This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Tonight's eight-game slate is very spaced out, with two games at 7:00 pm EDT, two an hour later, two at 9:00 pm and then a pair of late-night games. It's somewhat unusual for the contests to be separated in this manner, and it helps our late-swap activity a great deal. Let's look at tonight's numbers from Vegas to begin.
SLATE OVERVIEW
SAC @ CHA (-3.5) O/U: 239
MIL@ WAS (+9.5) O/U: 238.5
NYK @ BKN (-8) O/U: 224.5
SAS @ DET (+3) O/U: 219.5
IND @ DEN (-5) O/U: 225.5
LAC @ DAL (+1.5) O/U: 227
MEM @ PHO (-8.5) O/U: 228
LAL @ GSW (+2.5) O/U:222.5
(odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change)
Games/Teams to Target in BOLD
Games/Teams to Fade in ITALIC
INJURIES
WAS Raul Neto (rib) - QUESTIONABLE
WAS Davis Bertans (calf) - QUESTIONABLE
Rui Hachimura ($4,900) turned in a huge game against the Bucks on Saturday and should be popular. You could certainly do worse.
NYK Immanuel Quickley (groin) - QUESTIONABLE
NYK Elfrid Payton (hamstring) - DOUBTFUL
NYK Derrick Rose (COVID-19 protocols) - OUT
This is a wait-and-see situation at guard. If Quickley doesn't make it, Austin Rivers ($3,500) might be a sneaky play as he returns to action after the birth of his child.
BKN Kevin Durant (hamstring) - OUT
BKN Blake Griffin (CD) - OUT
We're in the same injury scenario tonight for the Nets. This will be a pace-down matchup for Brooklyn, and we'll touch on the top options later in the article.
SAN DeMar DeRozan (personal) - QUESTIONABLE
SAN LaMarcus Aldridge (CD) - OUT
There's no word yet on whether DeRozan will return to the team after his father's passing, but if he plays, I would be behind him in what should be an emotionally driven performance. The center job is now in the hands of Jakob Poeltl ($5,800), and I think he is good for 5x value as long as he stays below 6k.
DET Dennis Smith (COVID-19 protocols) - QUESTIONABLE
DET Wayne Ellington (groin) - DOUBTFUL
DET Svi Mykhailiuk (traded to Thunder) OUT
It should be a solid night from Delon Wright ($5,700), who offers good value. The impending arrival of Hamidou Diallo should be interesting, but since he's not yet with the team, Saben Lee ($3,700) should see a bit more run if Dennis Smith remains out.
LAC Kawhi Leonard - POSSIBLE REST
LAC Serge Ibaka (back) - QUESTIONABLE
After a colossal beatdown by the Pelicans on Sunday, the Clippers need to regroup. Kawhi is likely to sit as per usual on a back-to-back, but Paul George ($7,900) only played 23 minutes in the loss and should be ready to go against Dallas. My exposure to him should be pretty high. If Leonard sits, Marcus Morris ($3,800) would see an uptick in production.
ELITE PLAYERS
Let's begin in the 10k range with Russell Westbrook ($10,200). He had a massive game in a losing effort against the Bulls on Saturday, and I see no reason to doubt him after that 72 FP performance. There's a minuscule chance that the heroic effort could force him to sit for rest, but at this point, we have no reports to suggest a scratch. While James Harden ($11,300) is virtually matchup-proof, this game's slow pace is worthy of some concern. He missed the first game against the Knicks, so we have no previous information, but I'll be under the field for him. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100) scored a triple-double on the front end of this set with the Wizards, and he is definitely in play as a top elite again tonight. The center position is very light tonight, so MME players could undoubtedly build some lineups around the center position with Nikola Jokic ($11,000), but the values further down are worthy enough to offset gains you could make at other positions with the cap savings. LeBron James ($10,500) and Luka Doncic ($10,200) could come out as the lowest-rostered options in this range, so I like them as GPP plays. Against Golden State, I favor James slightly over Doncic due to pace concerns.
