This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Injury scenarios have turned the Eastern Conference Finals into a variance-filled minefield for DFS players. Both Trae Young (foot) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) may miss Game 5, and the Hawks could also be without Clint Capela (eye).
We will approach today's article assuming that Giannis will be out and provide scenarios depending on Young and Capela's status. For an in-depth look at various single-game strategies, read my recent article on the subject.
To begin, let's look at a winning lineup from a Game 4 cash contest:
2x: Khris Middleton 70.2
1.5x: Jrue Holiday 51.75
1.2x: Lou Williams 49.2
UTIL: Bogdan Bogdanovic 41.1
UTIL: Kevin Huerter 35.7
The winning lineup made the right moves when Trae Young was ruled out, but the third quarter injury to Giannis sealed the deal for this roster build, as Holiday and Middleton could no longer be overtaken by the All-Star.
MULTIPLIER CANDIDATES
Khris Middleton, MIL ($14,500)
Jrue Holiday, MIL ($14,000)
Trae Young, ATL ($15,500) *if he plays
Lou Williams, ATL ($10,000) *if Young is limited/out
Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL ($13,500) *if Young is limited/out
John Collins, ATL ($10,000) *if Capela is out
Brook Lopez, MIL ($11,000) *if Capela is out
Once Giannis departed Game 4, the Bucks continued to rely on their core and didn't give many minutes to their bench, and P.J. Tucker disappeared from the rotation entirely. As a result of this data, Middleton and Holiday appear to be the safest multiplier calls in Antetokounmpo's absence. They can be liberally swapped between the 2x and 1.5x multipliers if you are firing multiple lineups, but Middleton at 2x and Holiday at 1.5x are the safest cash calls.
A go for Young would obviously alter this initial build and include him, but an absence would allow Williams or Bogdanovic an opportunity to slip into the 1.2x multiplier. Although Capela is likely to return, late news about his eye could also bring John Collins and Brook Lopez into view as multiplier candidates. As you'll see, a Middleton/Holiday/Young build will kill a lot of utility value, so it appears that you'd have to either take some utility risk or move Holiday out to include Young.
UTILITY CANDIDATES
Bobby Portis, MIL ($10.500)
Kevin Huerter, ATL ($12,500)
John Collins, ATL ($10,000) *if Capela is limited
P.J. Tucker, MIL ($8,000)
Pat Connaughton, MIL ($7,500)
Onyeka Okongwu, ATL ($8,500) *if Capela is out
Thanasis Antetokounmpo ($6,500), Elijah Bryant ($6,000), MIL *UTILITY PUNTS
If Young is active and in the multiplier, you'll almost certainly be forced to play one of these Milwaukee punts. I picked these two players because their usage jumps dramatically when Giannis is off the floor, but we are talking an uptick from zero here. You can also get away with Tucker and Connaughton with Middleton, Holiday and Young in the multiplier.
With Lou Williams and Bogdan Bogdanovic likely seeing heavy usage regardless of Young's status, Bobby Portis comes into play with increased usage in Giannis' absence. Using Williams in the multiplier gives us a lot of flexibility, as Kevin Huerter, Brook Lopez and John Collins emerge as viable utility candidates.
Based on these utility developments, Williams is looking more and more like the most feasible 1.2x multiplier. However, arguments could certainly be made for Lopez, Bogdanovic, Huerter, and certainly Young, if he plays.
ALTERNATIVE BUILDS
Huerter and Lopez are two players who will provide some uniqueness in your builds, followed by a complete punt at one of the utilities. By adding someone like Thanasis Antetokounmpo or Elijah Bryant, you can get Young into the multiplier and someone like Tucker or Connaughton the other utility, but it's definitely a high-variance play. Some experimentation with Clint Capela also yielded interesting results, as adding him with Williams allowed us to get Portis and Connaughton/Tucker into our utility spots.
Antetokounmpo and Young loom large as the big stories here, but don't fret too much about Young's status. You've solved your Giannis quandary with Middleton and Holiday, and Atlanta has enough talent to compensate for Young if he doesn't play. Keep Young in if you are keen to play him. Pivoting will be easy if you hear bad news for the Atlanta floor general.
