For the first time in three years, the eighth seeded team in the NBA postseason managed to upset the top squad in their conference. The Orlando Magic accomplished that on Sunday, defeating Eastern Conference No. 1 seed Detroit, 112-101.
RotoWire.com wanted to get an NBA betting sense of how likely we are to see an eighth seed reach the second round for the first time since the Miami Heat in 2023. So we analyzed how past No. 8 seeds fared after winning Game 1, dating to 2003, when the NBA expanded the first round to a best-of-seven series.
Can Orlando Join NBA's Eighth Seeded Wonders?
While Orlando's 11-point Game 1 win over Detroit was impressive, it doesn't appear to be transcendent enough to flip the script on the series. At least that's the take that oddsmakers at leading NBA betting apps seem to be adopting.
For all of the success that Paolo Banchero and company had on Sunday in the Motor City, Orlando still enters Wednesday's Game 2 (7 p.m. Eastern, ESPN) as a sizable underdog. As of Monday morning, DraftKings Sportsbook listed the Pistons as 9.5-point favorites for Game 2.
Orlando Magic vs Detroit Pistons Game 1 Upset Analysis
Still, the Magic (45-37), decisively hammered the East's best team during the regular season, just days after Orlando clinched the final playoff spot in the conference via the play-in route.
At Detroit's Little Caesars Arena, Orlando had all five starters score in double figures. Banchero led the offense with 23 points on 8-of-15 shooting, plus he had nine rebounds and four assists.
Also, Orlando dominated the glass against a sizable foe, pulling down 45 boards to Detroit's 39 (and 11 offensive ones to the Pistons' six). Coach Jamahl Mosley's squad had 26 assists and committed 12 turnovers, much better than the Pistons, who had 19 assists and 14 TOs.
NBA Playoff Betting Odds for Magic vs Pistons Series
Orlando's path toward advancing out of the first round is a long way from fruition. At Caesars Sportsbook, the Magic's odds of winning the best-of-seven series against the Pistons are at +170, compared with -210 odds that Detroit (60-22 in the regular season) moves on.
The Magic will have to defend their home court on April 25 and 27 in Games 3 and 4. Assuming the series goes long, Orlando most likely will have to score another decisive win in Detroit, either during Game 5 (on April 29) or Game 7 (on May 3). But the Magic have at least taken the first step toward joining a few other No. 8 seeds over the past two decades by pulling off a first-round upset.
No. 8 Seed NBA Playoff History After Winning Game 1
Orlando's 45-37 record in the 2025-26 regular season is solid for a No. 8 seed and it falls in line with other eighth seeded teams that won Game 1 and went on to win the series. The Heat went 44-38 in 2022-23 and the 2010-11 Memphis Grizzlies finished 46-36 before stunning No. 1 San Antonio in the playoffs.
That 2023 Miami team went into the playoffs as a +6000 longshot with BetMGM Sportsbook to win the East. But the team did just that, knocking off No. 1 seed Milwaukee then ousting the Knicks and Celtics before losing to Denver in the NBA Finals.
The only other eighth-seeded team to win Game 1 and take the series since 2003 was the 2007 Golden State Warriors. They beat the Dallas Mavericks, 97-85, in Game 1 after going 42-40 in the regular season. Golden State won the series against Dallas in six games, which is something that Orlando will look to replicate in 2026.
Overall, No. 8 seeds that win Game 1 in Round 1 have a 3-7 record in those series. That speaks to the long road that lies ahead of the Magic, even after they sprung an upset to take Game 1 in Motown.
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