as they could fall into the play-in bracket if the chips fall against them. Since I'm unsure about Atlanta's plans for Johnson, Maxey is my top option in this range. I will gladly consider Johnson if his tag clears up, however.
The $9k tier consists of four players, and all of them are on squads with something to play for. Scottie Barnes ($9,800) and LaMelo Ball ($9,200) will face off against depleted lineups, and both have a chance to go off tonight.
We only have two players at the $8k level, and Paul George ($8,200) is a better pick over Cade Cunningham given a lack of incentive to play Detroit elites.
Also consider: Paolo Banchero, ORL ($9,200) @ BOS
Expected Chalk, Mid-Range Options and Value Plays
Use my injury section as your primary source for value options. I will mention a couple of bargains that slipped through the cracks, but make your budget pivots with the information I've already given you.
VJ Edgecombe, PHI ($7,400) vs. MIL
I am good with endorsing every Philly starter tonight, as they'll put all their chips in the middle in an effort to stay out of the play-in. Maxey and George have already earned a mention, but I'll also extend endorsements to Edgecombe and Kelly Oubre ($5,800). I'll ideally have two or three 76ers in most of my lineups.
Brandon Miller, CHA ($7,400) @ NYK
If you elect to fade Ball, Miller is an excellent path to take against the depleted Knicks. I wouldn't rule out a Ball/Miller stack, but I want to leave space for additional options at the guard position. Luckily, Miller gives us SF eligibility, so he's a bit more flexible than his Charlotte counterpart.
Brandon Ingram, TOR ($7,400) vs. BKN
The matchup against a weak opponent gives the Raptors an excellent shot at avoiding the play-in bracket. Like Philly, Toronto has a lot at stake, so I'll add Ingram to the aforementioned Barnes as a quality option for tonight's slate. RJ Barrett's availability is unclear, but I expect Ingram to finish as the first or second-best producer.
Max Strus, CLE ($4,700) vs. WAS
While I've already mentioned two quality pivots for Cleveland, Strus' pure shooting stroke has acted as a quality fill-in for the Cavs throughout the years. I expect him to start and add veteran leadership and experience to a young list of replacements. Craig Porter ($4,300) also deserves a mention.
Jalen Wilson, BKN ($4,300) @ TOR
Since the Nets have already given Wilson plenty of opportunities, there's a possibility that the team will keep digging deeper and play other guard options. Still, this salary is too good to pass up. Although I like other budget Brooklyn guards like Malachi Smith a bit more, Wilson should also be a decent option to consider.
As I do my final number crunch, the possibility of Atlanta elite involvement continues to crop up. Keep Johnson, Alexander-Walker, and CJ McCollum in your sights, as they'll be able to fill several gaps if they play.
