This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Thursday's six-game slate kicks off at 7:00 p.m. ET. Let's begin our analysis with the spreads and totals for each game.
SLATE OVERVIEW
DAL @ PHI (-5.5) O/U: 226.5
SAC @ NYK (-2) O/U: 222
ORL @ BKN (-8) O/U: 227.5
LAC @ MEM (+7.5) O/U: 228.5
WAS @ DEN (-7) O/U: 236.5
NOR @ MIL (-9) O/U: 241.5
Odds via the FanDuel Sportsbook
Games/Teams to Target in BOLD
Games/Teams to Fade in ITALICS
INJURIES
DAL: Kristaps Porzingis (back) - QUESTIONABLE
DAL: Maxi Kleber (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
Dwight Powell ($3,500) and James Johnson ($4,000) would obviously remain in play if both of these players miss again, but it's a bit of a toss-up as to their status right now.
PHI: Seth Curry (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
If Curry suits up, he would immediately be a solid value pick on the slate. If he isn't in, you're pivoting to the starters, although Furkan Korkmaz ($3,500) might get the start at shooting guard and could be worth a couple of shots.
BKN: Kevin Durant (hamstring) - OUT
BKN: Jeff Green (shoulder) - QUESTIONABLE
BKN: Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (hip) - QUESTIONABLE
A Jeff Green absence should open things up for DeAndre Jordan ($5,800), who would be a value/contrarian play against the massive center offerings we have today. We'll get into the elite Brooklyn options in a moment.
SAC: Hassan Whiteside (COVID-19 protocol) - OUT
Whiteside's absence shouldn't affect much in the rotation, but you can justify slight boosts for Richaun Holmes ($6,400) and Marvin Bagley ($6,000) can be justified.
NYK: Mitchell Robinson (hand) - OUT
NYK: Nerlens Noel (ankle) - PROBABLE
NYK: Elfrid Payton (hamstring) - DOUBTFUL
Payton is the most significant (likely) absence here, and it opens up the door for Alec Burks ($4,000) as a premier value option tonight. Immanuel Quickley ($4,600) is another guard option in this spot, but I like Burks' salary more. I also predict Derrick Rose ($5,700) could garner the start.
MEM: Dillon Brooks (thigh) - QUESTIONABLE
I really hope Brooks is back because as an ACC hoops fan I can't get past my Grayson Allen ($4,700) bias -- and I mean that in a negative way. Desmond Bane ($3,500) is a decent value play if Brooks misses, and Justise Winslow ($3,800) would be a risk-reward dart throw.
WAS: Davis Bertans (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
Deni Avdija ($3,500) becomes a desirable value option if Bertans sits. Avdija is probably fine if you're loading up on elites, regardless.
DEN: JaMychal Green (shoulder) - OUT
DEN: Paul Millsap (knee) - OUT
DEN: Gary Harris (thigh) - OUT
Rather than flesh this out here, I'll identify my favorite Nuggets options later in the article.
ELITE PLAYERS
With a staggering amount of elites tonight, there are really three ways to go. Guard-heavy, front-court heavy, or a hybrid of the two are those options.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400), James Harden ($11,200), and Luka Doncic ($11,000) top the slate. These are outstanding basketball players. I can't justify a reason to fade any of them outright. The Bucks are playing in close games, Harden is a multi-category beast with Durant out, and Doncic is a dynamic two-way threat. If I had to rank the trio, I would go Giannis, Harden and then Doncic, although Kyrie Irving's ($8,800) price makes for an excellent Nets pivot. The price difference there is going to make Irving very popular and could lower popularity for The Beard.
Nikola Jokic ($10,800) is at a salary worth considering, but you really need to trust the upside here, because there are some less-expensive center options to be had. One of those options is Joel Embiid ($10,400), and while he only comes at a $400 discount, he has a potentially exploitable spot if Porzingis sits.
Moving down, the Washington duo of Bradley Beal ($9,800) and Russell Westbrook ($9,200) comes into play. Both of them are perfect examples of suitable cash plays which could come in under the field in GPPs. Good plays are good plays regardless of what format you play in, but it's the popularity of the good plays that dictate proper GPP lineup-building. Due to the matchup, I think they will be slightly less popular. Nikola Vucevic ($10,000) rounds out the $10K level and is my second-favorite center play against the Nets, who have trouble against opposing bigs.
In the rest of the elite range, my favorite targets are Julius Randle ($9,100), Kawhi Leonard ($9,700) and Brandon Ingram ($8,000). I don't mind Paul George ($8,600) and Zion Williamson ($8,500) either, and to be honest, a lot of these targets are largely interchangeable. There isn't a lot of value down low tonight, so it makes sense to load your lineups up in this range.
One way to trim this field is to exclude the Pelicans players due to the back-to-back and instead favor the Clippers' elites. Randle is so dynamic on a nightly basis, and I think he's in a class by himself. He had a huge 26/15 double-double when he last faced the Kings.
EXPECTED CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS
Due to the slate's size, I slid the elite column down to accommodate $8K plays, and our injury section featured the best value targets. As a result, I'm combining the chalk and value categories to hit players at a wide variety of salary points.
Jamal Murray, DEN ($8,300) vs. WAS
The Wizards have been playing well recently, and they were able to squeak out a win against the Nuggets in the last game. Despite the loss, Murray was stellar with 35 points, nine rebounds and six assists. The game outcome may change, but I don't see much cause to think Murray will deviate from his recent form.
Khris Middleton, MIL ($7,600) vs. NO
Due to recency bias, Middleton may be less popular tonight, but you can't deny the upside Middleton can provide in close games. He broke 40 FDFP in his last game against the Pelicans, and his recent blowup against Sacramento (32 points, eight rebounds) is a great example of his boom potential.
Harrison Barnes, SAC ($6,200) @ NYK
Barnes is kind of at a weird spot just below the median, but he looked good playing 37 minutes after missing three games. He injects a lot of frontcourt production and can stretch the floor with a decent perimeter game, so I like him to put up a value-meeting number tonight.
Michael Porter, DEN ($5,700) vs. WAS
Porter checks all the boxes as a value play tonight. He's a starter, he averages well over 30 minutes and has a ton of upside. His numbers have been just OK, but they're still excellent relative to this salary. A 28 FDFP night would meet 5x value, and he hit that number the last time they played the Wizards.
Bruce Brown, BKN ($5,000) vs. ORL
Brown seems to find a way to produce in this star-studded lineup consistently. He's gone north of 30 FDFP in two of his last three games, and we only need 25 FDFP for him to meet 5x value. His low salary will give you added opportunity to spend up.
Rounding out the slate, here are some final budget adds to consider:
PG: Lonzo Ball, NOR ($6,600) @ MIL
PG: Monte Morris, DEN ($4,700) vs. WAS
SG: Josh Richardson, DAL ($4,700) @ PHI (revenge game)
PF: Taj Gibson, NY ($3,500) vs. SAC
