This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
FanDuel will exclude the early Nuggets-Knicks matchup and focus on the remaining six games for their main slate Saturday.
SLATE OVERVIEW
BKN (-3) vs. CHI O/U: 220
MIL (-5) vs. MIA O/U: 216
DAL (-5) vs. MEM O/U: 216.5
GSW (-9.5) vs. SAS O/U: 219.5
LAC (-1.5) @ SAC O/U: 215
BOS (-1) @ POR OU: 217
INJURIES
CHI Alex Caruso (hamstring) - OUT
The Bulls are snakebit with many ongoing injuries, and Caruso's is the most recent. Pivoting to the starters is preferable, as there isn't a pivot worth considering currently.
MIA Jimmy Butler (back) - OUT
MIA Bam Adebayo (thumb) - OUT
Barring any late-breaking news, Butler should be out today as previously announced. Adebayo is out for the foreseeable future, so Dewayne Dedmon ($5,800) and P.J. Tucker ($4,300) will see significant bumps in production moving forward.
MIL Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) - DOUBTFUL
Giannis is on track to miss again today. Pat Connaughton ($5,400) started in the last game but only managed 13 FP in the contest. A view at the gameflow suggests sticking with Bobby Portis ($6,400) and adding exposure to All-Star starter Khris Middleton ($7,400). There's also a chance that DeMarcus Cousins ($4,800) could make a minor impact.
MEM Kyle Anderson (back) - OUT
MEM Brandon Clarke (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
During Memphis' historic beatdown of the Thunder, the Grizzlies cleared the bench, and many new faces provided huge stat lines. Santi Aldama ($3,700) played almost 30 minutes and was impressive throughout. The addition of Clarke to the list also warrants a look at Xavier Tillman ($4,300).
DAL Kristaps Porzingis (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
Porzingis was out on Friday, and he may miss again on the tail end of the back-to-back. Maxi Kleber ($4,700) should be targeted in this scenario.
SAS Devin Vassell (thigh) - DOUBTFUL
Expect Thaddeus Young ($4,000) to have a more significant impact with Vassell sidelined for another game.
LAC Paul George (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
Reports indicate that he'll play Saturday but look to Marcus Morris ($4,300) as the primary beneficiary in the event of an absence.
SAC Harrison Barnes (foot) - DOUBTFUL
It looks like Barnes is out again. Terence Davis ($5,500) and Davion Mitchell ($4,500) have been excellent in picking up the slack with Barnes sidelined.
POR Damian Lillard (abdomen) - OUT
POR Anfernee Simons (ankle) - OUT
CJ McCollum ($8,200) is an obvious add with a short-handed backcourt. It appears that Dennis Smith ($4,400) will be the prime beneficiary during Lillard's extended absence, at least until Simons returns.
ELITE PLAYERS
We want to get Paul George ($9,100) involved if he plays. Beyond him, my favorite elite is probably Luka Doncic ($10,500), as his Mavericks are a slight favorite against the Grizzlies. I'm also fine with Stephen Curry ($10,700) in a favorable game against the Spurs. While viable, James Harden and Kevin Durant will be primarily faded due to their inflated cost. While I think they will perform well, I can upgrade my lineups by bypassing their lofty salaries. If I had to pick one, it would be Durant ($10,800), who put up a 38/11 line against the Bulls in their last matchup.
Also consider: Dejounte Murray, SAS ($9,800) @ GSW
EXPECTED CHALK AND CORE TARGETS
DeMar DeRozan ($8,600), Zach LaVine ($8,000) and Lonzo Ball ($6,500), CHI @ BKN
I'm a proponent of stacking the Bulls tonight against the Nets in what should be the highest-scoring matchup on the slate. Their last meeting was a 23-point blowout in Brooklyn's favor, but the Bulls are running hot after rebounding from terrible losses against the Pacers and the Rockets. The team has had a rest day in New York, and all three of these players had superlative lines against the Knicks on Thursday. I expect a much better result for the Bulls this time around.
De'Aaron Fox, SAC ($7,800) vs. LAC
I don't have complete confidence in Fox yet, but his recent pops in production make his upside appealing at below 8k. The two teams just played each other, and Fox had one of his better games of the month with a 23-point, five-assist line that also included three steals. Paul George's absence may have contributed to a better game from Fox, but the recent metric is enough to give Fox a good bit of exposure in the rematch.
Jrue Holiday, MIL ($7,900) vs. MIA
We already mentioned Middleton's obvious value in Giannis' absence, but Holiday is another vital piece of the puzzle when their All-Star is absent. He popped for 47 FP with Antetokounmpo out, executing a 26/8/6 line despite a low-scoring affair against the Raptors. The heat will be without Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, so I expect Holiday and Middleton to have another good day.
Jaren Jackson, MEM ($7,200) @ DAL
I endorsed Jackson for the historic blowout of the Thunder, and he paid off in spades with 42 FP. The total could have been higher if Memphis hadn't emptied their bench. Now is the crucial moment for Jackson to assume the leadership role many have expected this season. Morant's extended absence puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the team, but they have all the crucial pieces to survive his loss, especially inside where Jackson and Steven Adams are making Memphis a force to be reckoned with under the basket. Jackson can also get it done from anywhere, as he demonstrated with six three-pointers in the victory over the Thunder.
Kyle Lowry, MIA ($6,600) @ MIA
Nights like tonight are why Miami paid Lowry the big bucks to come south for the winter. I don't doubt Tyler Herro's ($7,300) solid contribution with Butler out, but this is the perfect scenario for Lowry to pop, as he did so many times in Toronto whenever Fred VanVleet was off the floor. The veteran exploded for 44 FP against Indiana Friday, which leads to my one concern about him. His results in back-to-backs haven't been great, and he's sat out one of them this season. Still, with Miami's absences, his services will be needed again as they were against the Pacers.
VALUE PLAYS
If you skimmed over the injury section, now is the time to go back and identify the low-priced values and potential late-swap targets to cover as injury news breaks throughout the day.
Dillon Brooks, MEM ($6,000) @ DAL
In the wake of Brooks' recent injury, it was smart to limit him against the Thunder in a game where his services were unnecessary. He should get back to his regular production tonight, and if he sees more than 30 minutes, he should have no problem meeting or beating value at this appealing salary point.
Buddy Hield, SAC ($5,500) vs. LAC
The slashing sharpshooter only played 22 minutes in the last game against the Clippers, but I expect a flipped script in this rematch from earlier in the week. His anemic production looks like an outlier event if you look at his recent production, where he's beaten value at this salary in six of his last 10 games. His previous two stat lines make this a variance play, but he's worth a shot in large-field tournaments.
Norman Powell, POR ($5,200) vs. BOS
If Powell can get past his quad injury, he will be an extremely valuable piece of Portland's offense while dealing with Damian Lillard's absence. With a day off to rest, Powell may see an increase in his minutes against the Celtics, but even 25 minutes on the floor could be enough to match value at this salary.
Also consider: Patty Mills, BKN ($4,900) vs. CHI, Gabe Vincent, MIA ($4,500) @ MIL
