This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Thursday's six-game slate tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET, and there's a pretty sizeable gap between the first and second trio of games. I recommend re-checking in around 9:45 p.m. ET to inspect lineups, as the final three games could offer some late-swap opportunities as lineups lock.
SLATE OVERVIEW
UTA @ WAS (+10) O/U: 237.5
ORL @ NYK (-7) O/U: 208.5
OKC @ ATL (-7) O/U: 225.5
MIN @ PHO (-10.5) O/U: 228.5
NOR @ POR (-1) O/U: 240
CHA @ LAL (-7) O/U: 225.5
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Games to Target in BOLD
Games to FADE in ITALICS
The Pelicans-Trail Blazers' total might be an under candidate tonight, but it's still one of the best games to target on the slate. Conversely, the Magic-Knicks contest could conceivably dip below 200 total points if the game script allows, and it's just a horrendous spot for almost every worthy player in that matchup. We will have some question marks for Washington as the Wizards come in on a back-to-back, and there could be considerable blowout risk in this one.
INJURIES
UTA: Mike Conley (injury management) - OUT
Jordan Clarkson ($5,200) definitely deserves a markup here. This pivot will be very popular tonight.
WAS: Russell Westbrook - POSSIBLE REST
Keep an eye on Westbrook, as this is a back-to-back game, and there is always a chance that he takes a seat. We'll discuss a pivot a bit later, but in the value column, one would expect Raul Neto ($3,500) to get the start in a Westbrook absence.
OKC: Darius Bazley (shoulder) - OUT
OKC: Luguentz Dort (toe) - QUESTIONABLE
OKC: Theo Maledon (thumb) - QUESTIONABLE
I will go a bit beyond these injuries to discuss the Thunder because they won't get much mention in the column after this point. Bazley's absence will definitely give both Isaiah Roby ($4,900) and Aleksej Pokusevski ($4,300) an uptick in production, and even more so if Dort is to sit.
The biggest question on this slate is Moses Brown ($4,400). There's a chance that Brown is the center of the future for the Thunder, and that Al Horford's ($5,900) days are numbered in Oklahoma City. Can we trust Brown, despite Horford's removal from the injury report? For this price, I think the answer is yes. While there's a chance the Thunder may want to show what Horford has in the tank to a potential trade partner, they also wouldn't mind winning a few games. There's some risk here, but I believe Brown deserves a place in MME builds.
ATL: Clint Capela (heel) - QUESTIONABLE
I wouldn't go with John Collins ($7,500) tonight, but if Capela is out, you almost have to consider him. Aside from Danilo Gallinari ($5,700), there really isn't another player on the roster who can hold the line in the frontcourt.
ORL: Terrence Ross (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
ORL: Aaron Gordon (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
ORL: Evan Fournier (groin) - QUESTIONABLE
This is just a messy, messy game that we want to stay away from. Gordon and Fournier have been working in practice, but their statuses are unknown, and we don't know much about Ross either. The other problem here is that it's difficult to set a late-swap placeholder due to the varying positions and salaries. If a lot of these injury tags hold, Dwayne Bacon ($4,700) and Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,000) would be the value spots, although it's nothing to get too excited about.
NYK: Immanuel Quickley (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
NYK: Derrick Rose (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
NYK: Elfrid Payton (hamstring) - DOUBTFUL
Once again, we have the point guard quagmire to deal with for the Knicks. As I said, this is not a game I'm anxious about including in builds tonight, so it might be best to leave this spot alone. Quickley is the likeliest to shed the tag, but if Payton and Quickley are out, Alec Burks ($4,500) and Reggie Bullock ($3,800) would earn a tepid recommendation.
MIN: Malik Beasley (suspension) -OUT
MIN: D'Angelo Russell (knee) - OUT
This is the same ongoing injury situation, but there's some recent action beyond Anthony Edwards ($7,100) in this scenario. Both Jaylen Nowell ($4,600) and Ricky Rubio ($5,400) have been putting up value-beating numbers of late. On a night when our point guard options are a little slimmer, these two guys could fill one of those PG slots for value.
ELITE PLAYERS
We only have four players at 10k or above tonight, and there's one player I like above the rest. That would be Damian Lillard ($10,400), who has thrust himself into the MVP conversation with massive stat lines on a nightly basis.
The matchup against the Pelicans holds the highest Over/Under on the slate, and I think Lillard will benefit from CJ McCollum's familiar face, despite the soft minute restriction. LeBron James ($10,800) remains a nightly consideration, and he meets the Hornets tonight. James is probably anxious to test LaMelo Ball's skills, so I expect the two of them to mix it up, with Gordon Hayward pitching in defensively.
