This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Tonight's 10-game slate kicks off at 7:00 p.m. ET. potential game cancellation, a prime revenge game and some lightning-fast matchups are all on the docket tonight. Let's get right to it!
SLATE OVERVIEW
(odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change)
Games/Teams to Target in BOLD
Games/Teams to Fade in ITALIC
BKN @ IND (+3.5) O/U: 232
SAC @ WAS (-6.5) O/U: 245.5
MIL @ PHI (+6.5) O/U: 237
TOR @ DET (+2.5) O/U: 220.5
SAS @ CHI (-1) O/U: 226.5
GSW @ HOU (+11) O/U: 226.5
BOS @ CLE (+9) O/U: 217.5
CHA @ DEN (-6.5) O/U: 230.5
MIA @ MEM (+2) O/U: 221
LAC @ DAL (+2) O/U: 226.5
The Kings-WIzards contest might be my favorite game of the night. While you can narrow the output for Washington down to two people, many people are in play for Sacramento, and I'm willing to stack 2-3 Kings. We're also going to find some of the usual value in Toronto, and a cornucopia of value in Houston, who are at risk of a postponement if they can't field eight players.
INJURIES
SAC Marvin Bagley (hand) - OUT
SAC Hassan Whiteside (COVID-19 protocols) - QUESTIONABLE
Bagley's fractured hand is a tough break for the Kings. I was going to save Richaun Holmes ($6,900) for later in the article, but he is without question my favorite center on the slate tonight due to his reasonable salary and opportunity. Assuming Bagley is out for an extended period, the Kings will need Whiteside, so his status is something to keep an eye on. I don't think his presence would adversely affect Holmes too much, however. Nemanja Bjelica ($3,700) would be an ok value here if Whiteside stays out for another game.
TOR Pascal Siakam (COVID-19 protocols) - QUESTIONABLE
TOR Fred VanVleet (COVID-19 protocols) - DOUBTFUL
TOR OG Anunoby (COVID-19 protocols) - OUT
Siakam was cleared to practice on Tuesday, so he could return to action. With VanVleet likely still out, Norman Powell ($7,700) will continue to turn out excellent numbers. Kyle Lowry ($8,300) is priced appropriately here and should also be a fine option. I'm less enamored with Chris Boucher ($7,400) if Siakam is back. There's value elsewhere on this slate, but teams like Houston have more reliable budget picks tonight.
DET Hamidou Diallo (groin) - OUT
DET Dennis Smith (COVID-19 protocols) - QUESTIONABLE
DET Wayne Ellington (groin) - DOUBTFUL
DET Rodney McGruder (elbow) - QUESTIONABLE
The key injury to watch here is Dennis Smith. If he plays, he'll back up Delon Wright ($5,400), who comes at a great price and is a solid play tonight. If Smith can't make it, Saben Lee ($3,700) would end up playing second fiddle and could emerge as one of the better values today.
PHI Joel Embiid (knee) -OUT
There's no timetable for Embiid, and unfortunately, there's no clear pivot for him either. Both Dwight Howard and Tony Bradley aren't lighting it up, and due to more attractive options at the sole center spot, I am staying away. Tobias Harris ($7,800) is a bit too pricey on FanDuel, but the matchup is pretty favorable.
BOS Tristan Thompson (COVID-19 protocols) - QUESTIONABLE
Daniel Theis ($4,400) has a PF designation, and he's someone I'd like to target if Thompson doesn't play. He logged 26 minutes in Tuesday's game and did more than enough to beat value.
CLE Andre Drummond (inactive) - OUT
CLE Kevin Love (calf) - QUESTIONABLE
If Love is out, it's time to give a little love to Larry Nance ($4,900). At this salary point, his 34 FP performance as a starter against Miami is very encouraging. He's more of a tournament option here in a game that isn't very high on my list.
HOU Victor Oladipo (rest) - QUESTIONABLE
HOU Christian Wood (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
HOU John Wall (knee) - OUT
HOU Danuel House (knee) - OUT
HOU Eric Gordon (groin) - OUT
HOU David Nwaba (wrist) - OUT
HOU Ben McLemore (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
Hold on to your hats. This is probably the most important paragraph of today's article. At least one of these questionable tags has to take the floor. If not, Houston is left with only seven players and the game is canceled. While Oladipo has yet to play both games in a back-to-back set, they may need to usher him out, because if both Wood and McLemore miss, he's the only remaining option. With that said, there's a lot of value here, beginning with Kevin Porter ($6,300), who will start and can play multiple positions. Jae'Sean Tate ($5,000) will also be in play if Wood stays out, and I like Sterling Brown ($4,800) as well if McLemore isn't around. You'll hear a lot about Kenyon Martin ($5,000), but he's what I'd call "bad chalk" in this scenario. While the upside is there, his price is a little high, and he did very little against Atlanta despite playing 34 minutes.
SAS DeMar DeRozan (personal) - OUT
This is a wait-and-see situation, as the Spurs utilized multiple sets to replace DeRozan. You can always count on Gregg Popovich to mess with your fantasy builds. Of the San Antonio group, Jakob Poeltl ($5,600) is a good budget center option, and Dejounte Murray ($7,800) should be the top producer.
DEN Monte Morris (quad) - OUT
DEN Gary Harris (thigh) - OUT
You've got to hand it to Will Barton ($5,500). He's making the most of this injury scenario. He's crushed 5x value in three consecutive games, and I'm a fan of his potential tonight. The salary difference between Barton and Michael Porter ($6,700) has made Porter a lot less popular recently, so the latter is an ok contrarian option but not really necessary for today's builds.
