Handicapping the NBA: Futures Check-In

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Published on January 14, 2021

As the NBA chugs along despite positive tests, contract tracing and postponements, odds continue to shift. This early in the season, there's still plenty of value to be had on futures, whether that be for teams or for players. As it stands, here are the current odds leaders for the major futures bets:

NBA Championship:

Lakers (+175, PointsBet)
Nets (+300, everywhere)
Clippers (+600, DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM)

Most Valuable Player

Luka Doncic (+480, FanDuel)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (+600, FanDuel)
Kevin Durant (+900, PointsBet)

Most Improved Player

Christian Wood (+175, PointsBet)
Jerami Grant (+500, FanDuel)
Julius Randle (+1,600, DraftKings)

Defensive Player of the Year

Anthony Davis (+250, BetMGM)
Rudy Gobert (+350, FanDuel)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (+600, PointsBet)

Rookie of the Year

LaMelo Ball (-149, BetMGM)
Tyrese Haliburton (+400, BetMGM)
James Wiseman (+900, DraftKings)

Sixth Man of the Year (all via PointsBet)

After looking through most available futures, I targeted a handful that I believe have some value:

Hawks to win Southeast Division (+550) -- FanDuel

The Southeast division, like many divisions this early in the season, is a mess. Orlando sits at the top with a shocking 6-5 record, while the Hornets and Hawks are both .500. The Heat are a disappointing 4-5 and the Wizards are a tragic 3-8.

I think the cream will rise to the top sooner than later, and this will end up being a race between the Heat and Hawks (but don't sleep on the Hornets being a good basketball team).

The early markings have been encouraging for Atlanta. Basketball-Reference's Simple Rating System, which takes into account strength of schedule and net rating, has the Hawks ranking fifth-best in the league with a mark of 4.4. The Hawks' starting five has also been dominant, with a +20 net rating in non-garbage time. They've also accomplished this while getting practically nothing out of Danilo Gallinari, who has been hurt most of the season.

Meanwhile, the Heat's SRS is 0.3 and their starting five has a +8.4 net rating. Both teams will probably start trending closer together, but I believe there's a better than 5-to-1 chance the Hawks remain on top of the division.

Ja Morant to win Most Improved Player (+10,000) -- DraftKings

Christian Wood is the favorite (+175 via PointsBet) for Most Improved, which I think is appropriate, and there are some other interesting options on the board, as usually is the case for Most Improved.

But after Morant went down with an ankle injury three games into the year, his odds tanked. Morant could return late this month, which would give him enough time to make his case for the rest of the season. Before going down with the injury, Morant had a 37.2 percent usage rate and was averaging 35.1 points, 8.4 assists and 3.1 rebounds per 36 minutes. During the preseason, he averaged 24.5 points, 13.6 assists, 6.6 rebounds and 2.1 steals per 36 minutes. Morant has the look and feel of an elite point guard coming into his own.

He'll have to stay healthy the rest of the way to have a chance to win the award, but at +10,000, it's tough not to consider a wager.

LaMelo Ball to win Rookie of the Year (-149) -- BetMGM

Broadly, this is a four-man race for Rookie of the Year between Ball, Tyrese Haliburton, James Wiseman and Anthony Edwards. But really, it's between Ball and Haliburton, who have both proven to be key, needed pieces of their team's gameplan on both sides of the ball. And for that reason, I wouldn't mind a wager on Haliburton at +350 (via DraftKings) either.

But, this is about Ball. Since the fourth game of the season, Ball is averaging 13.8 points on 12.0 shots, 8.1 rebounds 6.9 assists and 1.6 steals. His dimes and boards become even more impressive when you consider he's grabbed 2.1 offensive rebounds per game and is committing just 1.8 turnovers during this stretch. He's actually creating 1.9 more possessions than he's giving up, as a high-usage rookie point guard. The eye-test helps his case, too, as he's an extremely high-IQ player on both sides of the ball and appears to know what's happening on the court at all times. The Hornets are also 6-6, and a solid record helps Ball's case, though that's far from a requirement for Rookie of the Year.

Nikola Jokic to win Most Valuable Player (+1,200) -- DraftKings

Denver's poor defense has lead to an uninspiring 5-6 record, but Jokic is doing everything he can to carry the team. The short offseason meant that Jokic didn't have time to get out of shape, and he's come into the year looking awesome out of the gate. In 35.0 minutes per game, the center is averaging 24.3 points, a league-high 10.5 assists, 10.9 rebounds and 2.3 combined steals-plus-blocks. His shooting numbers are also stellar, with Jokic posting 58/41/82 splits.

Notably, he's cracked the 30 percent usage threshold which is practically a requirement for the modern MVP winner, and his 66.3 true shooting percentage also fits the bill of the typical winner. Advanced stats are in Jokic's favor, as he's leading the NBA in every acronym imaginable, including PER, VORP, BPM, WS/48, WS and OWS. The Nuggets will probably need to avoid a play-in game for Jokic to win this award, but given what he's doing right now -- not out of line with what we've seen him be capable of before -- I like the value at 12-to-1.