Russell Westbrook ($10,500) and Nikola Vucevic ($10,000) aren't very high on my list tonight. For one, Westbrook could sit, in which case pivoting to Bradley Beal ($9,500) wouldn't be a bad idea. In Vucevic's case, the pace of this game is going to be woefully slow, and even though he will probably top the box score for the Magic, it's just not the best spot for him or Julius Randle ($9,200).
Moving down into the 9k range, there is only one player who we haven't already mentioned, and that's Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700). Towns' recent increase in minutes is encouraging, and there's no reason why the T'Wolves shouldn't open up the valve and let the big man play. He represents their best chance at success against a tough Suns team tonight.
EXPECTED CHALK
Zion Williamson, NOR ($8,400) @ POR
We have immediate feedback for this matchup. Zion put up 47 FP against Portland and almost won the game for the Pels in the final seconds. I see no reason why an excellent stat line wouldn't be in the cards again. It's worth noting that Brandon Ingram ($7,800) is coming in at a lower price than most sites on FanDuel. Although he's more shot-dependent, he put up 30 points and added enough secondary production to get him close to 40 FP against Portland. I doubt he'll match shot volume after 22 attempts in the last game, but there's a chance for a value-beating number for Ingram, as well.
Devin Booker, PHO ($7,500) vs. MIN
I'm going to touch on a bizarre intangible here, so bear with me. Devin Booker is dating Kendall Jenner. Karl-Anthony Towns is dating Jordyn Woods, who also dated Booker at one time. There's currently some bad blood between Woods and the Jenner family over Woods' alleged dalliance with Tristan Thompson, and... well, does anyone really care about this? Simply put, Booker is on a roll lately, and there might be a tiny chance that Booker wants to show Towns, his teammate in college, the goods tonight. Off-court antics aside, Booker's recent production and reasonable price makes him a virtual lock for me on this slim slate.
Deandre Ayton, PHO ($6,800) vs. MIN
Towns' defensive game has gone up a notch this season, so gone are the days where you simply plug in the center who's playing opposite him. Still, when you consider Ayton's very attractive price and recent production, he looks better and better as we glance at the center options. He has exceeded 5x value in two straight contests, and he put up a 22-and-10 double-double when these teams last met. Interestingly, Towns put up an identical number in that matchup, which implies that you're getting the same floor for 3k less. Towns has more upside than Ayton, but that upside isn't worth 3k when you plug a big projection into an FP-per-dollar model.
Lonzo Ball, NO ($6,700) @ POR
Ball dropped a career-high 17 dimes in the last game against Portland, and although his name is still bandied about as the trade deadline nears, his current worth to the Pelicans is immense, and they'd need an excellent deal to usher in the era of Nickeil Alexander-Walker at point guard. Much like the last game, I expect another strong assists number and a number north of 35 FP.
Also consider: Donovan Mitchell, UTA ($8,300) @ WAS
VALUE PLAYS
You'll find plenty of value in the injury section, but here are some additional budget picks to add to your arsenal tonight.
Montrezl Harrell, LAL ($6,700) vs. CHA
With Anthony Davis out, Harrell has been making the most of his opportunities, and since he pretty much has the spot to himself, he's logged significant minutes in recent weeks, averaging about 30 minutes over the past four games. Although he's more of a contrarian option on the slate, he should find dome success against a weak Charlotte frontcourt.
Talen Horton-Tucker, LAL ($3,700) vs. CHA
The SG spot looks like the best space to mine value tonight, and THT is showing up well in my cash model. He's made a significant impact in the offense for two straight games, and while he might fall victim to the whims of the Lakers' rotation, he does enough in the secondary categories to meet value if his shot volume is scant. Thirty FanDuel points would be an amazing total here, but 25 FP might be all you need to get him into an optimal lineup.
Jae Crowder, PHO ($3,800) vs. MIN
Crowder could very well start again tonight, and if he does, he'll be anxious to improve upon his lackluster performance in the last game against the Wolves, in which he failed to score. While that was largely an issue with the rotation for Crowder, he hopefully won't face the same issues tonight. There's some risk here due to an unreliable floor, but Crowder is taking steps to lock down this spot in the starting lineup, and he could take another step forward in that process tonight. Dario Saric ($3,800) could end up stepping in here, as well.
Also consider: Enes Kanter, POR ($6,000) vs. NOR, Rui Hachimura, WAS ($5,000) vs. UTA