LAC Serge Ibaka (back) - QUESTIONABLE
Keep an eye on Ibaka. If he can't go, Ivica Zubac's ($4,500) fortunes increase, and Marcus Morris ($3,700) becomes more valuable as well, as he should be back in the starting lineup moving forward.
ELITE PLAYERS
As I said, you can narrow Washington's production down to two people, namely Russell Westbrook ($10,400) and Bradley Beal ($9,500). I'm always going to favor Westbrook over Beal because Westbrook's assist numbers will usually outdo Beal's production in secondary categories, and Beal is more shot-dependent. There will be days when Beal puts up the higher number, but Westbrook's floor makes the $900 differential worthwhile.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400) excels in close games, and I think this matchup with the Sixers will be one of those nights. Dare I say, Giannis' salary is actually UNDERPRICED for a matchup like this. If you watch the Bucks with any frequency, you've seen how Giannis basically hangs out in the paint and gets rebounds as if he's apple picking. Without Embiid, a high rebound number should accompany a prolific scoring day.
Elsewhere in the 10k range, you can't go wrong with Nikola Jokic ($11,200) in a favorable matchup against Charlotte, but as I said, Richaun Holmes is one of my top centers tonight, and it makes Jokic someone I won't have a lot of in this slate. Jimmy Butler ($10,800) and Luka Doncic ($10,200) continue to get it done for their respective teams, but I don't like the matchups, and the O/U totals for both games aren't the best. I'll round out 10k with James Harden ($11,000), who is in a good spot against the Pacers. He's still going to be a better option than Kyrie Irving ($9,100) on most nights, but unlike the Beal-Westbrook parallel, Irving's salary is a little more useful to us. Still, I'd favor Harden overall. Of the 10k options, I'd rank the top three as Giannis, Westbrook and Harden, in that order.
In the 9k range, Stephen Curry ($9,400) should have a great opportunity against Houston if they can actually play this game tonight. De'Aaron Fox ($9,100) is also the floor general in my favorite game of the night, and I'll have several lineups pairing Westbrook and Fox as a game stack. Kawhi Leonard ($9,300) is playing lights out lately, but it's important to note how often this position is used for value on FanDuel. I'd far prefer Leonard if he had a PF designation, but I'll need value at this position, so Leonard won't be utilized as much as I'd like. My favorite play at this level is Domantas Sabonis ($9,200) against the Nets. He's had three double-doubles and one triple-double over the past four games, and Brooklyn won't have a suitable solution for him tonight.
EXPECTED CHALK
Bam Adebayo, MIA ($8,300) @ MEM
Adebayo played 30 minutes in his return to action and put up 38 FP. Adebayo gets the nod due to the PF designation on FanDuel, as we don't need the center spot to get a hold of his talent. The matchup between Adebayo and Valanciunas will be interesting. Bam is the better defender of the two and has had better success overall when these two players have tangled (although you have to go to last year to find it).
Ben Simmons, PHI ($7,900) vs. MIL
Simmons is at one of those salary points where you almost have to double-check to see if you read it right. Sure enough, Philly's dynamic do-it-all has a PG designation and is a great pivot off the elite PG stack I mentioned above. The close spread and high O/U make this option alluring. He played exceptionally well with a 16/13/7 line against the Knicks last night, and they'll remain at home on this back-to-back.
Jaylen Brown, BOS ($7,300) @ CLE
This game should be all Boston, but I don't mind Brown in this spot because out of all the starters, Brown sticks around a bit more regardless of the game's status. A runaway win is certainly possible from the Celtics, who are fully healthy now and have a bright future for the second half, but it won't come without a good dose of offense from Brown.
Draymond Green, GSW ($6,700) @ HOU
I only have one knock on Green in this very exploitable matchup. The nightly triple-double threat pulls a notorious disappearing act when the game gets lopsided on one side or the other. Assuming this game is played, the Rockets may not have enough ammunition to keep this game close, which is why Green carries a modicum of risk this evening. Still, his upside is well-documented, and it could show up in spades tonight.
Also consider: Paul George, LAC ($7,600) @ DAL
VALUE PLAYS
The majority of our deep value comes from the injury section, but here are some more options to consider at or below FanDuel's median price.
SACRAMENTO PLAYERS vs. Wizards
Along with Fox and Holmes, I think there's a ripe opportunity for Buddy Hield ($6,500), Harrison Barnes ($6,100) and Tyrese Haliburton ($6,300) in this high-paced matchup against the Wizards. Barnes is my favorite candidate due to the rebounding hole left by Bagley, while Hield and Haliburton are more shot-dependent players who need a hot shooting stroke to be optimally relevant. Hield has been on a bit of a roll, scoring five three-pointers in his last matchup.
Jrue Holiday, MIL ($5,900) @ PHI
This price is almost silly for Holiday, who is entirely off a minute restriction, and his production has ramped up since his return. I think the breakout game is on the horizon for Holiday, and it could easily come in this competitive matchup. All he needs is just under 30 FDFP for a value-beating evening.
Caris LeVert, IND ($4,400) vs. BKN
What is up with this pricing? The other sites have adjusted for LeVert's return, but FanDuel still has him at this ridiculous salary. Not only is his price ideal, but this is a REVENGE game for LeVert, who rather abruptly got shipped out amidst the trade frenzy at the beginning of the season. The Pacers should still cap his minutes, but he doesn't have to do much here. I think he could get as high as 7x value relative to this salary tonight.
Also consider: Isaiah Stewart, DET ($4,000) vs. TOR, Drew Eubanks, SA ($3,500) @ CHI
