This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals is on the docket tonight with a single-game contest offering. Both the Bucks and the Hawks took improbable paths past the East frontrunners and now find themselves vying for a spot in the Big Game.
We'll first look at the viable multiplier candidates, attempt to deduce some Utility value, and present some alternative, contrarian build ideas to conclude the article. For a more in-depth look at various single-game strategies, read my recent article on the subject.
SLATE OVERVIEW
ATL @ MIL (-8) O/U: 226
Milwaukee went 2-1 against the Hawks in the regular season, with Atlanta taking the most recent game, 111-104. In Milwaukee's 120-109 win over the Hawks, Giannis Antetokounmpo returned to the court after a six-game absence and only scored 15 points in 26 minutes, so it's wise to take that into account when looking at game history. Interestingly, Trae Young missed two of these games and had a rough night versus the Bucks in the one game where he appeared. Since Young is the unquestioned engine of the Atlanta offense, it's important to note Young's previous struggles against Milwaukee and will be one of the most significant variables as we get our first glimpse of this series.
INJURIES TO MONITOR
ATL Kevin Huerter (ankle) -PROBABLE
ATL Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
Huerter is expected to play, but Bogdanovic's status for Game 1 is up in the air. Both of these players have immense utility value and could prove essential down the line in specific builds.
MULTIPLIER CANDIDATES
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL ($16,500)
Khris Middleton, MIL ($13,500)
Trae Young, ATL ($15,000)
John Collins, ATL ($12,500)
Jrue Holiday, MIL ($12,000)
Brook Lopez, MIL ($11,500)
Clint Capela, ATL ($11,000)
Right off the bat, I'm keen to limit my exposure to Young. I'm sure he'll put up a decent number, but when we have so little information on a matchup, it's best to go with the data we have and adjust as the series continues. Based on Young's meager stat line and a lack of experience against the Bucks, it seems better to go with Clint Capela or John Collins as the primary Atlanta option. Both players can save us a good bit of cash for our Utility builds.
On the Milwaukee side, I think you still have to give Giannis multiplier consideration despite a few concerns. Although he improved a bit at the free-throw line, Antetokounmpo was visibly exhausted toward the end of Game 7, and there's some merit to thinking that he's being overworked and showing some wear and tear. Conversely, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton looked just fine in the closing moments of the semifinals. Holiday's shot failed him in a few games against the Nets, and due to a bit of recency bias, he's my second-favorite play for Milwaukee. I do not doubt that Middleton's roster percentage will be prohibitively high, but if we trust the narrative of a gassed Antetokounmpo, his insertion could prove to be worthwhile.
The battle inside should also prove interesting, and both Brook Lopez and Clint Capela have notched double-doubles against each other in the regular season. Capela holds a slight edge over Lopez in the rebound de[artent, but Lopez is the more prolific scorer. It makes more sense to diversify toward Capela for builds with a Milwaukee emphasis to provide some diversity. Still, an argument can be made for a correlation play between Holiday and Lopez as well.
In summing up the multiplier categories, Antetokounmpo in the 2x multiplier is probably the safest cash play, followed by a mixture of Holiday/Middleton and Capela/Lopez for the final two spots. For tournaments, I would experiment with flipping Middleton to the 2x multiplier and sprinkling in a bit of John Collins and Trae Young to broaden your opportunities in MME situations.
UTILITY CANDIDATES
Danilo Gallinari, ATL, ($9,500) (if Bogdanovic is out)
Kevin Huerter, ATL ($10,000)
P.J. Tucker, MIL ($8,500)
Lou Williams, ATL ($8,000) (if Bogdanovic is out)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL ($9,500) (if he plays)
While certain lineups will exclude Huerter immediately due to multiplier selections, the rest of these options are reachable with various multiplier builds. Tucker obviously holds the most security since his usage and production are more reliable in light of Bogdanovic's potential absence. If he can't go, both Gallinari and Lou Williams emerge as quality options. If Bogdanovic plays without any restrictions, I'm very inclined to take a chance with his upside and couple him with Tucker. Tucker is a virtual lock for the utility spot for cash games and tournaments, and you can mix and match any number of the remainder in the second spot.
ALTERNATIVE BUILDS
The status of Bogdanovic could allow for some contrarian action in the multiplier. If Bogdan isn't on a minute limitation, putting him in the 1.2x multiplier isn't a bad idea. If we faded Middleton or Giannis, we'd be able to fill out our utilities with a more effective combination of players. With Bogdanovic in play and a Giannis fade, we can get to players like John Collins, Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez into our utility slots while still keeping Middleton in a multiplier. This kind of build has less chance of being profitable with other guys like Huerter, Tucker or Gallinari because their upside is dampened due to usage. However, I find Gallinari to be very intriguing in a Bogdanovic absence. He could find his way into a 1.2 multiplier spot or two if Bogdanovic can't go.
