This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Monday's two-game slate begins at 7:30 p.m. EDT, and FanDuel is upping its usual guarantee to $300,000 for the top contest. The $15 NBA Clutch Shot will offer $100k to first place.
SLATE OVERVIEW
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Both games on the slate aren't projected with very high totals, although the MEM/LAL game has a slightly higher over/under. I like targets in that contest a bit more as a result, but we have reliable options across all four teams. The top news story for Monday involves an MVP candidate's injury scenario.
INJURIES
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MIL Giannis Antetokounmpo (back) - QUESTIONABLE
Giannis' injury casts a wide shadow over the player pool, and his status will likely be a game-time decision. Luckily, the Bucks play the early game, so his status should crystallize before game lock. If he doesn't go, Bobby Portis ($6,800) has done an excellent job in relief and could still have value if Giannis is active.
MIA Jimmy Butler (glute) - QUESTIONABLE
MIA Bam Adebayo (hamstring) - PROBABLE
Butler and Adebayo have played through these injuries, and the Heat will need both players. The team is thinner with Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo out for the remainder of the playoffs, and I am leaning toward making Jimmy and Bam active contributors in the player pool.
ELITE PLAYERS
Due to the slim player pool, I'll extend our elite category down to $7,000.
Of the four players available at $10k and above, LeBron James ($10,700) will garner the most exposure in my lineup builds. Anthony Davis at $12,000 is a bit too pricey for me and even though Giannis may play, his back issues make his $11,900 salary too expensive to mess with. I think Davis can beat 5x value, but I don't think it would make up for the sacrifices we'd need to make elsewhere on the roster to fit him in.
We have some decisions to make right away in the guard positions, and I like Jrue Holiday ($8,900), especially when compared against Ja Morant's prohibitively high salary of $10,500. There are enough budget calls at guard to offset Holiday's cap hit.
I'm assuming Jimmy Butler ($9,600) will play, but I have some doubts about him hitting 5x value. After smashing value in Game 1, he's fallen well short in the past two games. That fact alone may make him less popular, so he isn't a bad tournament call.
Khris Middleton ($7,700) has a shot to meet 5x value, and he would certainly get a boost from me if Antetokounmpo is out again. The elite category rounds out with Desmond Bane ($7,100), who has consistently lived up to his salary so far in the postseason.
EXPECTED CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS
Austin Reaves, LAL ($5,800) vs. MEM
D'Angelo Russell ($6,300) is tempting, but the two players' quarterfinal stats are almost identical. Both guys have been clutch for the Lakers and are almost interchangeable in DFS at the moment, though there's an explosiveness factor with Russell that could materialize at any moment. James and Davis have a lot of trust in Reaves, and he's quickly become LeBron's favorite assist target. I like Reaves for all formats and Russell in tournaments.
Xavier Tillman, MEM ($5,700) @ LAL
If you aren't going to spend up with someone like Jaren Jackson ($8,500) or Bam Adebayo ($7,800), Tillman's a great option to fill your center spot. Anthony Davis is an imposing challenge, but Tillman hasn't looked half-bad against AD, and he actually out-rebounded him in Game 2. While I'm not opposed to Jackson, and Adebayo is at a good salary, you'll need to pivot lower if you make a couple of elite calls before filling the center spot.
Caleb Martin, MIA ($4,600) vs. MIL
This salary is almost unfair for Martin, and it won't surprise me at all to see him as one of the most popular players on the slate. Although some may find Max Strus at $4,600 more alluring, his usage has faded after a respectable Game 1 showing. Martin was rock solid in Game 2 and Game 3, and I expect a value-beating result in this spot.
Kyle Lowry, MIA ($4,500) vs. MIL
Lowry and Gabe Vincent ($4,100) are never on the floor together, so this is basically the judgment call you're making if you're looking for guard value in this game. Considering Miami's convincing win and Lowry's increased production, there's a good chance the veteran could stay on the floor once the second unit steps in. Only a red-hot start from Vincent will keep that from happening, and I think that's less likely than another respectable showing from Lowry. He's not without risk, but at this salary, he don't need much production to make him worthwhile.
Also consider: Rui Hachimura, LAL ($5,300) vs. MEM
