FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

It's a relatively quiet night by Friday standards in the NBA with only seven games on the slate. However, there are plenty of matchups with postseason implications, with the Rockets-Trail Blazers clash the only one between two true non-contenders. It's also a good sign for DFS purposes that five games list projected totals of at least 220 points.

Slate Overview

Utah Jazz (-3) at Charlotte Hornets (O/U: 231.5 points)

Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons (-2.5) (O/U: 218.5 points)

Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks (-2) (O/U: 220.0 points)

Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves (-1.5) (O/U: 228.0 points)

New York Knicks at Miami Heat (-5.5) (O/U: 216.0 points)

Philadelphia 76ers (-5.5) at Los Angeles Clippers (O/U: 222.5 points)

Houston Rockets (-3.5) at Portland Trail Blazers (O/U: 235.0 points)

The Jazz-Hornets, Warriors-Hawks, Mavericks-Timberwolves and Knicks-Heat matchups all have particularly hefty stakes in terms of postseason qualification probability or positioning for at least one of the teams involved. That and the fact each squad boasts multiple explosive players should help keep each game largely competitive and help generate fairly strong DFS environments.

A couple of other noteworthy aspects of the ledger pertain to the final two games of the night. The 76ers-Clippers battle carries a relatively narrow spread considering the disparity in the standings between the clubs, so a high-salary player like Joel Embiid may still see plenty of minutes. And the one matchup between two clubs with zero playoff hopes - the Rockets-Trail Blazers - could well turn out to be the most conducive to DFS play due to their poor defenses, which is also implied by the slate-high projected total.

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following is a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate, including those carrying injury designations that aren't listed in this section.

Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN (forearm): QUESTIONABLE

Towns has been able to play through his forearm issue for multiple games, but if he sits, Naz Reid would likely draw the start at center while the usage for the remainder of the starting five would rise.

Stephen Curry, GSW (foot): OUT

In Curry's absence, Jordan Poole is expected to draw another start at point guard while the usage for the remainder of the starting five should see a sizable boost. 

Julius Randle, NYK (quadriceps): QUESTIONABLE

If Randle were unable to play, Obi Toppin would potentially start at power forward.

Jimmy Butler, MIA (ankle): QUESTIONABLE

If Butler can't go, Caleb Martin (knee) and Max Strus would likely log the majority of minutes at small forward.

Josh Hart, POR (knee): OUT

In Hart's ongoing absence, CJ Elleby should start at shooting guard.

Other notable injuries:

Paul George, LAC (elbow): OUT

Norman Powell, LAC (foot): OUT

Jusuf Nurkic, POR (foot): OUT

Tyler Herro, MIA (knee): QUESTIONABLE

Kyle Kuzma, WAS (knee): OUT

Anfernee Simons, POR (quadriceps): QUESTIONABLE

Robert Covington, POR (hand): QUESTIONABLE

Mitchell Robinson, NYK (back): OUT

Bojan Bogdanovic, UTA (hand): OUT

John Collins, ATL (finger, foot): OUT

Elite Players

We have three players with five-figure salaries on Friday's slate – Joel Embiid ($11,200), Luka Doncic ($10,400) and James Harden ($10,000).

Embiid is coming off posting 62.5 FD points versus the Lakers on Wednesday and has topped 50 in five of the last six overall, a sample that includes a tally of 71.7 FD points against the Magic.

Doncic has actually produced under 40 FD points in two of the last three games, but he'd scored 51.6 to 66.3 in the three games prior and comes into Friday's rematch with the Timberwolves well-rested after taking Wednesday off.

Harden has notched over 40 FD points in five of the last six games and fell just short in the other outing during that sample  with 39.8.

Expected Chalk

Other likely chalk plays include:

Trae Young, ATL ($9,800)

Young has scored 35 to 71.2 FD points in eight straight and dropped 44.1 FD points during the first meeting with the Warriors.

Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN ($9,700)

If Towns is able to continue playing through his forearm injury, he should continue to be very popular against the Mavericks, against which he posted 43.1 FD points two games ago.

LaMelo Ball, CHA ($8,900)

Ball has dropped over 40 FD points in six consecutive outings and managed 43.7 in his previous game versus the Jazz.

Donovan Mitchell, UTA ($8,500)

Mitchell has produced between 43 to 54.6 FD points in five of the last six games and his name value always keeps him in plenty of lineups.

Cade Cunningham, DET ($8,200)

Cunningham has posted over 40 FD points in four of the previous five games and has exceeded 33 in two of three meetings against the Wizards this season.

Key Values 

D'Angelo Russell, MIN vs. DAL ($5,900)

This may well be a season-low salary for Russell, who's required over a $7K investment to roster most of the year. The dynamic wing's value decrease comes on the heels of a pair of sub-20-FD-point tallies in the last four games. However, other than those outliers, Russell has mostly been providing his usual level of production. Even factoring in those two subpar efforts, he's averaging 32.0 FD points in 14 post-All-Star break appearances and just put up 31 against the Mavericks two games ago. Dallas has been tough on shooting guards all season, yet Russell is averaging 18.0 points, 6.3 assists and 2.7 rebounds per game across 33.3 minutes in three outings against them and has delivered over 5x return on current salary in 39 of 59 games.

Alperen Sengun, HOU at POR ($5,200)

Sengun has logged at least low-20 minutes for five straight games and made good use of them, averaging 27.9 FD points over that span. The big man has proven a relatively reliable scorer and has been solid on the boards, leaving him poised for another potential strong return on investment Friday versus a Trail Blazers team struggling down low in the absence of Jusuf Nurkic. Portland is allowing the third-highest offensive efficiency to centers (34.4 percent) and 55 FD points per game to the position, and the Blazers are also conceding NBA-high 47.8 percent offensive efficiency to second-unit players.

Danilo Gallinari, ATL vs. GSW ($4,800)

Gallinari is set to continue starting at power forward for the sidelined John Collins (finger/foot) on Friday, and after sitting out Wednesday due to Achilles soreness, he's off the injury report. The veteran has scored between 20.3 to 37.5 FD points in six of his last seven games, and he's been a more productive offensive player at home with averages of 12.1 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.6 assists across 26 minutes per State Farm Arena appearance. The Warriors are tough on power forwards overall, but Gallinari's floor-spacing capability meshes well with the fact Golden State is ranked in the bottom-half of the league with 46.4 percent shooting allowed to fours.

ALSO CONSIDER:  Tobias Harris, PHI at LAC ($6,100); Drew Eubanks, POR vs. HOU ($6,100); Duncan Robinson, MIA vs. NYK ($3,800)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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