This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We have a very compact two-game slate Thursday night, one that features a pair of pretty solid favorites. One big-name absence is already confirmed, and another prominent player is likely to miss. However, we still have a serviceable player pool to work with, including several solid value candidates.
Slate Overview
For the latest spreads and over-unders, visit RotoWire's NBA Odds page. There, you can also find player props, futures, picks articles and sportsbook bonus codes.
The Pelicans and Jazz are favored by 6.5 and 8.5 points, respectively, as of early Thursday. These numbers are elevated but not to the point where we're concerned about outright blowouts where minutes will be potentially compromised for high-salary players. Moreover, the projected totals of 228 and 229.5 points in those contests are certainly appealing from a DFS perspective.
Injury Situations to Monitor
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report.
Zion Williamson, NOP (COVID-19 protocols): OUT
Williamson's absence will naturally open up plenty of usage in the rest of the starting five and will create a starting opportunity for Naji Marshall at power forward.
Kristaps Porzingis, WAS (illness): QUESTIONABLE
If Porzingis were to sit out, Daniel Gafford would step into the starting five, and the usage for the likes of Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma would be elevated.
Keldon Johnson, SAN (hamstring): DOUBTFUL
Doug McDermott and Josh Richardson could be primary beneficiaries in Johnson's likely absence.
Other notable injuries:
Brandon Ingram, NOP (toe): OUT
Kelly Olynyk, UTA (ankle): OUT
Jakob Poeltl, SAN (knee): PROBABLE
Larry Nance, NOP (Achilles): QUESTIONABLE
Collin Sexton, UTA (hamstring): QUESTIONABLE
Elite Players
There aren't any players with five-figure salaries that have a chance to play on Thursday's slate since Zion Williamson (COVID-19 protocols) has already been ruled out.
However, two other players with salaries in the high four figures capable of offering elite production are the Wizards' Kristaps Porzingis ($9,600) and Bradley Beal ($9,000).
Porzingis will have to overcome his questionable designation, but if he does play, he'll enjoy a premium matchup against a Jazz team that's allowed the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating to centers (34.0).
Beal has scored 32.9 and 47.2 FD points in his first two games after a long injury layoff, and he'll potentially have to take the floor without Porzingis. Beal averages 4.7 more points and 1.5 more rebounds per 36 minutes when Porzingis doesn't take the floor, so he could provide enhanced value if Porzingis sits.
Expected Chalk
Other likely chalk plays include:
CJ McCollum, NOP ($8,500)
McCollum has scored 41.4 to 51.1 FD points in four of the last five games and will be even more popular with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram both sidelined.
Kyle Kuzma, WAS ($8,300)
Kuzma has scored 47.2 and 49.2 FD points in his last two games, and if Kristaps Porzingis is sidelined, Kuzma will have an even higher rostering rate than those numbers would warrant.
Lauri Markkanen, UTA ($8,200)
Markkanen continues to be the linchpin of the Jazz's attack and is coming off having scored 47.5 FD points in his most recent game, which should keep him extremely popular Thursday.
Devin Vassell, SAN ($7,000)
Vassell has scored 31.9 to 39.3 FD points in four of his last five and should continue to enjoy elevated usage, with Keldon Johnson likely to remain sidelined.
Jonas Valanciunas, NOP ($6,600)
Valanciunas should be an immensely popular mid-salary play, not only as a viable big man on a tiny slate but because he just scored 67.1 FD points across 37 minutes Sunday and will now take the floor Thursday without Zion Williamson.
Key Values
Deni Avdija, WAS at UTA ($5,700)
Avdija may go a bit under the radar with some affordable chalk plays available and lower-salary viable values in the mix, but the talented wing makes for an intriguing play in his own right. Avdija checks into Thursday amid a strong stretch of play, scoring over 30 FD points in five of the last eight games. During that stretch, he's amassing a solid 10.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.1 steals across 33.5 minutes per contest. Utah also ranks in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency rating allowed to small forwards (22.5) and surrenders 37.0 percent three-point shooting to the position. If Porzingis is sidelined, it's worth noting Avdija averages 32.9 FD points per 36 minutes without his star teammate on the floor.
Daniel Gafford, WAS at UTA ($5,300)
Speaking of a potential Porzingis absence, Gafford is undoubtedly a name to keep an eye on in that regard, as he'd likely jump into the starting five should his teammate sit out. However, the young big is a solid play irrespective of whether he's on the first unit or comes off the bench, as he checks in averaging 23.1 FD points across just 19.9 minutes per game in December, but that sample includes a trio of tallies between 31.9 and 43.9 FD points. Those spikes offer a glimpse at his upside at a very modest salary, and the fact the Jazz are allowing the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating to centers (34.0) and seventh-highest to second-unit players (43.1) certainly adds to his appeal. Additionally, Utah is giving up 59 FD points per game to fives and is conceding an NBA-high 55.7 points in the paint per game, furthering Gafford's case.
Naji Marshall, NOP vs. SAN ($4,600)
As mentioned earlier, Marshall should be in line for a spot start at power forward with Zion Williamson sidelined. He could be in for even more minutes if Larry Nance (Achilles) can't overcome his questionable designation. Marshall checks in having scored 24.6 to 30.5 FD points in six of his last nine games, all contests where he logged at least 20 minutes. He's averaged 29.4 FD points in four starts this season as well, putting up a well-rounded 15.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.5 steals in those games while shooting 53.5 percent, including 41.2 percent from distance. The Spurs check in allowing the fourth-highest offensive efficiency rating to power forwards (29.1) and 55.1 percent shooting (including 43.1 percent from three-point range) to the position, making Marshall an even more potentially rewarding value option.
ALSO CONSIDER: Tre Jones, SAN at NOP ($6,300); Keita Bates-Diop, SAN at NOP ($4,700)