In the 9k range, the over/under for the Kings-Hornets game is highly favorable, and I like a stack of De'Aaron Fox ($9.000) and LaMelo Ball ($8,500) in the two PG slots. It's also hard to stay away from Stephen Curry ($9,400) at a reduced price, and he usually tends to show up when he faces LeBron. There's an argument for Julius Randle ($9,200). While he tends to be matchup-proof, it may be more prudent to lower your rostership percentage a bit with Randle due to this game's slower pace. With multiple injuries for the Knicks at guard, Kyrie Irving ($9,300) may be the one player who doesn't suffer the ill effects of the game's pace, and I like him much better than Harden in this spot.
EXPECTED CHALK
Kristaps Porzingis, DAL ($8,100) vs. LAC
The Clippers are licking their wounds after getting clobbered by the Pelicans, and to make matters worse, they are on a back-to-back and have injury concerns at center. Porzingis is my top Dallas player in this matchup for a couple of reasons. Firstly, we get the usual PF designation on FanDuel, so in essence, we can roster two centers. Also, the severe cost differential between Porzingis and Doncic is so vast that the FP-per-dollar difference will likely lean heavily in Porzingis' direction in a potentially exploitable scenario under the basket.
Khris Middleton, MIL ($7,400) @ WAS
Middleton was heavily involved Saturday on the front end of this set with the Wizards, although his assist and rebound totals boosted his results. He averages a bit more than the 12 shot attempts he made against Washington, so if he can up his volume, a good total could be on the horizon once again.
Jerami Grant, DET ($7,300) vs. SA
I would give Grant a slight downgrade if DeMar DeRozan returns, but he's easily the top scoring option in Detroit, and his salary is at a three-week low. This game's pace is just so-so, but with most of the offense flowing through Grant, he's hard to avoid.
Terry Rozier, CHA ($6,700) vs. SAC
Rozier's early exit Saturday due to a leg injury resulted in a $200 drop in salary. He was available to return, so the injury isn't serious. We've already highlighted the Ball/Fox showdown in this uptempo affair, but I think Rozier is a sneaky way to get involved at shooting guard. If you look at Rozier's recent totals, he beats 5x value at this salary about 40 percent of the time, and the pace should give him a boost in shot volume.
VALUE PLAYS
Richaun Holmes ($6,700),Buddy Hield ($6,500) and Harrison Barnes ($6,300) SAC @ CHA
I'm not endorsing that you go with ALL of these guys, but it's a further illustration of how much I like this game tonight. I didn't put Marvin Bagley in the mix because Holmes is playing out of his mind currently, and the matchup for him at center is much better than Bagley's, who might have to deal more with Gordon Hayward. Hield's upside is great for GPPs, and Barnes has a reliable floor that is ideal for cash games.
Montrezl Harrell, LAL ($5,900) @ GSW
With Marc Gasol and Anthony Davis still out, Harrell should receive plenty of run and has an experience advantage over James Wiseman. Harrell and Draymond Green are pretty familiar with each other and know each other's bag of tricks, and he could be Harrell's primary obstacle to a superlative total. Still, Harell's salary is decent, and he is a good contrarian pick at the center spot.
Josh Richardson, DAL ($5,100) vs. LAC
With the Clippers on a back-to-back, I am a big fan of Richardson in this spot. His obvious two-way talent is way undervalued, and he's put together a nice string of performances since the break. His salary has gone up $400 over the past week, but he still doesn't have to do much to beat value at this price. 30 FP would be an ideal floor for him tonight.
Caris LeVert, IND ($4,100) @ DEN
This value pick won't get past the sharps this time around. I wouldn't be surprised to see and 80 percent roster rate in most contests for LeVert. He played 27 minutes in his return, and that number should continue to increase over time. He could be in line to absolutely crush value at this salary level if his shot warms up.
