NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays and Strategy for Sunday, May 3

Expert DraftKings NBA DFS picks for Sunday's Game 7s, including elite, mid-range and value lineup recommendations for the decisive playoff matchups.
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays and Strategy for Sunday, May 3

Sunday's NBA DFS slate on DraftKings features two do-or-die Game 7s: Magic at Pistons and Raptors at Cavaliers. In Detroit, Cade Cunningham has been the slate's most reliable star, scoring at least 43 DraftKings points in every game this series, while Paolo Banchero takes on an even larger role with Franz Wagner sidelined by a calf injury. In Cleveland, Donovan Mitchell brings a proven Game 7 pedigree, and Evan Mobley has emerged as the Cavs' X-Factor. With both series locked at 3-3 and seasons on the line, usage and minutes will spike across the board, creating massive DFS upside at every price point. Here's a full breakdown of the top elite, mid-range and value plays for the elimination doubleheader.

This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.

Slate Overview

ORL at DET: This series is tied and 3-3. Detroit has won the last two games, sending this to a Game 7. 

TOR at CLE: This series is tied and 3-3. This is a deciding Game 7. The home team has won all six games in this series. 

For the latest spreads and over/unders, visit RotoWire's NBA Odds page. There you can also find player props, futures, picks, articles and sportsbook bonus codes.

Injuries to Monitor  

For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report

ORL - Franz Wagner (calf)

DET - NONE

TOR - Brandon Ingram (heel), Immanuel Quickley (hamstring)

CLE -NONE

Elite Players

Guards

Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers ($8,400) vs. Raptors

The best players always seem to perform in the biggest games, and you better believe Mitchell will be hungry in this Game 7. This All-Star hasn't had many massive games in this series, but he's scored at least 34 DraftKings points in eight of his last nine outings. That floor pairs beautifully with his 44-point average, but what we really love are his Game 7 statistics. Mitchell has played two Game 7s, averaging 30.5 points, 9.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists while taking 25 shots across 44 minutes. The 25 shots and 44 minutes show how aggressive he could be here, and that role makes him a value at $8,400. 

Desmond Bane, Magic ($7,000) at Pistons

It would've been easy to stick James Harden in this spot, but Bane is probably the better value. This guard has stepped up all season when Wagner has been out, averaging nearly 40 DraftKings points per game in those circumstances. He's also scored at least 26 fantasy points in eight straight outings while averaging 34 DK points per game during the regular season. We could see this guy play 40-45 minutes and take 20-25 shots in this do-or-die Game 7, which is truly absurd from a $7K player. 

Forwards/Centers

Paolo Banchero, Magic ($9,300) at Pistons 

We just talked about how we love Mitchell and Bane because of their usage, but Banchero might have the highest usage on this slate. With Wagner off the floor, Banchero averaged 23.7 points, 8.6 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. That's on par with the stud we saw in the second half, and it's difficult to overlook his most recent form. Banchero has scored at least 65 DK points in two of his last four fixtures, while averaging 26.3 points, 9.8 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 2.0 steals per game in that span. He's also averaging 22 shots, 13 free-throw attempts and over 40 minutes a night during that stretch! 

Evan Mobley, Cavaliers ($7,800) vs. Raptors

Mobley is the Cavs most valuable player. That might be a controversial statement, but when he plays well, the Cavs win. This big man has scored at least 39 DraftKings points in four of his last five games while scoring over 46 fantasy points in Games 5 and 6. That's fantastic production from a $7,800 player, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him play 45 minutes after playing 41 in Game 6. Toronto hasn't been able to slow him down all season, with Mobley maintaining a 37-point average against them in their nine matchups. 

Expected Chalk 

Cade Cunningham, Pistons ($10,700) vs. Magic

Cunningham is the most expensive player by a mile, and he'll likely be rostered more than anyone else. He's simply the most reliable player on this slate, providing a 35-point floor and a 50-point average during the regular season. That's no surprise when looking at his usage, playing at least 39 minutes in four straight games while attempting at least 23 shots in all of those. You simply can't match that, and it's led to Cunningham scoring at least 43 DraftKings points in every game of this series. 

Mid-Range Money 

Ausar Thompson, Pistons ($6,300) vs. Magic

Thompson isn't asked to do much offensively, but he provides value through sheer hustle. This defensive stud has at least 36 DraftKings points in three of his last four outings while surpassing 45 DK points in two of those. We haven't really seen that upside all year, but he's doing that despite taking 10 or fewer shots in 15 of his last 16 outings. That means the production is likely to continue because he can provide value, no matter how minuscule his usage might be. 

Collin Murray-Boyles, Raptors ($5,800) at Cavaliers

This was not on my bingo card at the beginning of the series. Jakob Poeltl has been the starting center for Toronto all season, but CMB has been the guy during the postseason. This rookie has played at least 25 minutes in the last five games of this series. Most importantly, he played 40 minutes in the Game 6 victory. That bump in playing time has led to Murray-Boyles scoring at least 36 DraftKings points in three of his last four fixtures. You can't ask for any more from a sub-$6K player, and it's unlikely they'll go away from him with the way he's been performing in this series. 

Value Picks

Anthony Black, Magic ($5,200) at Pistons

This is a risky recommendation, but someone needs to step up in Wagner's absence. It was actually Black early in the season, averaging 35 DraftKings points per game between November 16 and February 9. That was about half the season (39 games), and we've seen Black play 34 and 39 minutes in the two most recent games without Wagner. He averaged 35 DK points per game in the 43 games he played 28 minutes or more, so we should expect similar results here. Good luck finding another $5,200 player with a 35-point average and 30-minute opportunity. 

Duncan Robinson, Pistons ($4,000) vs. Magic

Robinson might be the only player below $4,500 who's expected to play over half the game. This sharpshooter has been Detroit's starting SG all season, averaging 21 DraftKings points across 27 minutes a night. That might not sound like anything special, but you only need 25 fantasy points for a $4K player to be a good value. What's really encouraging is that we saw Robinson play 36 minutes in the Game 6 win, so he's one of the safest bets to reach 5X value with that type of role. 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Joel Bartilotta plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: Joelbartilotta Yahoo: Joelbartilotta.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Joel has 20 years of Fantasy experience, and can recall riding a young Daunte Culpepper to a championship in the 2003-04 season in his inaugural fantasy year. He covers NBA, NFL, daily fantasy, EPL, and MLB for RotoWire.
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