We have three Game 2 contests on tap for Tuesday, and I'll be offering up my favorite DraftKings DFS selections in today's article. Per usual, the seven-game format allows us to use recent data to gauge how the teams have approached their opponents, but as we saw last night, the playoff pendulum effect is always a complicating factor to account for. I think we'll see less of that with this grouping, but some teams could still surprise us.
Try our DraftKings NBA Lineup Optimizer to discover more expert recommendations, customize the player pool, set exposure percentage and mass-enter DFS lineups.
DraftKings Main Slate NBA Games Today
Vegas's projected totals for this trio of games are conspicuously low, so it may be an exploitable spot for the sports bettors among us. I don't use the metric as much in the playoffs, but point spreads are often useful for seeing how the bookmakers account for the inevitable see-saw effect present in the postseason. They seem unconvinced in LA's ability to go 2-0, and predict the Celtics and Spurs to keep winning. I have a bit more faith in the Lakers than they do, but I tend to agree with their opinion about the other two games. I correctly identified the Timberwolves to bounce back last night, but 30 minutes from Kevin Durant is the only way I see one of these series dropping to 1-1.
For the latest spreads and over/unders, visit RotoWire's NBA Odds page. There you can also find player props, futures, picks, articles and sportsbook bonus codes.
NBA Injury Report Today
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report.
PH - OUT: Joel Embiid (abdomen)
The numbers show that Adem Bona and Andre Drummond didn't benefit one iota from Embiid's absence. It's best to avoid a Philly center for now.
HOU - QUESTIONABLE: Kevin Durant (knee)
Durant will be a game-time call, but his insertion would have ramifications across Houston's lineup. If he played, he'd probably be on a slight minute restriction. Utilize late swap to determine the best course of action for Houston selections later in the day.
LAL - OUT: Luka Doncic (hamstring), Austin Reaves (knee)
This injury situation stays in effect for the Lakers. We'll identify alternatives later in the article.
Elite NBA DFS Players
Guards
Deni Avdija, POR ($9,200) @ SAS
The Spurs handled Portland with ease, but Avdija was able to post 55.5 DKFPs in the 13-point loss. Avdija got no help from his supporting cast. Although an improved first-unit performance might negatively impact the chances of a repeat, it's obvious that the Trail Blazers' fortunes decline exponentially without his input. Avdija still has the rare PG/SF eligibility combo, making him slightly more flexible.
Jaylen Brown, BOS ($8,900) vs. PHI
We can also utilize Brown at SF. Unlike his lofty salary on FanDuel, Brown's salary on DraftKings falls right in line with what we'll expect from Brown in Game 2. He came up slightly short of his expected number (39.5 DKFPs) in Game 1, but that was largely due to being absent for the entire fourth quarter. The pendulum effect that we see so often in the playoffs will probably show up to some degree in Game 2, and it may require more time on the court for the All-Star.
Forwards/Centers
Victor Wembanyama, SAS ($11,500) vs. POR
The newly minted Defensive Player of the Year is a very expensive gamble for 5x value. While you can never count him out, he'll need at least 55 DKFPs to maximize his playability. He fell short of that benchmark in Game 1, and a blowout would likely send the dynamo to the bench in the fourth quarter. I feel somewhat obligated to include him, but you'll need to hammer the value picks to make room for him.
LeBron James, LAL ($9,600) vs. HOU
Although Father Time is knocking at the door, you can throw all questions about age out the window. We're talking about LeBron here, and it's the playoffs. With Doncic and Reaves sidelined, you can easily hang your hat on a good showing from James, who posted a fantastic 55.5 DKFPs in Game 1.
Jayson Tatum, BOS ($9,500) vs. PHI
Tatum was incredible in Game 1 with 54.8 DKFPs in the convincing victory. I think costs will restrict you to choose between Brown and Tatum tonight, and which one you choose will probably hinge on your opinion of the James endorsement. The player pool will make it difficult to field more than three elites, but if you fade James, Tatum is the obvious add.
Also consider: Alperen Sengun, HOU ($8,100) @ LAL
Expected NBA DFS Chalk
Luke Kennard, LAL ($5,100) vs. HOU
Sharps will hone in on Kennard as the value pick of choice on this slate. Although all of the above elites are chalky, Kennard has been the primary beneficiary in Doncic's absence, and I don't see that changing in Game 2. Despite his surging numbers, he's still placed well below the DraftKings median and will be very difficult to fade.
Mid-Range Targets
De'Aaron Fox, SAS ($6,900) vs. POR
Although Stephon Castle ($7,400) posted a good number, Fox's result was slightly better. I will continue to prefer Fox over Castle as the better value, though it's a nightly tug-of-war between the two. My decision to fade Tyrese Maxey is largely due to Fox's mid-range opportunity.
Jabari Smith, HOU ($6,000) @ LAL
I'm fond of Smith if Durant sits, but I'd knock my exposure down slightly if Durant is healthy enough to play. In either scenario, Smith has proven his ability to post solid numbers, and even a Durant return may not be enough to keep me away from this favorable number. The Rockets need to step it up to stay relevant in this series, and Smith will be key to that effort.
Also consider: Marcus Smart, LAL ($6,000) vs. HOU
NBA Value Picks
Deandre Ayton, LAL ($5,000) vs. HOU
Ayton is expected to fly off the board tonight, and it's easy to see why. LeBron James clearly has Ayton in his sights in every possession, and I expect the trend to continue. Houston's defense will get a boost if Kevin Durant is in play, but I think his presence could send James' assist numbers even higher, and Ayton will be on the receiving end.
Devin Vassell, SAS ($5,000) vs. POR
Outside of the Spurs' big three, Vassell finished with the highest total (27.3 DKFPs). The possibility of another bench-clearing in Game 2 enhances Vassell's value, and slightly better accuracy with his shot will bring his total even higher. Vassell drilled four three-pointers in Game 1, and if he can match that performance with a more accurate mid-range shot, he'll soar past 5x value.
Reed Sheppard, HOU ($4,900) @ LAL
Sheppard is a solid add if Durant is out, but his potential return will significantly affect Sheppard's usage. He's shown an ability to post good numbers with the second unit, so a move to the bench might not have a major effect if he can match the lower shot volume with solid secondary numbers.
Also consider: Rui Hachimura, LAL ($5,200) vs. HOU
