Using RotoWire's trusty NBA DFS projections and our wide array of tools, I will make a deep dive into the player pool and present our best plays for DraftKings' slim five-game slate. Late swaps are your friends as the season draws to a close, as teams out of the playoffs will begin to tinker and playoff-bound squads will begin to rest elites. You simply have to pay attention late in the day, as this period is just as difficult as the pre-season and the first weeks of the season. My FanDuel picks were right on target yesterday and yielded double-ups across the board - let's try and get the same result on DraftKings.
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DraftKings Main Slate NBA Games Today
We have a few spots to wait on, as Toronto, Phoenix and Brooklyn all have some questionable tags that need to be resolved before tip-off. There's no clear winner in the race for projected totals tonight, but the massive spread between Charlotte and Brooklyn appears to be the most significant piece of Vegas data. I bought into some Hornets in hopes that they don't clear the bench.
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NBA Injury Report Today
PHO - QUESTIONABLE: Mark Williams (foot), Grayson Allen (knee) PROBABLE: Dillon Brooks (hand)
We may finally see Phoenix's original starting lineup back on the floor tonight, although we'll have to wait and see on Williams. Allen has a shot at returning, and Brooks is expected back. I would probably hold off on Brooks for at least one more game, as his injury will affect his shot accuracy.
BKN - OUT: Michael Porter (hamstring), Danny Wolf (ankle), Terance Mann (Achilles)
The Nets will require a late check for every remaining game, because there's some serious tinkering going on with two-way players and bench participants. I expect Ziaire Williams ($5,200) to be used again despite an odd scratch Sunday night.
TOR - OUT: Immanuel Quickley (foot) QUESTIONABLE: Brandon Ingram (heel)
Jamal Shead ($4,800) will hold onto a starting role with Quickley out. We'll discuss Ingram's ideal pivot later in the article.
DET - OUT: Cade Cunningham (chest), PROBABLE: Jalen Duren (knee), Tobias Harris (hip)
The Pistons fared better than expected against the Thunder despite a decimated first unit. Credit goes to Paul Reed ($4,500), Javonte Green ($3,800) and Kevin Huerter ($4,200) for filling in admirably, and you can safely consider at least one of them against the Raptors while also keeping Daniss Jenkins ($6,900) in mind.
DAL - QUESTIONABLE: Naji Marshall (illness), P.J. Washington (illness)
We could see returns from Marshall and Washington, but consider Khris Middleton ($3,400) and his bargain salary if either player is out.
MIL - OUT: Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee), Bobby Portis (wrist), Kevin Porter (knee)
We could see a return from Kyle Kuzma and Ryan Rollins, which will shift some of the recent obscure names back to the bench. I don't mind Kuzma at $6,100, and I'd also consider Myles Turner at $5,600. The Bucks are tough to rely on right now.
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report.
Elite NBA DFS Players
Guards
LaMelo Ball, CHA ($8,500) @ BKN
The Hornets could dismantle the Nets tonight, and although you've got excellent options for less money, I expect Ball to bounce back after damaging his line with a slow start against the Celtics two nights ago. I wouldn't write off guys like Kon Knueppel ($6,700) or Brandon Miller ($7,600), but Ball should also be safe to utilize.
Amen Thompson, HOU ($8,100) vs. NYK
I toyed with Jalen Brunson ($9,300), but I think you can get similar production for a cheaper cost with Thompson. There's a chance for an explosive night for Brunson, but he fell in with his usual averages in one game against the Rockets this season. Meanwhile, Thompson ran up a double-double on them, and you've got to love those DD and TD DraftKings bonuses.
Forwards/Centers
Scottie Barnes, TOR ($8,900) @ DET
Although I'll take Barnes on his own merits, he moves into lock territory if Ingram fails to play. The Pistons are extremely short-handed, and although the team's replacements are strong, they may have the toughest time defending the four. Jakob Poeltl and Paul Reed will battle it out, but Barnes could exploit Ronald Holland and the assortment of other fill-ins who will take Harris' place. I also won't rule out RJ Barrett ($7,500), but his shoulder may limit his effectiveness.
Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK ($9,200) @ HOU
I wish we had more contest data, but I'm going to break the tie between Towns and Alperen Sengun ($9,200) based on Towns' better results against the Rockets and his additional positional eligibility. We can place him in four different positions, and that's a distinct advantage.
Desmond Bane, ORL ($7,400) vs. PHX
Bane hung 34 points on the Suns when they last met, and they have the advantage of catching the Suns at home this time around. It's easy to discount the role travel plays on a team, but this is the second consecutive road game, spanning the entire country, with a stop in Memphis. The Suns may also try to send Brooks out to perform immediately, and Bane might be able to take advantage in that spot.
Expected NBA DFS Chalk
Paolo Banchero, ORL ($9,500) vs. PHX
While any of the aforementioned options could have filled this spot, I think much of the public will fire up Banchero against the Suns frontcourt. The matchup against Royce O'Neale will be a fresh exploit for Orlando's dominant power forward.
Mid-Range NBA Targets
Jabari Smith, HOU ($6,300) vs. NYK
I thought long and hard about Smith versus OG Anunoby ($6,500), but I settled on Smith by a hair. Anunoby's single game against the Rockets was a little above average, but Smith generated a slightly better result at a cheaper salary. The gap between salaries is much closer now, and that's mostly due to Smith's marked improvement. Anunoby is fine, but I think you'll reap bigger dividends with Smith.
Ausar Thompson, DET ($6,000) vs. TOR
As the team's only active starter, I think it's a good fit for Thompson. He beat 5x value with 31.3 DKFPs in the team's last game, and he managed that against a tough OKC defense. He might have an easier time of things, especially if Ingram misses and Barrett's shoulder bothers him.
NBA DFS Value Picks
Our best values can be found in the injury section, but I'll scrounge up a couple of additional options for you to use below.
Pete Nance, MIL ($4,800) vs. DAL
Although some of Milwaukee's options will return to action, it'll be tough to bench Nance, who's played quite well as a fill-in. The Bucks have little to play for, and they might as well give the youth on their roster a crack as the season concludes. Potential departures from Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kyle Kuzma will need to be accounted for next season.
Brandon Williams, DAL ($4,900) @ MIL
Williams logged one of his best totals of the season in the team's most recent game, and he executed it with Cooper Flagg active. He's more productive than Ryan Nembhard and can often outpace Max Christie, making him a very reasonable pivot in the bargain bin.
