The play-ins are over, and it's time to get moving. We have four first-round matchups on tap with an early start time of 1:00 p.m. EDT. We go from the most difficult week in NBA DFS to a remarkably easier period. Most teams' rosters are locked in, and we'll have the luxury of recent data later. The first game of each series will tell us a lot, and I'll do my best to find the best salary combination to maximize value while staying under the salary cap.
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FanDuel Main Slate NBA Games Today
Sunday's projected totals look meager compared to Saturday night's playoff slate, but I think it's reasonable to end up ahead if you took the over in all of these contests. Vegas is bullish on Boston and Oklahoma City, but they're giving Orlando and Portland a shot. We are pretty evenly spread with our selections across all four games.
For the latest spreads and over-unders, visit RotoWire's NBA Odds page. There, you can also find player props, futures, picks, articles and sportsbook bonus codes.
NBA Injuries Today
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report. Below are some of the most recent and relevant injuries for Sunday.
PHI Joel Embiid (abdomen) - OUT
Embiid is still recovering from surgery and will be out for at least the next few games. Andre Drummond ($6,000) recorded a double-double against the Magic and saw more minutes than Adem Bona.
PHX Grayson Allen (hamstring) - QUESTIONABLE
PHX Mark Williams (foot) - QUESTIONABLE
Williams and Allen both sat for Friday's play-in game. The Suns played well despite lacking their services, so they may hold them out for another game. Oso Ighodaro ($4,000) and Royce O'Neale ($4,000) would be backup pivots receiving more time if the injury tags hold.
Elite Players
We have two players with five-figure salaries atop Sunday's player pool, and the duo should be no surprise. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,100) and Victor Wembanyama ($11,900) are destined for big totals, but I think the game fits SGA better. Although Wemby recorded two double-doubles over four games against the Thunder this season, only one of them can be considered an elite showing. The other two games produced below-average results.
The $9k tier consists of five players, and it looks like Tyrese Maxey ($9,700) could be in line for another super total against the Celtics. Maxey came up with sizzling totals in two out of three games against Boston this season. Cade Cunningham ($9,600) could also shine in the national spotlight, and he will be motivated to power a win, given the lack of respect the Pistons have gotten in the media. Although tempting, I'm not sold on Jayson Tatum ($9,400) and Jaylen Brown ($9,300). The salaries are a little too high to warrant consideration despite some recent fantasy point totals that realized more than 5x value.
Devin Booker's ($8,800) totals were pretty good against the Thunder this season, but the Thunder will now be forced to contend with Jalen Green ($7,300) for the first time. Green played lights out in both games against the Warriors, and going with Green at this discount is the smarter play.
Also consider: Paolo Banchero, ORL ($8,500) @ DET
Expected Chalk, Midrange Options and Value Plays
Jalen Duren, DET ($7,800) vs. ORL
Duren's record against the Magic was solid during the regular season, and I think he has the skills to hold down the fort against Wendell Carter. He may have to contend with Banchero from time to time, but Orlando's elite big man may have to deal with Tobias Harris ($5,200) if he gets hot.
Jalen Williams, OKC ($7,000) vs. PHX
Although Williams struggled with injuries throughout the season, he was active for two games against the Suns, recording totals of 23 and 28 points. If a few extra rebounds carom his way, he should be able to produce a good fantasy total alongside a solid scoring performance. I'm not bothered by an SGA stack.
De'Aaron Fox ($7,000) or Stephon Castle ($7,200), SAS vs. POR
We'll revisit the quandary we faced all season, as it was a toss-up between the two elites every time both players were active. Fox began to catch up to his teammate toward the end of the season, but it's hard to deny Castle's special skill set. I favor Fox due to his splendid stat lines against Portland, but Castle was hindered by injury and put a huge load on Fox's shoulders in all but one of those games. It's why the duo is more of a toss-up than the numbers might indicate.
VJ Edgecombe, PHI ($6,800) @ BOS
The talented rookie was not intimidated by the green and gold this season, as he recorded some of his best totals against the second-seeded Celtics. The re-emergence of Paul George hasn't affected Edgecombe's production, and I think he'll be able to find success again.
Derrick White, BOS ($6,700) vs. PHI
White might not carry the explosive potential of Tatum or Brown, but he displayed a stellar floor and a couple of above-average results against the Sixers this season. The salary is excellent and too good to pass up. He'll be in the majority of my lineups tonight.
Jrue Holiday, POR ($6,500) @ SAS
I doubt Holiday envisioned a playoff berth upon joining the Trail Blazers, but that's why we play the games. I confess to carrying a bit of Portland bias (a DFS no-no), but I'm silently rooting for them against the Spurs. Holiday will need to catch lightning in a bottle a couple of times to make it happen, and although I think Deni Avdija (it's Avdi-HA, Amazon Prime) is ready for the moment, his high salary forced me to make other arrangements.
Don't worry - I'm aware that most of my endorsements have stuck around the FanDuel median. Here's a list of budget options to accompany the aforementioned injury pivots.
- PG Scoot Henderson, POR ($4,100)
- SG Payton Pritchard, BOS ($5,500)
- SF Jordan Goodwin, PHX ($4,600)
- PF Kelly Oubre, PHI ($5,300)
- C Neemias Queta, BOS ($5,100), with Nikola Vucevic ($4,700) as a wild-card dart throw
Risk-Reward: Dillon Brooks, PHX ($5,600)
